Precious metals: rising inflation pushes up the price of gold, and the US economic expansion creates long-term pressure on gold. Gold: ① nominal interest rate: during the week, the interest rate of ten-year US bonds rose from 1.41% to 1.50%. Us durable goods orders in November rose 2.5% month on month (MOM) from the initial value, much higher than the expected 1.6%, indicating that US demand is stable and economic activities continue to expand; The labor market continued to recover, with 205000 people applying for unemployment benefits this week, in line with expectations. The positive US economy has boosted the rebound of the US dollar index and the expectation of US interest rate hike, which constitute medium – and long-term pressure on gold prices. ② Inflation expectation: the contradiction of energy shortage in Europe is prominent, and energy prices are further rising. The implied inflation in the US bond market rose to 2.47% from 2.38%, and the real interest rate remained stable at – 0.97% during the week. The core PCE price index of the United States rose 4.7% year-on-year in November, 4.1% higher than the previous value and 4.5% higher than expected, the highest level in recent 40 years. The core was affected by the rise in global raw material and energy costs. The inhibitory effect of the acceleration of US debt reduction on inflation remains to be verified. In the short term, US inflation remains high or will continue, which is expected to support the continued rise of gold prices.
Base metals: the consumption has gone to the warehouse, exceeding expectations, and the metal price boom continues. (1) Copper: ① in terms of price, the one-year LPR of the people’s Bank of China was lowered to 3.8% in December. The deputy director of China’s development and Reform Commission said that he would implement the upcoming strategic outline of expanding domestic demand and boost the prospect of China’s metal demand. The guidelines for US interest rate hike are becoming clearer, and the market’s trading fundamentals have been removed from the warehouse. ② in terms of supply, the long-term TC processing fee was negotiated, which is higher than the current spot transaction price, making it difficult to sell in the near future The number of offers increased, the inventory of Chinese smelters was sufficient, and the spot TC rose significantly for the first time in two months. In the long run, the newly appointed president of Chile borizi raised the issues of environmental protection and increasing relevant mining taxes, which suppressed the medium and long-term mine output. ③ In terms of demand, the end of the year holiday reduced the activity of foreign trade spot trading, and the premium of Yangshan copper quickly fell from US $102 / T to US $88 / T. Under the rush effect at the end of the year, the overall performance of China’s inventory continued to decline, with SHFE inventory as low as less than 30000 tons. China’s interest rate cut released a signal of loose liquidity, boosted the expectation of metal demand, and basically supported copper prices; (2) Aluminum: ① in terms of inventory: LME inventory decreased by 15400 tons to 964200 tons in a single week, which is the main factor for the decline of inventory in global exchanges this week. China’s social inventory decreased by 45000 tons to 877700 tons, only an increase of 190000 tons over the same period last year; ② in terms of cost: alumina decreased by 1.25% from 2889 yuan / ton to 2853 yuan / ton during the week, corresponding to the taxable production cost of self owned power plants of about 16200 yuan / ton, and the Yangtze River Spot aluminum prices rose 680 yuan / ton to 20080 yuan / ton, Single ton electrolytic aluminum (self owned power plant) profit level: during the week, the profit rose sharply by 857.93 yuan / ton to 3400 yuan / ton; ③ demand: in November, China imported 229400 tons of aluminum ingots, with an increase of 89500 tons, with an increase of 173300 tons; from January to November, China imported 1.5 million tons, with an increase of about 560000 tons; in terms of export, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in November was 509300 tons, with an increase of 29700 tons, with an increase of 66000 tons, a record since 2020 The total export volume has reached a new high since March. Although the current import loss is still at the level of 900 yuan / ton, the time difference between the reduction of upstream electrolytic aluminum production and the recovery of downstream operation has led to a significant increase in aluminum ingot import. At the same time, the obvious increase of overseas demand has become one of the main supporting factors of current aluminum demand. At the current time point, the market is worried that the cancellation of aluminum export tax rebate will be implemented on the ground. On the other hand, near the end of the year, the downstream is worried about the impact of the East Olympic Games on construction and the “export rush” of aluminum processing enterprises to improve the aluminum consumption boom. We expect that aluminum exports will still show an increasing trend in December, and the corresponding aluminum price strength is expected to last until the first ten days of the first quarter. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China nonferrous metals mining, Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Jchx Mining Management Co.Ltd(603979) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Energy metal: the price of lithium carbonate exceeds 250000 yuan; Poor buying, nickel sulfate prices fell. (1) Lithium: since December, seven listed companies have successively announced plans to accelerate the construction and expansion of lithium iron phosphate related projects, and the resource-based enterprises will gradually extend downstream. Under the general trend, the lithium salt spot market will be more tight. During the week, the battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 21000 yuan / ton to 238900 yuan / ton. With the recovery of lithium carbonate price, the profit space of battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 16600 yuan / ton to 7.15 yuan The profit margin of battery grade lithium hydroxide decreased slightly to 40700 yuan / ton during the week. (2) Nickel: the buying of nickel sulfate is poor, and the spot price of nickel is split; the decline in stainless steel demand continues to weaken the price of ferronickel, increasing the demand for long-term conversion of high nickel iron to nickel sulfate, and the supply of nickel sulfate raw materials will be further alleviated. (3) Cobalt: the South African authorities announced the closure of all ports due to the rampant epidemic, and the front line of DRC Durban port in South Africa China carries 70% of China’s Cobalt raw material supply. The rebound of Omicron epidemic has once again brought uncertainty to the global supply chain and stimulated the continued rise of cobalt prices. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) 、 Xtc New Energy Materials( Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) 、 Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) 、 Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) 。
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
