This week and year to date, the biomedical index rose by 0.53% and – 8.62% respectively, and the excess returns relative to the Shanghai index were 1.2% and – 14.18% respectively; This week, the share prices of traditional Chinese medicine and raw materials increased greatly, while the share prices of medical services, biological products and commerce were relatively weak. Rise and fall performance characteristics: this week, large market value companies with heavy institutional positions fell sharply, and the share prices of small market value companies were stronger, which was more obvious than last week; The stock price of traditional Chinese medicine rose greatly, accounting for eight of the top ten this week; The performance of medical services and CXO is weak. The stock price of traditional Chinese medicine has risen sharply in recent weeks. The logic of the four industries is as follows: first, the state has given great support to the traditional Chinese medicine industry. In 2021, the number of CDE traditional Chinese medicine acceptance numbers increased from more than 400 in 2020 to more than 1200 in 2021; Second, the price of OTC traditional Chinese medicine increases due to the rise of upstream costs, Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co.Ltd(600771) may increase in varying degrees; Third, the varieties of traditional Chinese medicine entering the base medicine shall ensure the high volume; Fourth, traditional Chinese medicine has congenital advantages in the treatment of non diseases, and the treatment of non diseases has risen to the national strategy. Therefore, it is suggested to pay attention to the combination of small market value targets Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co.Ltd(600771) ; Large market value target combination Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , etc.
The volume of traditional Chinese medicine is expected to increase, and the market of Chinese patent medicine is expected to grow rapidly; Traditional Chinese medicine has a long history in China. It is not only the treasure of the Chinese nation, but also an important part of traditional medicine in the world. According to the Euromonitor report, China’s Chinese patent medicine market grew rapidly from 2015 to 2019, and the market scale increased from about 625.2 billion yuan in 2015 to about 814.9 billion yuan in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate of about 6.8%. In recent years, the state has intensively launched various policies to support and encourage the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine: the number of Chinese patent medicines in the basic medicine catalogue accounts for 39.12%, and the continuous promotion of the “986” goal is expected to stimulate the large-scale production of traditional Chinese medicine; Since 2021, the approval of innovative Chinese traditional medicine has accelerated. As of December 24, 2021, 11 innovative Chinese patent medicines have been approved. The price of raw materials in the upstream OTC market increases, and enterprises have the willingness and ability to raise prices, which is expected to usher in a simultaneous rise in volume and price.
Pfizer announced that FDA approved its urgent authorization application for the new covid-19 oral antiviral drug paxlovid; On December 22, Pfizer announced that FDA had approved its emergency authorization application for paxlovid, a new oral antiviral candidate of covid-19, to treat covid-19 infection in non hospitalized adults at high risk of developing into severe diseases; On December 23, MSD / Ridgeback announced that molnupiravir, an oral covid-19 drug, was authorized by FDA for emergency use to treat adult patients with mild to moderate covid-19; On December 22, the official website of nmpa showed that Shandong new era Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. was approved to be listed as the third domestic manufacturer by imitating ivabradine hydrochloride tablets reported in Category 4.
Specific allocation ideas: 1) in the field of traditional Chinese medicine: it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) , and recommend Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) ; 2) Innovative drugs and industrial chain: recommend Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) ; 3) Biotech innovative drugs: it is recommended to pay attention to kangfang biology and recommend Xinda biology and Yasheng medicine; 4) API field: it is recommended to pay attention to Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300636) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) and Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) and so on; 5) Vaccine field: recommended Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) ; 6) Growth hormone field: recommended Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) ; 7) Medical service field: recommend Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002390) , etc., and pay attention to Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) , haijiya, etc; 8) Blood products: it is recommended to pay attention to Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294) , recommend Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) , etc; 9) Medical and aesthetic fields: recommend Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , etc; 10) Medical devices: recommended Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , etc.
Risk warning: R & D progress may be less than expected; The price reduction of drugs exceeded expectations; The medical insurance policy was further tightened.
