Investment suggestions:
This week's special topic leisure food, we analyze the current investment trend from the perspective of production mode, category expansion and channel breakthrough.
How to view different business models in the field of snack food? We believe that the differences in production modes basically determine the differences in business categories. Most OEM enterprises are involved in multiple categories, with a large number of SKUs to meet diversified needs; Independent production enterprises often work in a certain field (except Yanjin), for example, Qiaqia and Ganyuan are mainly engaged in nut products, peach and plum are mainly engaged in short bread, Jue Wei and other halogen products. Multi category enterprises are more sensitive to channels, and they are often more affected when the channels they rely on change, such as the impact of Taobao decentralization on squirrels and good products, and the impact of the decline of shangsuperman traffic on Yanjin. Phase For, single category enterprises are not particularly "picky" about channels, so they have stronger adaptability and more dispersed risks.
What are the different starting points of different model enterprises? We believe that the breakthrough point of single category enterprises lies in category expansion, and the breakthrough point of multi category enterprises lies in channels. To break through the category ceiling, single category enterprises often need to grasp the downstream market trend, upgrade the category, or create a second growth curve with their original advantages. For example, after the success of melon seeds, Qiaqia began to upgrade the category of melon seeds in 2015, launched the blue bag series of melon seeds to meet the consumers' pursuit of trying new ones, launched the small yellow bag "daily nuts" in 2017 following the market trend, put in advertisements to convey its "fresh locking technology" to consumers, and accurately positioned the brand image by focusing on resources, At present, the market share of the company's daily nuts has surpassed the founder Wallon and become the leader of the industry. For multi category enterprises, if there are appropriate channels, they can often achieve rapid growth, such as squirrels and good products that grow up with initial e-commerce dividends. The revenue and profits of squirrels have more than doubled in 15 and 16 years; Yanjin began to launch dianzhongdao in 2017. After the model ran through, it was in a period of rapid growth in 18-20 years. Tiktok, who is experiencing the pain of channel change, is also seeking new ways. At present, squirrels and Kwai are actively pushing new business platform (shaking, fast, and many spelling, etc.) and offline channels (stores, business super, community group purchase), and Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) is actively cutting into the quantitative loading circuit.
How to view the current investment trend? In single category enterprises, Jue Wei is in the stage where the first category (leisure brine) has not seen an obvious ceiling, but it is also reserving the second growth curve (food ecosystem); Qiaqia's first category (melon seeds) is in the mature stage, but the second category of daily nuts has been successfully shaped and is in a period of rapid growth; while Ganyuan is in the introduction period of the second category, whether the new products can be successful in large quantities deserves special attention. Among multi category enterprises, after the decentralization of Taobao traffic, squirrels and good products are still in the stage of exploring new channels; the store island model of Yanjin is affected by the flow of business super people At present, it is expected that the output of a single island will decline, but there is still room to shop on the island. At the same time, we actively make efforts to install quantitatively and import the convenience store system in the mode of large single products.
Industry investment logic: for 22 years, we suggest thinking about investment opportunities from three dimensions - "enterprise business model, prosperity improvement speed, valuation and cost performance". 1) in the first half of 22 years, we recommend Baijiu plate with deep moat, good business model and high valuation and high price. High-end Baijiu has a strong competition pattern, and its performance is expected to accelerate faster than the other. The secondary high-end customers enjoy the bonus of consumption upgrading, and the performance is highly flexible; The equity incentive and reform results of real estate liquor will be gradually released. 2) In the second half of the year, we propose to focus on the mass goods sector with improved fundamentals and recovery of prosperity. This year, the mass products sector is under pressure from both the cost side and the demand side. It is expected to improve in 22 years, and the fundamentals are better month on month. In the beer sector, it is suggested to pay attention to the improvement of the demand side in the peak season, pay attention to when the cost inflection point appears, and grasp the "high-end + improvement of business efficiency" in the medium and long term; The dairy sector is optimistic about the long-term logic of the improvement of the net interest rate of the two strong companies; The external environment of snack food is expected to improve marginally in 22 years, and the performance is also elastic; It is suggested to weaken the short-term performance requirements and pay attention to the improvement of leading enterprises.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk / continuous and repeated epidemic risk / regional market competition risk.
