Securities: this week, the average daily turnover of the market fell another 80 billion to 1.09 trillion month on month, highlighting the effect at the end of the year; The balance of the two financial institutions fell slightly to 1.84 trillion, which has remained stable since October. In the release of the fourth quarter regular meeting of the monetary policy committee of the central bank at the weekend, the following words were added: “strengthen cross cyclical regulation and combine with counter cyclical regulation”, “enhance foresight and autonomy, give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, be more proactive and promising, and increase support for the real economy” “Structural monetary policy tools should actively do a good job in” addition “,” accurate force “and” reducing the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises “, enhance the independence and foresight of China’s monetary policy under the expectation of tightening liquidity and raising interest rates in the peripheral market, release the expectation of moderate easing, cooperate with the expectation of encouraging direct financing, supporting the real economy and accelerating the comprehensive registration system, The “Pan investment bank” business is expected to become a high certainty contributor to the “growth” of securities companies in the future. In addition, following the further opening of the Shanghai Luntong market last week, 1.5% The CSRC solicits opinions on the relevant systems and rules of overseas listing and weakens the expectation of tightening; 2. Shanghai Shenzhen Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China Clearing have reached a consensus on the overall scheme of integrating ETF into the interconnection target, and the expansion of the interconnection target is imminent; 3. Zhou Xiaochuan said that one belt, one road, will be developed to facilitate the development of the international version of the Shanghai Stock Exchange to meet the financing needs of the high-quality companies in the whole country. It is expected that with the gradual expansion of China’s capital market and the interconnection of domestic and foreign markets, more business opportunities will be brought to the securities industry, and the favorable policies are expected to be realized gradually. In conclusion, we believe that the prosperity of the securities industry will continue to remain high, and the business cycle is expected to be significantly prolonged and reflect a certain growth. Among them, the head securities companies take the lead in benefiting from their investment banking and overseas layout advantages, the incremental space of the whole business chain can be expected, and the business structure will be further aligned with overseas investment banks.
Insurance: in terms of main business, the premiums of life insurance companies show great differences due to different starting strategies and starting time points, and the occurrence time of industry inflection point remains to be observed. In the medium term, the potential epidemic has repeatedly brought great uncertainty to the life insurance industry, the change of residents’ consumption concept and consumption structure may last longer, and the lengthening of the investment cycle of the insurance subject matter is a high probability event. At present, it is still difficult for insurance companies to recruit agents, and the loss rate of non core agents remains high. The sales of long-term guaranteed products encountered a bottleneck, and insurance companies generally reduced their overall expectation of a good start in 22 years. At the good start stage, long-term savings products are still the mainstream, the sales difficulty is relatively small, and the sales period may be moderately prolonged. Due to the diversified product design portfolio and the increase of margin of some main products, it is not appropriate to be overly pessimistic about the value growth of new business in the good start stage.
Sector performance: during the five trading days from December 20 to December 24, the non bank sector fell by 1.73% as a whole. According to the industry classification standard of Shenwan, the non bank ranked 22 / 31 of all industries; Among them, the securities sector fell by 1.98%, and the insurance sector fell by 1.21%, Both outperformed the CSI 300 index (- 0.67%). In terms of individual stocks, the top five gains of securities companies were China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) (2.96%), Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) (2.83%), The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) (1.24%), Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) (0.52%), Polaris Bay Group Co.Ltd(600155) (0.41%); the gains and losses of insurance companies were Hubei Biocause Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000627) (1.88%), China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (0.70%), The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) (- 0.21%), Xishui Strong Year Co.Ltd Inner Mongolia(600291) (- 0.85%), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (- 1.34%) and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) （-1.42%）、 New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) （-1.56%）。
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, policy risk, market risk and liquidity risk.
