Non bank sector investment story
Interpretation of important events this week: this week, the overall performance of the market fluctuated downward, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.67%, of which the brokerage sector fell 1.98% and the insurance sector fell 1.21%, and the overall performance was in line with the market. This week, the stock based turnover of the two cities was 1.18 trillion, down 6% month on month. The balance of the two financial institutions remained at 1.84 trillion, basically the same as last weekend. For the end of the year, we still maintain the core view of focusing on the layout of securities companies with wealth management characteristics, focusing on Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) with greater flexibility of wealth management. For the insurance sector, affected by industry regulation, the loss of agent team, the base number in the same period and other factors, insurance enterprises are under great pressure to make a good start. It is expected that the marginal improvement of asset side fundamentals will become the driving force to promote the recovery of insurance enterprises’ share prices in the second quarter of next year, and the relaxation of real estate enterprises’ financing is expected to promote the improvement of credit risk concerns, It is suggested to lay out high-quality leading insurance companies with historically low valuation. In addition, the CBRC issued document No. 47 to relax the restrictions on the investment scope of insurance funds in venture capital institutions. Insurance funds are expected to increase the investment scale of venture capital institutions and benefit high-quality venture capital institutions. It is suggested to focus on Lenovo holdings. ”
Sub segment view:
(1) Brokerage sector: this week, the CSRC solicited opinions on the new regulations for overseas listing of enterprises and further improved the supervision system for overseas listing. We have a positive outlook on the future policy and are optimistic about the policy dividends and business increment brought by the deepening reform of the capital market. From the perspective of liquidity, it is expected that the monetary policy will be relatively loose by the first quarter of next year. At the current time point , liquidity improvement + favorable policies + performance certainty. We are firmly optimistic about the cross year market of securities companies. We recommend securities companies with the main line of wealth management, such as Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , and focus on China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) h and East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) .
(2) Insurance sector: the marginal changes in the fundamentals of short-term insurance focus on the resolution of asset side risks, the relaxation of the real estate financing environment and the improvement of credit risk concerns. Considering that the valuation of the insurance sector is at a low level, it is recommended to lay out leading insurance enterprises at a low level. As for the subject matter, it is recommended to focus on AIA, which benefits from accelerating the expansion of the Chinese market and the opening-up dividends of insurance enterprises.
(3) Diversified financial sector: the cbcirc has relaxed the restrictions on the investment scope of venture capital investment institutions, which will help insurance funds to increase the investment scale of venture capital institutions and benefit the development of venture capital enterprises. It is suggested to focus on Lenovo holdings, which is backed by the industrial resources of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and has high-quality investment institutions such as Junlian and Hony.
Brokerage sector view
This week, brokerage stocks fell by 1.98%, The brokerage stocks with the top three share price increases are: China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) (+ 2.96%), Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) (+ 2.83%) and The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) (+ 1.24%) The policy outlook is more positive, optimistic about the reform policy dividend and business increment brought by the deepening reform of the capital market and the background of opening to the outside world. From the perspective of liquidity, under various factors such as great downward pressure on the economy and real estate risk events, we believe that the monetary policy will be relatively loose by the first quarter of next year. At the previous time point, liquidity improvement + favorable policies + performance certainty, we are firmly optimistic about the cross year market of securities companies, recommend wealth management main line securities companies such as Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , and focus on China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) h and East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) .
The CSRC solicited opinions on the new regulations on overseas listing and improved the supervision system for overseas listing of enterprises. On December 24, the CSRC publicly solicited opinions on two systems and rules related to overseas listing, including the administrative provisions of the State Council on overseas securities issuance and listing of domestic enterprises (Draft for comments) and the administrative measures for overseas securities issuance and listing filing of domestic enterprises (Draft for comments). The main contents include: 1) clarify the applicable subjects and behaviors: the direct or indirect overseas issuance and listing of domestic enterprises and the overseas behavior involving equity financing shall comply with the filing procedures, and clarify the definition of “indirect listing of domestic enterprises” in accordance with the principle of substance over form; 2) Clarify the implementation of unified filing management and refine relevant processes: the overseas issuance and listing of domestic enterprises shall be changed from administrative license to filing system, and the IPO filing materials shall include regulatory opinions issued by industry competent departments and safety assessment and review opinions issued by relevant departments; 3) Clarify the arrangements for the transition period: start the market incrementally, distinguish between initial public offering and refinancing, and ensure the smooth implementation of filing management; 4) Delimit the regulatory red line: specify six types of enterprises prohibited from listing abroad; 5) Bring vie structure into Supervision: on the premise of complying with domestic laws and regulations, vie structure enterprises that meet compliance requirements can be listed abroad after filing. 6) Clarify legal responsibilities and increase the cost of violation of laws and regulations. The core of the administrative provisions and the filing measures is to improve the system and promote development, which will provide clear guidance for overseas listing of qualified enterprises, and can better support enterprises to make use of overseas capital market for financing development in accordance with laws and regulations.
Insurance Sector View
This week, the insurance sector index fell 1.21%, Where New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (- 1.56%) / Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (- 1.42%) / China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (- 1.34%) / China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (+ 0.70%) The focus of marginal change is the resolution of asset side risks. The easing of the real estate financing environment has driven the improvement of the asset side fundamentals of insurance enterprises. Considering that the valuation of the insurance sector is at a low level and the fundamentals are expected to usher in marginal improvement, it is suggested to lay out the leading insurance companies at a low level. With regard to the subject matter, it is suggested to focus on AIA, which benefits from accelerating the expansion of the Chinese market and the dividends of insurance enterprises opening to the outside world.
Pension insurance institutions focus on the main pension industry and promote the transformation of the industry. Recently, based on the development of the third pillar of endowment insurance, the CBRC issued the notice on standardizing and promoting the development of endowment insurance institutions. The notice emphasizes that pension insurance institutions shall not operate insurance asset management business, terminate operation or divest relevant businesses and complete rectification before the end of 2022; It is required to clean up the existing personal pension security management products and complete the stock business cleaning before the end of 2023. The notice specifies that pension insurance institutions should focus on business areas with pension attributes such as commercial pension insurance, enterprise annuity fund management and pension security management, and actively participate in the construction of the third pillar of pension insurance. Since the establishment of the first endowment insurance company in December 2004, there are currently 10 endowment insurance companies in China. The issuance of this notice means that pension insurance companies will reduce the “unqualified” businesses and products, reduce the stock scale of medium and short-term financial products, gradually reduce the entrusted management scale of third-party insurance companies, and strengthen the focus of pension insurance on the main business attribute of pension.
