Talk every Monday: several cities have completed three batches of land supply, and the land market has partially warmed up
Event: this week, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Changchun, Changsha, Shenyang and Tianjin completed three batches of land auction. The land market as a whole maintained the “cold” tone of low premium rate, state-owned and central enterprises as the main body of transaction, and the flow auction of some plots. However, we also saw that the land markets in Hangzhou and Wuhan maintained a certain heat. From the results of Hangzhou land auction, the marginal improvement of land auction rules has a certain impact on the performance of the land market. In the future, the land market should not only see the recovery of the commercial housing market, but also pay attention to the government’s land market supply regulation.
Several cities have completed three batches of land supply, and the land market has partially warmed up. This week, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Changchun, Changsha, Shenyang and Tianjin completed three batches of land auctions, and the overall land market remained low temperature. However, Hangzhou’s land market performed well. There were 159 land transfers in 7 cities, 123 transactions and 36 flow auctions, with a flow auction rate of 29%, of which 35 plots in Hangzhou were all traded, with an overall premium rate of 7%.
The real estate enterprises participating in the auction are still mainly state-owned enterprises, and the local auction in Wuhan and Hangzhou has attracted a number of private enterprises. Among them, the proportion of land acquisition by state-owned enterprises in Changchun, Changsha, Shenyang, Tianjin and Beijing is 100%, 82%, 75%, 72% and 75% respectively. In contrast, private enterprises in Wuhan and Hangzhou, which perform well in the land market, are more active in taking part in the auction. In the Hangzhou land auction, green city and Binjiang took land respectively, and other private housing enterprises such as Weixing and Shengao participated in the land auction.
There is particularity in the recovery of the three batches of land market in Hangzhou. The land auction rules and the adjustment of land price limit have improved the developers’ willingness to participate in the auction: ① the land auction rules have been adjusted, the threshold for participation in the auction has been reduced, and the “land hook” has been restored; ② The starting price of some plots and the upper limit of premium rate were lowered, and the price limit standard was raised in many sectors, increasing the profit margin; ③ Hot and high-quality sectors account for a high proportion, the optimization risk is controllable, and the plot profit is highly deterministic.
Hangzhou’s land market has partially recovered, but it is hard to say that the overall land market has improved. The recovery of the land market in the future still needs the help of the commercial housing market.
From the overall performance of the land market in 2021 and the recent land market transactions in various cities, the recovery of the land market is inseparable from the dual guidance of policy and market. Taking Hangzhou as an example, after the cold transfer of the second batch of land in Hangzhou, the listing policies of the third batch of land market made multi-directional profits, and finally guided the real estate enterprises to participate in the auction. In contrast, the overall change range of the land auction policies in some cities is limited, which can not fully mobilize the current real estate enterprises. In the follow-up, sustainable attention will be paid to the marginal changes in the land auction rules and land supply conditions of each city in 2022.
Data tracking (13-19 December):
New housing market: the transaction area of 30 cities is – 35PCT and + 10PCT in a single week and cumulative year-on-year respectively, first tier cities – 33pct, + 23pct, second tier cities – 32pct, + 20PCT, third tier cities – 42pct and – 10PCT.
Second hand housing market: the transaction area of second-hand housing in 14 cities was – 31pct year-on-year in a single week and – 7pct year-on-year in total.
Land market: the cumulative year-on-year construction area of land supply in 100 cities is – 17pct, the cumulative year-on-year construction area is – 19pct, the cumulative year-on-year transaction amount is – 10PCT, and the land transaction premium rate is 0.06%.
City Market: Beijing (+ 19pct), Shanghai (- 10PCT), Guangzhou (- 4pct), Shenzhen (+ 6pct), Hangzhou (- 38pct), Wuhan (+ 19pct), Nanjing (+ 69pct).
Investment strategy: it is suggested to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and Longhu group with stable operation and good credit background. Focus on high-quality real estate enterprises Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) and Greentown China under the product-oriented logic.
Risk tip: the sales market accelerated downward, individual real estate enterprises had a storm of debt default, and the policy exceeded the expected regulation.
