Key investment points:
It is estimated that in 2022, coal-fired thermal power generation will increase by 1.2%, power coal consumption will increase by 1.5%, and power coal will increase by 100 million tons. In 2022, the supply and demand of thermal coal is in a weak balance, and the market price of thermal coal is expected to be slightly corrected in the whole year. However, considering the increase of the benchmark price of the long-term association (700 yuan / ton) and the weak balance between supply and demand, the market price is higher than the benchmark price, the price center of the long-term association is expected to be 750 yuan / ton in 2022. From the perspective of the industry sales gross profit margin and the price trend of the long-term association, the two are consistent. With the price stabilization of the long-term association, the overall high profitability of coal enterprises has stabilized.
It is estimated that the demand for coking coal in China will decrease by 3% and the output of coking coal will increase by about 4 million tons in 2022. The overall supply and demand of overseas coking coal is in tight balance. Considering that the import of coking coal is an important factor in adjusting the supply and that coking coal has little impact on people's livelihood, we tend to think that on the supply side, the increase of Mongolia's import will reduce the total import from other regions to a certain extent, and the increase of overseas import is generally cautious. According to the overall calculation, the tight situation of coking coal supply and demand will be alleviated and the supply and demand will be balanced in 2022. Based on 2022, the supply and demand of coking coal is in balance as a whole. It is estimated that the central price of Mysteel China coking coal price index is 1500 yuan / ton, and the central price of Xinhua Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) long term association price index is 1200 yuan / ton. On the whole, the gross profit margin of coal business of coking coal enterprises is completely related to the long-term association price. Therefore, the annual profit in 2022 is basically the same as that in 2021.
Risk tips: 1 The macro-economy declined, the downstream steel, building materials, chemical and other industries increased production restrictions, and the demand growth rate was significantly lower than expected.
