The Chinese market of international brands is still adjusting and is optimistic about the rebound after 2022q2
Key recommended targets this week:
1. Sports shoes and clothing retailer leader: taobo;
2. Sports and leisure leaders: Anta sports, Li Ning, Bosideng, Hla Group Corp.Ltd(600398) , Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) ;
3. OEM leading inflection point combination: Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Shenzhou International, Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) ;
4. Subject of epidemic prevention: Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) .
Nike’s revenue in Greater China is affected by the supply chain. It is recommended that fy2023’s performance is expected to rebound under the low base
(1) Taobo: fy2022q3’s omni-channel sales fell by 20-30% year-on-year, which was narrower than that of peers and Nike’s wholesale channels. The short-term pressure on performance was mainly due to the repeated epidemic and the arrival rate of main brands. In the short term, the company’s inventory structure was healthy and benefited from the rich resources of high-level large stores, the full amount of orders, the arrival rate was more advantageous than that of peers, and Baosheng international was more affected by the supply chain In Shenzhen, the revenue fell sharply by 30.3% in November and 28.3% in 2021q3; In the long run, the proportion of fy2022q3 large stores has further increased, and the benefit advantage has continued to lead. The e-commerce of industries, platforms and stores has continued to improve, and the logic of market share and profitability has not changed. We have tracked that the sales of Nike / Adidas in China are picking up. According to the data of online Ali’s 2021w51 week, the year-on-year growth rates of Nike / Adidas / SKECH / puma are + 33.8% / + 30.5% / + 90.8% / + 24% respectively. It is expected that the company’s fy2023 performance will be more flexible under the low base.
(2) Nike revenue side: fy2022q2’s revenue under currency neutrality was flat year-on-year, and fy2022h1’s revenue under currency neutrality increased by 6% year-on-year. By region, fy2022q2’s revenue under currency neutrality in North America / EMEA / Greater China / Asia Pacific was + 12% / + 6% / – 24% / – 6% year-on-year respectively, of which the direct revenue in Greater China was – 21%, and the online and wholesale revenue decreased by 27%, mainly due to the delay of new products and the epidemic in China caused by the shortage of supply chain Repeatedly affect passenger flow. In terms of supply chain, all factories of the company have been reopened, and the production capacity of shoes / clothes has recovered to 80% of that before the factory closure. The closure of factories in Vietnam in March affected the production of 130 million products. The company expects the fy2023 supply chain to be fully restored.
The online Ali channel of Chinese sports brands still leads at a high speed. Anta sports and Li Ning are recommended
(1) Sports brand industry: according to the weekly data of Ali department, Nike is 311 million yuan (+ 33.8%), Adidas is 177 million yuan (+ 30.5%), Li Ning is 181 million yuan (+ 113.2%), FILA is 174 million yuan (+ 116.5%), Anta is 144 million yuan (+ 63.4%), Tebu is 55 million yuan (- 24.6%), Nb is 55 million yuan (+ 44.1%), and skygate is 52 million yuan (+ 90.8%).
(2) Anta Sports: main brand Beijing Winter Olympic Games preheating marketing Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) At the same time, the official account of the new capital airport will be opened. The national sports team sports shoes and apparel will be displayed in the store. The national flag and champion products of the national team will be displayed and displayed. The Beijing Olympic Winter Olympics and winter Paralympic Games will be released continuously through the public number. Anta’s main brand will continue to be optimistic about the product and brand upgrading with the help of the double Olympic Games. On December 23, Archaeopteryx Shenzhen Center ASC (Vientiane Tiandi store) opened. It is expected that Amer will realize five “1 billion euro” plans by 2025. (3) Li Ning: offline stores have been actively expanded and launched the “five city plan”. Five flagship stores will be located in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenyang, Liuzhou and Nanjing. As of December 25, the first full category flagship store in Guangxi (Liuzhou Xingguang flagship store) and the first flagship store in Liaoning have been opened (Shenyang middle street flagship store) and Shanghai Huaihai Middle Road flagship store. The contracted skiers are expected to launch ski categories before and after the Winter Olympics. Li Ning continues to expand the brand / category / SKU under the single brand strategy as the sponsor of the Canadian skating team. On December 16, the newly contracted snowboarder Zhang Jiahao is expected to launch ski categories before and after the Winter Olympics.
Risk tip: the epidemic has repeatedly affected the terminal retail environment and exacerbated the shortage of international brand supply chain.
