Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) ); titanium dioxide ( Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ), carbon fiber ( Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) ), spandex and polyurethane ( Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) ), food additives ( Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) ), zeolite / OLED ( Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) ), pesticides ( Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) ), compound fertilizer ( Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ), etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, However, we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (heavy oil in Canada, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risks and further fermentation of trade risks on oil prices. It is recommended to speed up the construction of polyester industrial chain integration and enter the excellent private refining enterprises ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ) with large-scale refining and C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking ） ； Follow Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemical products rose, the oil price of core raw materials rose, LPG gas fell, LNG gas rose, and coal price was flat; Prices of aromatics and fluorine chemical products rose. China’s chemical price index CCPI + 0.5% this week; The price of core raw materials is + 3.6%, imported lpg-2.1%, domestic LNG + 3.2%, and bituminous coal is flat.
On the raw material side, the prices of some aromatics products increased and the prices of some C4 products decreased; On the product side, the prices of some fluorine chemical products rose, while the prices of some pesticides, rubber and amino acids fell.
Oil prices rose this week, Iran’s seventh round of negotiations ended, and European natural gas prices soared again.
This week, the settlement price of oil distribution rose from 73.5 to 76.1 US dollars / barrel (up 3.6%), the settlement price of us oil rose from 70.9 to 73.8 US dollars / barrel (up 4.1%); the US commercial crude oil inventory was 424 million barrels (Mom – 1.1%), and the US crude oil drilling number was 480 (mom + 1.1%).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, the market generally expects that OPEC + will not adjust the current output strategy at the meeting in January next year, or will maintain a small increase rhythm of 400000 barrels / day. The seventh round of negotiations in Iran is over and waiting for the restart of a new round of negotiations. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, the epidemic situation in some countries is severe and control measures are strengthened, but the spread rate of Omicron has not reached the previous rapid level of delta, and the market anxiety has not continued to increase. Recently, the price of natural gas in Europe has soared again, which may still bring potential positive boost to the demand for crude oil in winter. In terms of policy, according to Longzhong information, the Federal Reserve continues to clarify its expectation of shrinking QE and raising interest rates next year, the US dollar maintains a narrow fluctuation, and suppresses the negative impact on oil prices. Geopolitically, according to Longzhong information, the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue have been suspended temporarily, waiting for the resumption of a new round of negotiations before the end of the year, which has a limited impact on oil prices.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: this week (12.16-12.22) the price of natural gas in Europe rose significantly. NBP was + 32.99%, TTF was + 33.88%, and North American futures were mixed, HH was – 0.16%, AECO was + 3.82%. In terms of spot, HH spot was + 0.43%, AECO in Canada was + 5.05%, and TTF in Europe was + 33.09%. In terms of price difference, the average arrival price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 11383 yuan / ton The average sales price of the terminal is 4949 yuan / ton, and the price difference is – 651 yuan / ton (- 11.63%).
Inventory tracking: according to EIA data, as of December 17, the inventory of natural gas in the United States was 3362 billion cubic feet, The month on month (MOM) – 55 billion cubic feet (Mom – 1.61%, yoy – 6.50%) is still lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of December 17, the European natural gas inventory was 2295.2 billion cubic feet, Mom – 108.4 billion cubic feet (Mom – 4.51%, yoy – 24.07%). China’s price: the price of China’s main LNG producing areas continued to decline this week. As of December 23, the average price of main LNG producing areas was 4826 yuan / ton, up from – 1.17% last week, up from – 41.82% last year; the price of consumer places stabilized. As of December 23, the average price of main LNG consuming places was about 4966 yuan / ton, up from + 0.28% last week. The quotation of LNG terminal was 4945 yuan / ton , down from – 2.16% last week. View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase this week are tetrachloroethylene + 29%, chloroform + 17%, vitamin B5 + 11%, isooctanol + 7%, DOP + 7%, DMF + 7%, melamine + 6%, pure MDI + 5%, dimethylcyclosiloxane (DMC) + 4%. The important products with the highest price drop this week are trichlorosilane (light level) – 19%, vitamin B6 – 17%, maleic anhydride – 14%, hexanediamine – 10%, ammonium chloride – 7%, propylene oxide – 7%, acrylic staple – 6%.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to the photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon – 4%, trichlorosilane – 19%, soda ash (light – 4%, heavy – 3%), EVA (photovoltaic grade) – 4%, etc. chemicals related to the lithium battery industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) is the same, phosphoric acid + 4%, lithium carbonate (industrial grade + 4%, battery grade + 5%), iron phosphate is the same, industrial monoammonium phosphate (73%) is the same, and lithium hexafluorophosphate is the same.
The cost support is strong, the downstream refrigerant resumes high load operation, the market supply is scarce, and the price of tetrachloroethylene rises.
Vinyl chloride (East China) rose 28.6% to 9000 yuan / ton on Thursday. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the raw liquid chlorine (Shandong) rose 7.7% to 1400 yuan / ton this week to support the cost; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the downstream refrigerant R125 manufacturer gradually resumed high load operation, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the weather level II response has been launched in Shandong recently. Some tetrachloroethylene manufacturers operate at low load. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation of Zhejiang enterprises is blocked, and the supply of tetrachloroethylene is in short supply.
The cost is under pressure, some enterprises overhaul and stop, and the price of chloroform rises.
Chloroform (East China) rose 17.1% to 4800 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the raw liquid chlorine (Shandong) rose 7.7% to 1400 yuan / ton this week, and the cost side methane chloride enterprises were under pressure; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the demand of downstream enterprises is general; At the supply side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan and some manufacturers in East China, maintenance and parking are favorable.
Raw materials stopped falling and recovered, and the supply contracted, pushing up DOP prices.
DOP (East China) rose 7.0% to 9950 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the price of octanol stopped falling and rose again after 20 days, driving the firm offer of DOP merchants; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current downstream procurement is mainly just needed; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the operating rate of DOP this week was 3.4.99%, with a week on week ratio of -1.63pct, shrinking.
The slurry industry actively rushed to increase consumption, the market supply decreased, and the price of DMF increased.
DMF (East China) rose 6.5% to 16400 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the main manufacturers in the downstream slurry industry actively rush to work, the monthly start-up increased by 1-20% month on month, the increase of raw material consumption is favorable, and the food and pharmaceutical industries just need to be stable; On the supply side, according to Yingfu Baichuan and Luxi Shandong plants, the negative pressure was reduced for three days under the influence of environmental protection policies, and then the production was gradually increased. The production of Xinghua plant was stable, but the epidemic factors in the surrounding areas remained, the shipment rhythm was slow, the operation of other main plants was stable, and the DMF supply was reduced.
The downstream took goods one after another, the construction started to decline slightly, and the price of melamine recovered.
Melamine (Sichuan) rose 5.7% to 9200 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the downstream of China has successively taken goods, the shipment of enterprises has improved, the export volume continues to receive orders, some northern regions do not receive orders temporarily, mainly export, and the southwest region normally ships; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, at present, Chongqing Jianfeng is shut down for maintenance, and the resumption time is to be determined. Sichuan Meiqing is shut down for maintenance on December 19 and is expected to resume production by the end of January. One set of Jinhe melamine plant in Anhui is shut down for maintenance, and the output of one set is halved. Shandong Shuntian stopped three lines on December 23 and is expected to resume production three days later. The commencement of construction this week has declined slightly, resulting in a favorable supply side.
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation, lower downstream demand than expected, etc.
