This week’s view: the fourth quarter regular meeting of the central bank’s monetary policy committee was held this week. Wang Menghui, Minister of housing and urban rural development, accepted an interview with Xinhua news agency. On the whole, the tone of meeting reasonable housing demand, promoting the healthy development of real estate and a virtuous cycle has not changed. Considering the current pressure on the real estate industry, there is still room for local policy fine-tuning and support measures to be gradually implemented under the principle of “housing, housing and non speculation”. In terms of prefecture and city, the third batch of centralized land auction in Hangzhou has warmed up. Subsequently, under the adjustment of land auction rules and the improvement of capital environment, the marginal improvement of land auction in some cities is not ruled out, but the local heat is expected to show differentiation. In terms of investment suggestions, the short-term industry liquidity crisis has not been eliminated, the policy game space is still in place, the medium and long-term industry bottoms out and stabilizes, and the leading real estate enterprises will benefit more from the warmth of policies and stand out with comprehensive advantages. It is suggested to pay attention to Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) . The property management and business management sectors have broad industrial space, stable stock and strengthened independent development. Under the trend of increasing policy support and concentration, mainstream participants have great prospects. They are optimistic about property management leaders with outstanding comprehensive strength and continuous good operation, such as country garden service and poly property, as well as commercial operators occupying high-quality tracks in shopping centers and strong asset light output strength, Such as Xingsheng commerce, etc. From the perspective of industrial chain, it is suggested to pay attention to waterproof faucet Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) .
Policy environment monitoring: 1) Hangzhou: the third batch of centralized land supply has warmed up, and all 35 residential plots have been sold; 2) The central government reiterated to meet the reasonable housing demand and promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of real estate.
Market operation monitoring: 1) the turnover of new houses continues to rise and is expected to stabilize and improve gradually. This week (12.18-12.24) 57000 new houses and 13000 second-hand houses were sold respectively, up 10.8% and 2% month on month. In December, the average daily turnover of new houses decreased by 22.3% year-on-year, 2.6pct lower than that in November. At the end of the year, the policy of mortgage side was eased, and the turnover is expected to improve gradually. 2) the proportion of improved demand was flat month on month. In the transaction of commercial houses in 32 cities in November 2021, the proportion of units above 90 Ping was flat month on month , accounting for 77.7%. 3) Inventory accumulated month on month, facing upward pressure. The inventory of evidence collection in 16 cities was 104.15 million square meters, up 1.3% month on month. Under the pressure of actively obtaining evidence, pushing the plate and removing chemicals, the inventory is facing upward pressure. 4) The land transaction and premium rate fell, and the proportion of the third tier increased. Last week, 9.145 million square meters of land supply and construction area and 22.507 million square meters of transaction construction area in Baicheng decreased by 49.4% and 7.5% month on month; The transaction premium rate was 1.6%, down 1.7pct month on month. Among them, the first, second and third tier transactions accounted for 1.1%, 37.3% and 61.6% respectively, with a month on month decrease of 14.8pct, 22.1pct and 36.9pct respectively.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: this week, real estate enterprises issued domestic bonds of 5.14 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 9.41 billion yuan and overseas bonds of 400 million US dollars; The range of domestic and foreign issuance interest rates is 2.8% – 8%, and the comparable issuance interest rates have increased and decreased compared with the previous time. 2) Trust: collective trust issued 4.86 billion yuan this week, an increase of 1.88 billion yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector rose 1.23% this week, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen by 300 (- 0.67%); the current PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 8.41 times, and the valuation is at the 17.98% quantile in recent five years. This week, the net capital inflow of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north is Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) ; the net capital inflow to the south is that of the top three real estate enterprises serving country garden, rongchuang China and poly property.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Large scale impairment risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
