Market review:
As of the closing on December 24, the coal sector rose 0.25% this week, the CSI 300 index fell 0.67%, and the coal sector rose 0.92% ahead of the CSI 300 index. From the sector ranking, the weekly growth rate of the coal industry ranks 12th among Shenwan 31 sectors, with an increase of 45.49% year to date, ranking 1st among Shenwan 31 sectors.
Talk every Monday:
The price of power coal weakens and coal enterprises may accelerate the transformation: the early central economic work conference proposed to focus on the clean and efficient utilization of coal and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal. It is expected that industry enterprises are expected to accelerate the transformation after the policy guidance is clear. Combined with the early adjustment opinions of the national development and Reform Commission on the coal price of the long-term association, The long-term industry profit improvement and transformation expectation are expected to promote the continuous value repair of the sector; Recently, the coal supply guarantee policy is still being implemented. At the same time, the warm temperature has reduced the daily consumption of the power plant, and the port coal inventory and power plant inventory have rebounded. As of December 24, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 5.09 million tons, Weekly yoy + 0.89% (- 0.98pct), month on month + 3.88% (+ 3.28pct); the price of thermal coal dropped significantly, and the coal price of Qinhuangdao Port (q5500) weekly drop of 140 yuan / ton to 940 yuan / ton. With the cooling of the cold wave in many parts of the country, there is room for the daily consumption of power plants to rise. It is expected that with the guidance of the national development and Reform Commission and the promotion of the reform of coal pricing mechanism, the fluctuation range of coal price will gradually move closer to the long-term agreement price, and continue to pay attention to the water flooding of Shanxi coal mine and the short-term impact of Shaanxi winter security inspection action on the supply end;
Increased procurement of dual focus, Strong price trend: China Steel Association data show that in December (to the middle of the year) the daily output of pig iron was 1.9812 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of – 17.24% and a month-on-month increase of – 3.71%. From the perspective of pig iron caliber, the coke demand fell slightly in December; the national blast furnace operating rate fell slightly this week, but the enthusiasm of steel mills for coke procurement improved, mainly due to the high profitability of steel mills in the South and the continuous increase of coke inventory in the plant; the price of coking coal continued to be affected by the security inspection actions of main producing areas The price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi of Jingtang Port rose by 100 yuan / ton to 2450 yuan / ton this week, and the profit of coke enterprises is under pressure again. At present, the profit of steel mills is still at a high level, and the subsequent suppression of coke price by steel enterprises is expected to weaken; Under the influence of factors such as staggered peak production in the heating season, limited production in the Winter Olympic Games and air pollution, the limited production of blast furnace leads to weak demand for coal coke. However, the recovery of industrial chain profits and the impact of coking coal supply end are expected to strengthen the price of coal coke as a whole;
Market impact: the profit improvement and transformation expectation of the coal industry is expected to promote the revaluation of the sector, and the short-term decline in coal prices does not change the long-term improvement trend; The demand for coal coke is subject to the continuous downturn of pig iron production, but the margin has improved. The short-term coal coke price is expected to strengthen under the background of strengthening the security inspection of the origin;
Investment strategy: focus on Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) and Yankuang energy, which benefit from the central rise of Changxie coal price, abundant cash flow and high dividend rate, and pay long-term attention to Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) benefiting from the increase of coking coal price and the deepening of national reform.
Risk tip: the policy strength exceeds the expectation, the demand is less than the expectation, and the power policy changes.
