Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: photovoltaic glass enterprises continue to promote the extension of industrial chain
The degree of integration will determine the quality of the enterprise: looking forward to the rapid growth of the photovoltaic glass production capacity in 2022, the total production capacity of the photovoltaic glass industry may exceed 76480t / D by the end of 2022, an increase of nearly 86% over the current production capacity of 41260t / D. the competitive pattern of the industry will change greatly. The cost may become a key factor to distinguish the enterprise quality, and the enterprises whose layout runs through the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain will have more competitive advantages. Large kilns with a capacity of more than 1000t / D will dominate the production of the original film, and small kilns may be phased out due to backward cost. Under the background of the double growth of the demand side of ultra white quartz sand, the supply elasticity is insufficient, and it will be in short supply next year. We believe that enterprises with a high degree of industrial chain integration should be preferred to invest in photovoltaic glass.
Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) : expand the production capacity of the original film and make up for shortcomings. In 2020, a total of 52.7663 million square meters of photovoltaic glass will be sold. It is expected that the deep-processing capacity will reach about 150 million square meters by the end of 2021, and the scale will increase significantly. However, the company's original production capacity is extremely insufficient, resulting in low gross profit margin. On December 24, Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) announced that it would acquire Fengyang Silicon Valley, a photovoltaic original chip manufacturing enterprise, by issuing shares and paying cash. It has three photovoltaic glass original chip production lines with a daily melting capacity of 650T / D and four 1000t / D production lines under planning. In the history of the company, a series of problems caused by the lack of self-sufficiency of the original film will be solved.
Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) : the expansion of production and the acquisition of quartz placer are promoted simultaneously. The company first disclosed the major asset purchase plan at the end of October 2021. It plans to purchase all the equity of Dahua mining and Sanli mining from fengsha group at a transaction consideration of RMB 3.65 billion. The two mines can supply the company with 6.6 million tons of high-quality quartzite ore every year in the future, It can produce 3.96 million tons of ultra white quartz sand (calculated according to the fact that each ton of quartzite can be processed into 0.6 tons of quartz sand), which can meet the production needs of 5.66 million tons of photovoltaic glass chips. According to our preliminary calculation, this layout can reduce the production cost of the company's photovoltaic chips by 72.21 yuan / ton (calculated by the mining cost of 20 yuan / ton).
Key sub industry tracking:
Glass: as of December 24, the national average price of glass was 2177.8 yuan / ton, down 1.44% month on month compared with the previous week. In the off-season, the demand was weak and the price fell somewhat. At the end of the year, the focus of the processing plant has gradually shifted to collection. The procurement is mainly replenishment on demand, and the inventory position is low. The total inventory of production enterprises in key monitoring provinces was 33.92 million weight boxes, an increase of 4.43% over last week. After five weeks of continuous decline, the manufacturer's inventory turned to increase, entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period. On the supply side, we expect that the contraction will accelerate in the next quarter or two, and the glass price will still have strong support in the medium and long term. At present, the mood is low near the off-season, but it is still the time point of high-quality layout. In the follow-up, we will continue to pay close attention to the stimulation of supply side contraction on the plate. We will continue to focus on recommending Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) integrated leading Lutheran glass, which has entered a new growth period and has continuously increased its market share.
Cement: according to Zhuo Chuang information, as of December 24, 2021, the national average price of cement was 503.5 yuan / ton, down 1.77% from last week and up 7.71% from last year. In winter, the marginal demand of cement terminal goes down, there is no strong support at the demand end, and the price continues to fall. In winter, the marginal demand of cement terminal goes down, there is no strong support at the demand end, and the price continues to fall. In terms of supply, affected by peak shifting production in heating season and environmental protection control, the operating rate will continue to decline. However, we still need to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the expected improvement of infrastructure. We first promote Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) in the cement industry and Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) in the logic improvement of beneficiary areas.
Consumer building materials: the logic that the leading market share of consumer building materials continues to increase remains unchanged. In the short term, it still faces the risk of bottom performance, but the medium - and long-term prospects are bright. We still suggest optimizing the layout of industry leaders, and pay attention to the stimulation of infrastructure advance next year on construction end building materials such as waterproof. It is recommended to consume building materials leaders Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) .
Market review: as of the closing on December 24, the building materials sector rose 2.37% and the CSI 300 index fell 0.67%. From the sector ranking, the building materials sector ranked third among the 28 sectors of Shenwan last week, with an increase of 3.10% year to date, ranking 16th among the 28 sectors of Shenwan.
The top five stocks rose: Fsilon Furnishing And Construction Materials Corporation(605318) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) .
The top five stocks fell: Xiamen Wanli Stone Stock Co.Ltd(002785) , St Yabo, Shandong Longquan Pipeline Engineering Co.Ltd(002671) , Sichuan Shuangma Cement Co.Ltd(000935) , Jinyuan Ep Co.Ltd(000546) .
Investment strategy: focus on Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) with high prosperity in traditional business and entering a new growth period, Xinyi Glass, an industrial leader with continuously improved market share, and Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) with dominant consumption attributes in building materials. It is recommended to focus on the cement and plastic pipe industry with improved profitability driven by the expected warming of infrastructure.
Risk tip: the demand of real estate chain declines, infrastructure investment slows down, and the price of raw materials fluctuates.
