Banking stocks: the industry index fell
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking index rose by – 0.81%, 1.18% and – 3.73% this week, this month and year to date respectively, ranking 18th, 14th and 20th among the 28 Shenwan industries.
In terms of weeks, the stock prices of Jiangsu Zijin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601860) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) and China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) increased by 5.31%, 3.28% and 1.77% respectively. On a monthly basis, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Jiangsu Zijin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601860) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) share prices rose by 6.69%, 6.65% and 5.89% respectively. Since the beginning of the year, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) have increased by more than 10%.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: net money supply responded to the sharp decline of dr007 at the end of the month
The total amount of money put in this week was 100 billion yuan, the total amount returned was 50 billion yuan, and the net money put in was 50 billion yuan, an increase of 50 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of the month, the currency has realized a net return of 300 billion yuan.
On December 24, dr007 was 1.60%, a decrease of 45bps compared with last Friday. Dr001 was 1.70%, an increase of 10bps compared with last Friday.
The overnight lending rate was 1.89%, down 1bp from last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.28%, down 2bps from last Friday.
Interbank deposit certificate issuing interest rate: 6m interbank deposit certificate issuing interest rate decreased
This week, the issuing interest rate of 1m and 3M interbank certificates of deposit increased, and the issuing interest rate of 6m interbank certificates of deposit decreased. On December 24, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit were 2.81%, 2.84% and 2.94% respectively, with changes of + 12bps, + 5bps and – 1bp compared with last Friday.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread of China’s bonds narrowed and the term interest spread of US bonds widened
This week, the yield of 1y treasury bonds increased, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds decreased, and the term spread narrowed. On December 24, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds were 2.34% and 2.82% respectively, with changes of + 2bps and – 3bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.48%, down 5bps from last Friday.
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds increased, and the term interest spread expanded. On December 24, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 0.31% and 1.50% respectively, with changes of + 4bps and + 9bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 1.19%, up 5bps from last Friday.
U.S. liquidity index: the debt interest margin of non-financial enterprises decreased, and the tips yield was the same as last week
(1) On December 22, the U.S. secured overnight financing interest rate was 0.05%, the same as last Friday; (2) on December 8, the latest data of 3maa U.S. non-financial bill interest rate was 0.14%; (3) on December 23, the adjusted spread of U.S. corporate bond options was 3.12%, down 24bps compared with last Friday; (4) on December 23, U.S. inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) yield was – 0.97%, unchanged from last Friday.
Investment advice
The fluctuation of bank stocks has come off track. At the same time, the regular meeting of the central bank in the fourth quarter released a positive signal – give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of aggregate and structure, be more proactive and promising, increase support for the real economy, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and enhance the stability of the growth of total credit. Under the interaction of macroeconomic downturn and policy underpinning, banks that meet the three conditions of being proficient in retail credit, wealth management and good non-performing control will still have a steady performance. Recommendations: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) and Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) .
Risk statement
The macro economy went down more than expected.
