Report summary:
Copper aluminum, diamond lithium and precious metal plates are recommended
This week (12.20-12.24) Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.39%, CSI 300 index fell by 0.67%, SW nonferrous index fell by 5.13%, Comex gold rose by 0.64% and silver rose by 2.46%. LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in the prices of major industrial metals changed by 3.16%, 1.60%, 4.02%, 1.37%, 2.40% and 1.90% respectively; LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in the inventories of major industrial metals Changes by type: – 1.57%, 0.14%, – 1.12%, – 0.86%, – 2.15% and 2.28%.
Industrial metals: steady growth and stable demand, European energy prices rise, and industrial metal prices continue to rise
Core view: the Federal Reserve’s negative outlook is exhausted. China’s economic data in November showed that the margin of real estate investment has improved, and it is expected to grow steadily next year. European energy prices have risen sharply, supporting the rise of industrial metal prices. In terms of copper, due to the impending end of the year and the impact of the epidemic, spot transactions are light, low inventory or support prices. In terms of aluminum, the supply side continued to limit production, and European natural gas prices hit record highs, resulting in the expectation of production reduction. The cost continued to decline, the inventory was accelerated this week, the weekly inventory was 46000 tons to 860000 tons, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum rebounded to 3956 yuan / ton. Benefiting from China’s steady growth policy, it is optimistic about industrial metals next year. Focus on: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Ye Chiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd(601388) , etc.
New energy Metals & small metals: the supply decreased at the end of the year, the contradiction between supply and demand intensified, and the price of lithium carbonate accelerated
Core view: in terms of cobalt, the price of raw materials in China is rising, and the spot inventory of mainstream cobalt salt enterprises is less. It is expected that there may be active stock demand in the downstream from the end of December to the beginning of January, and the price of cobalt salt may continue to rise. In terms of lithium, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars reached 364500 in mid November, an increase of 25.3% month on month, a new high in the year. The spot quantity of China’s lithium salt plants decreased significantly in recent two months, and the tight supply and demand supported the acceleration of lithium salt prices. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) .
Precious metals: the GDP growth of the United States slowed down in the third quarter, and the European energy crisis exacerbated inflation, supporting gold prices
Core view: affected by the interference of the epidemic and the tightening of the global supply chain, the GDP growth of the United States in the third quarter hit a new low since the second quarter of last year, the electricity price in Europe rose rapidly, and the rising crude oil price pushed up the inflation expectation. After the expectation of interest rate increase is gradually digested, the attention of inflation expectation may increase to support the gold price. Based on the continued impact of the new Omicron virus on the economy and the worries about inflation and even stagflation next year, we continue to be optimistic about the investment value of gold. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Zhaojin gold industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk statement
Demand recovered less than expected, supply released more than expected, and policy uncertainty increased.
