In November 2021, semiconductor equipment shipments in North America hit another record high. We believe that the monthly sales of North American semiconductor equipment manufacturers are of great significance for the prosperity analysis of the global semiconductor industry and the tracking of the global semiconductor equipment market. Since January 2021, the monthly sales of North American semiconductor equipment manufacturers have exceeded the $3 billion mark for the first time, reaching a record high and standing at a position of more than $3 billion. In November 2021, the shipment amount of North American semiconductor equipment manufacturers reached US $3.914 billion, another record high (the previous high was in July 2021), with a year-on-year increase of 50%.
Global semiconductor equipment core companies are growing rapidly. 2021Q3， Top five semiconductor equipment manufacturers in the world (ASML, Amat, lrcx, Tel and klac) the total revenue of semiconductor equipment reached US $21.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 36%. This round of semiconductor equipment cycle bottomed in Q2, 2019q4, and the total revenue growth of core semiconductor equipment companies exceeded double-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters. In addition, considering the impact of the epidemic from 2020h1, the upstream parts supply The delivery of machines was affected. In essence, the growth of orders exceeded the growth of revenue. There was strong demand, and the number of orders on hand increased significantly.
In 2020q4 and 2021q1, equipment revenue and profit increased rapidly, and domestic substitution continued to deepen. The operating revenue of the core company in China’s equipment industry in 2021q3 was 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63%. The equipment industry continues to grow at a high speed, the domestic substitution space is rapidly opened, and the growth of China’s core equipment companies can be expected. In 2021q3, the total R & D cost is 680 million yuan, and the R & D cost rate is about 10%. The contract liabilities of equipment manufacturers continued to grow and there were abundant orders on hand. In 2021q3, the total contract liabilities of major companies in the equipment sector reached 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79%.
At present, domestic materials have achieved a certain degree of domestic substitution, from photoresist to CMP. With the gradual investment of wafer plant expansion equipment, the material market scale is expected to enter the channel of high-speed explosion. After the performance disclosure of Listed Companies in 2020 and 2021q3, we can see that with the promotion of technology and process and the gradual improvement of China’s electronic industry chain, various manufacturers that have entered mass production and supply have begun to emerge in the field of materials.
Semiconductor equipment and semiconductor materials are expected to benefit from the overall capex expenditure and the gradual production of wafers, and the market scale is expected to accelerate growth. With the increase of capex expenditure in the global semiconductor industry and the gradual production of wafer factories, we believe that the materials and equipment as the cornerstone of the semiconductor industry will usher in a period of accelerated growth. According to semi statistics, global semiconductor equipment will benefit from capex expenditure in 2021, and the growth rate is expected to reach 23-38%, reaching the range of USD 80-90 billion; Semiconductor materials are expected to achieve an 11% growth rate and reach a new high of US $62 billion.
Attach great importance to the unprecedented reconstruction and change of China’s semiconductor and automobile industry pattern, as well as the leader of consumer electronics segment:
1) Semiconductor core design: industrial opportunities such as optical chip, storage, simulation, RF, power, FPGA, processor and IP;
2) Semiconductor OEM, packaging and testing and supporting service industry chain;
3) Core target of intelligent vehicle;
4) VR, miniled, panel, optics, battery and other sub tracks;
5) The core leading company of Apple industrial chain.
See investment suggestions on the last page for relevant core targets
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Sino US trade friction.
