Express delivery: many places printed and distributed the implementation plan for the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of the courier group. Zhongtong and Yunda announced that they would not close during the Spring Festival. They were optimistic that Tongda was the turning point of profit restoration and SF operation.
1) The implementation plan for the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of the courier group was issued in many places, and the protection of the rights and interests of the courier was steadily promoted: Recently, Anhui, Zhejiang, Fujian, Chongqing, Xinjiang and other provinces and cities issued the implementation plan or implementation opinions for the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of the courier group, and the protection of the rights and interests of the courier was steadily promoted. We pay attention to the policy, focus on issues such as dispatch fees and courier insurance, further clarify the management responsibilities of corporate headquarters and outlets, improve the legitimate rights and interests of couriers, and promote the high-quality development of the industry.
2) Zhongtong and Yunda announced that “the Spring Festival is not closed”, and Zhongtong clearly proposed that the increase of express within 1kg should not exceed 1.5 yuan / order: on December 26, Zhongtong and Yunda issued a service announcement announcing that “the Spring Festival is not closed” to meet the delivery needs during the festival, The non closing service time of this year’s Spring Festival is January 30, 2022 (from December 28 to February 4, 2022) (the fourth day of the first month), Zhongtong said that the price increase of express within 1kg should not exceed 1.5 yuan / order. We believe that there are few orders during the Spring Festival, and the delivery fee of couriers is relatively high. It is expected that the price increase will mainly be used to pay the temporary costs of outlets and couriers, which will boost the prices of the industry.
3) In November, the volume growth rate of express enterprises declined, and the unit price increased significantly: in November, the volume growth rate of listed express enterprises: SF + 13.86%, Yunda + 19.03%, Yuantong + 13.38%, Shentong + 16.65%. The growth rate of parts volume decreased compared with that in October, mainly due to the large business volume base in peak season and the recent decline in consumption growth. Unit price of each company: SF + 1.41%, Yunda + 1.71%, mom + 9.68% (up 0.21 yuan); Yuantong + 12.33%, mom + 13.10% (up 0.3 yuan); Shentong + 2.93%, mom + 16.59% (up 0.35 yuan). The increase of unit price of each company slightly exceeded expectations, reflecting the good price stability and sustainability after the double 11 peak season.
The price center of Tongda Express has moved upward and is optimistic about the improvement of industry profits; Determine the medium and long-term development direction, and be optimistic about the inflection point and leading competitiveness of the industry. SF business inflection point has been established and is optimistic about the leading value of comprehensive logistics. Policy supervision continues to emphasize service competition. The old model of price competition in the industry is getting farther and farther. Short term access is the upward movement of express price center. We expect that the profits of leading enterprises will be significantly improved in 2021q4 and 2022; On the supply side, after Jitu acquired Baishi, it once again strengthened the competition pattern of the industry head; From a medium and long-term perspective, under the background of continuous improvement of online penetration, the demand growth of the express industry is highly deterministic, and service will become a new competitive factor. After the pattern is stable, the industry leaders will fully benefit from the increase of share and profit; A-Shares mainly recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (establishment of fundamental inflection point), Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) (large room for improvement), Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) (high certainty of improvement), and U.S. stocks are optimistic about China Express.
Aviation: the Ministry of communications expects that the passenger volume of spring transportation will increase significantly this year, and the short-term local epidemic will impact the aviation demand again. It is optimistic that the supply and demand of the aviation industry will reverse after the epidemic.
1) The passenger volume of Spring Festival transportation in 2022 may increase significantly, and the aviation demand for Spring Festival is expected to improve marginally: the State Information Office held a press conference on December 24. The director of the transportation service department introduced that according to the preliminary prediction, the National Spring Festival transportation passenger volume in 2022 will increase significantly compared with that in 2021, which is expected to increase by more than twice, or even exceed 2020. In 2021, under the advocacy of the local new year policy, a large number of consumers’ demand for returning home during the Spring Festival is restrained. If the Spring Festival in 2022 adopts a local policy and measures to control local conditions, and the impact of China’s epidemic situation is controllable under the general policy of dynamic clearing, the aviation demand is expected to rebound sharply and the aviation company’s operation may usher in marginal improvement.
2) Omicron cases have occurred all over the world, and the tightening of multinational entry and exit policies has impacted aviation: as of December 23, 221 countries and regions outside China have infected cases, with 820000 new confirmed cases per day, including 202000 new confirmed cases in the United States, 105000 in the United Kingdom and 79000 in France. Omicron has surpassed other variants to become the main covid-19 pneumonia variant virus in the United States. 73% of the new cases last week were infected with Omicron virus. Under the impact of the epidemic, New Zealand, South Korea and other countries tightened their opening-up policies, some flights in the United States were cancelled, and United Airlines cancelled Christmas Eve flights accounting for about 7% of the flight plan. Recently, the overseas epidemic has been repeated again, which has an impact on overseas airlines and China’s international flights in the short term.
