The growth rate of domestic and foreign markets is obvious, and the global installed capacity is expected to increase year-on-year
In November, 264 million components were exported, with a month on month increase of 2.19% and a year-on-year increase of 24.7%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of components was 2.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.54%. In November, the export value of components was 16.8 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 11.9% and a year-on-year increase of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative export of components was 164.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.8%. In November, the number of inverter exports was 4.6 million, an increase of 11.2% month on month and 51.3% year-on-year. From January to November, the cumulative export volume was 38.9 million, with a year-on-year increase of 45.0%. In November, the export value of inverter was 3.33 billion yuan, an increase of 7.30% month on month and 10.8% year-on-year. From January to November, the cumulative export amount of inverter was 29.3 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 37.1%. The export growth in November was slightly slower than that from January to October, mainly because the silicon material price was still high in November, the downstream construction was insufficient, and the overseas market was also in a wait-and-see state; Overall, the overseas installed capacity is increasing year-on-year. According to the export growth of components and inverters this year, the overseas installed capacity is expected to be 100-105gw in 2021, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30%. In China, 5.52gw of new installed capacity was added in November, with a year-on-year increase of 37.31% and a month on month increase of 47.20%; From January to November, the cumulative installed capacity was 34.83gw, a year-on-year increase of 34.48%. The main reasons for the rebound of installed capacity growth are 1) rush to install at the end of the year. 2) The price reduction at the silicon wafer end of the upstream silicon material stimulates the resumption of work at the downstream. According to the growth rate of China’s installed capacity this year, China’s installed capacity is expected to be about 50gw in 2021, basically the same as last year; The corresponding global installed capacity is about 150-155gw, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 20%.
The industrial chain continues to reduce prices, and the installed capacity may break out in the first quarter of next year
This week, the price reduction trend continued in all links of the industrial chain, in which the silicon material decreased by 11 yuan / kg to 236 yuan / kg, a decrease of 4.5%; 210mm single crystal cells decreased by 0.03 yuan / w to 1.050 yuan / W, or 2.8%; The prices of components of all specifications decreased by 1.0%. We believe that the price reduction across the industrial chain will increase the expected rate of return of the power station and stimulate the recovery of downstream operating rate. In the short term, silicon materials are expected to continue to reduce prices to stimulate installation. Some delayed projects this year will be installed in the first quarter of next year, and the demand is expected to explode in the first quarter of next year. In the long run, as the upstream supply of the industrial chain is gradually liberalized, the tight supply situation will be alleviated, and the installed capacity of the industry will enter a stable growth state.
Investment advice
The increase of global installed capacity growth stimulates the demand for inverters. It is recommended to pay attention to Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , etc; It is expected that the follow-up whole industry chain will continue to reduce prices, which is conducive to the outbreak of downstream demand. In the first quarter of next year, the demand is expected to be not weak in the off-season, and the profitability of component links will pick up. It is recommended to pay attention to Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , etc.
Risk statement
The installed capacity of the industry was less than expected, the epidemic intensified, and the global economy was seriously affected
