Key investment points
Market last week: light industry manufacturing sector rose. From December 20, 2021 to December 26, 2021, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.06%, and the light industry manufacturing index rose by 0.48%, ranking 11th among the 28 Shenwan industries; The rise and fall of light industry manufacturing index sub sectors from high to low are: household light industry (+ 1.76%), packaging and printing (+ 0.10%) and papermaking (- 1.70%).
Furniture: continue to be optimistic about the policy margin and relax the valuation and repair opportunities of the furniture sector. last week (December 20, 2021-december 26, 2021) the furniture sub segment rose 11.21%, leading the light industry segment. The early valuation of the furniture segment was mainly suppressed by the pessimistic expectation of real estate, and the margin of the real estate policy was relaxed. We continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair opportunities of the furniture segment. In the short term, the furniture to the countryside policy is expected to promote the penetration and consumption upgrading of furniture in rural areas and promote the steady growth of the industry. Medium and long term In the future, the development of China’s furniture industry is still in its early stage, and there is great room for improvement in per capita consumption, replacement frequency and market concentration. In terms of customization, we recommend [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] and [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] in combination with the proportion of bulk business income, accounts receivable risk and valuation level. We suggest paying attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] and [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ]. In terms of software, it is the first to accelerate the promotion of independent brands and sink the leading [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] in channel construction; Meanwhile, [ Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [Minhua holdings] are recommended.
E-cigarette: continue to be optimistic about the long-term growth potential of the e-cigarette industry after legalization, with SIMORE international as the first. The recent correction of e-cigarette sector is mainly due to the market’s concern about the pressure on industry growth after the implementation of regulatory policies. However, we believe that e-cigarettes, as harm reduction products, have a long-term development foundation and have become an important export industry. According to the prediction of the e-cigarette Industry Committee of China Electronic Chamber of Commerce, the export amount of e-cigarette will reach 138.3 billion yuan in 2021, and the e-cigarette production capacity of Chinese enterprises accounts for more than 95% of the global atomized e-cigarette production capacity. The introduction of regulatory policies is accelerated, the industry is moving towards the legalization stage, the technology of leading enterprises is mature, the product quality is excellent, and the share is expected to continue to increase. Continue to recommend atomization technology leader [smore international]; It is suggested to pay attention to the first brand of electronic cigarette in China [fog core technology]; Close cooperation with China Tobacco [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ] with high valuation cost performance; HNB recommends paying attention to enterprises with thick slurry flake production technology [ Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) ].
Papermaking: waiting for demand improvement. As of December 26, 2021, the price of carton board paper was 4997 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 114 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The price of corrugated paper was 3990.6 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 122 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The price of white cardboard was 6099.3 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of whiteboard was 4967.5 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 138 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The price of double copper paper was 5400 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of double offset paper was 5612.5 yuan / ton, down 13 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. The price of wood pulp was 5862.3 yuan / ton, an increase of 324 yuan / ton on a weekly basis.
Risk tip: power rationing policy affects production capacity, raw material price fluctuations, intensified Sino US trade friction, weak downstream demand, etc. Note: except for special notes, all currencies in the full text are RMB.