3) The epidemic situation in China has been repeated, all flights in Xi’an have been cancelled, and attention has been paid to the inflection point of this round of epidemic prevention and control: since December 9, Shaanxi Province has reported 342 local confirmed cases, including 330 cases in Xi’an, 7 cases in Yan’an, 5 cases in Xianyang, and related cases in Dongguan, Guangdong, Tongzhou, Beijing, Zhoukou, Henan and Shanxi Yuncheng. Xi’an city has decided to implement the upgrading management of epidemic prevention and control from 0:00 on December 23, comprehensively strengthen control measures, and the lifting time will be notified separately. According to the flight Changzhou app, as of December 25, all Chinese flights at Xi’an Xianyang Airport had been cancelled. The epidemic spread widely in this round, and there are associated cases everywhere. It is expected to impact the demand for air passenger transport in the short term, and pay attention to the inflection point of epidemic prevention and control.
On the supply side, the introduction of airlines’ transport capacity is slow, the 737max go around does not change, and the growth rate of transport capacity is low. Considering the demand for balance sheet repair under the continuous losses of the industry, the low growth of supply in the medium term has high certainty. On the demand side, although the local epidemic situation has been repeated, with the promotion of vaccination and specific drugs, the suppressed demand is expected to recover explosively; New virus variants appear overseas. Pay attention to the progress of prevention and control and vaccine. The disturbance of epidemic situation outside China once again impacted the operation of the industry, did not change the overall recovery expectation of aviation, and ushered in a good opportunity for layout under short-term fluctuations. Focus on Air China Limited(601111) with high-quality routes (which will significantly benefit from the recovery of official travel); low-cost airlines Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ; China Eastern Airlines with high proportion of lines and high performance flexibility China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) ; China Eastern Airlines with obvious regional advantages; and pay attention to regional airlines China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) .
Airport: Louis Vuitton may settle in Guangzhou Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , enriching Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) luxury retail formats: according to the information of tianyancha, Louis Vuitton brand was registered on December 15, and “Louis Vuitton (China) Commercial Sales Co., Ltd. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport store” Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) may usher in the first luxury brand. The registered address of Louis Vuitton Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) store is located on the second floor of the west corridor of terminal 2 (Airport). According to interface news reports, the store is expected to officially open next year. At present, Guangzhou Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has settled in well-known brands such as Chanel, Dior and Estee Lauder. The entry of top luxury brand Louis Vuitton is expected to further enrich Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) luxury retail business and increase the company’s performance. The short-term airport aviation business has declined due to the disturbance of the epidemic, and the epidemic in China is generally controllable. With the continuous promotion of vaccination, China’s international aviation passenger flow is expected to gradually recover. In the long run, the airport’s aviation business is stable, and the tax-free industry has huge space. Listed airports will continue to benefit from tax-free dividends in the future, focusing on the airport leaders Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Highway and Railway: the State Railway Administration issued the 14th five year plan for innovation to promote the quality and efficiency improvement of the industry: the State Railway Administration issued the 14th five year plan for Railway Science and technology innovation, which proposed to further improve the railway innovation ability and scientific and technological strength by 2025. In terms of specific measures, it is proposed to promote the mature application of 30000 ton heavy haul trains and fast freight equipment with a speed of 160 km / h and above, and promote the research, application and industrialization of 25 ~ 40 ton axle load freight equipment, 120 km / h multimodal transport and high-speed freight equipment technology. Vigorously promote the in-depth integration of Beidou satellite navigation, 5g, artificial intelligence, big data, Internet of things, cloud computing, blockchain and other cutting-edge technologies with railway technology and equipment, engineering construction, transportation services and other fields, strengthen the R & D and application of key core technologies of intelligent railway, promote the collaborative sharing of big data, promote the development of digital economy in the railway field and improve the intelligent level of railway. The promotion of scientific and technological innovation is expected to drive the high-quality development of the railway industry and further open the growth space of the industry.
Investment strategy this week: after the express peak season, the price performance will remain stable, verify that the price center of the industry will move upward, the short-term access system profit will be significantly repaired, the industry will gradually turn to service differentiated competition, and be optimistic about the inflection point and leading value of the industry. In addition, SF, the leader of comprehensive logistics, ushered in the operation inflection point; China’s aviation demand is expected to continue to recover, while the supply certainty slows down. It is optimistic that the inflection point of the aviation industry is coming, and the industry will usher in a good opportunity under the disturbance of the short-term epidemic. Combination this week: S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Air China Limited(601111) .
Risk tips:
1) The risk of macroeconomic downturn will have a great impact on the overall demand for transportation.
2) The price competition in the express industry exceeded market expectations. At present, the price war in the express industry is generally controllable, but it does not rule out a large-scale price war, eroding the profits of listed companies.
3) Risks of rising oil prices and labor costs. Transportation and labor costs, as the main costs of transportation companies, may face the risk of rising oil prices and sharply rising labor costs.
