Market Overview: CITIC’s primary media sector rose 0.1% this week, and the focus on the core target of virtual human in yuanuniverse sector continued to rise. In the medium term, after experiencing the impact of intensive policies in 2021, the valuation of the media sector is at the bottom of history, but according to our calculation, The impact of the policy on the income of some industries (such as games and long video Membership Business) is limited. After the subsequent normalization, the fundamentals are strong, and the company is expected to restore stable performance growth. Individual stocks with good fundamentals for a long time have reached a better price position from the perspective of medium-term allocation. It is recommended that investors gradually pay more attention.
[game] in 2021, the global game duration scale was 180.3 billion US dollars. Shengqu game under Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co.Ltd(002602) legally enjoys the “legend” IP copyright. Newzoo released the global game market report in 2021. The Organization predicted that the global game market would reach US $180.3 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. Specific to the cloud game market, compared with last year, the revenue will more than double this year. With the policy bottoming, the current game plate β It has bottomed out and subsequently entered the competition of individual stocks α At this stage, the continuous landing of the meta universe industry is also expected to improve the valuation of the game sector. Focus on the arrival of the performance inflection point. The company: [ Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) ] Q3’s profit increased by 54.8% year-on-year. Douluo mainland: duel between soul masters continued to be outstanding at home and abroad; [ Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) ] on the first day of the launch of magic tower, the running water was 50 million yuan, and the Q3 game business improved significantly month on month.
[yuancosmos] Baidu yuancosmos “xirang” officially opened the internal test, and Jingdong launched the Lingxi digital collection trading platform. On December 27, China’s first meta universe product “xirang” will be open to all users, and Baidu AI developer conference will also be held. Xirang took the lead in realizing the interaction of 100000 people on the same screen and the restoration of “10000 concert level” real sound effect in China. On the policy side, at the economic work meeting of the Shanghai municipal Party committee held on December 21, Li Qiang, Secretary of the Shanghai municipal Party committee, stressed the need to guide enterprises to step up the research on the important platform for the interaction between the virtual world and the real society in the future, and make a timely layout and cut in. We believe that giants at home and abroad focus on the multi-dimensional ecological layout of software, hardware and content around the meta universe, and the continuous landing of industries has brought about a plate catalytic market. Short term or partial theme investment. In the long term, there are a lot of investment opportunities in VraR, blockchain, virtual reality content production and other links. It is recommended to focus on high-quality companies with fundamental support and valuation flexibility: [ Shanghai Fengyuzhu Culture Technology Co.Ltd(603466) ], [ Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) ] (main business recovery + NFT platform will be launched soon), [ Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) ] (Industrial Internet), [ Hylink Digital Solution Co.Ltd(603825) ], [ Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) ] (virtual live broadcasting room), etc.
[live e-commerce] Weiya has accumulated a fine of 1.341 billion yuan for tax evasion. The competition pattern of the anchor industry is expected to change and tend to be decentralized in the future. On Monday, the Zhejiang provincial taxation bureau announced that it had made a decision on tax administrative punishment against Wei Ya, which recovered the tax and imposed late fees and fined a total of 1 billion 341 million yuan. Besides, Taobao’s micro-blog, tiktok and other accounts were sealed. According to questmobile, the sales of Weiya and Li Jiaqi in 2020 were 38.688 billion yuan and 25.243 billion yuan respectively, and the sales of top 3 anchors accounted for 5.90%. The competition pattern of the anchor industry is expected to change, small and medium-sized anchors and store anchors are expected to rise, and the importance of content operation capability will be further highlighted. In addition, we believe that the Weiya punishment event promotes the standardized development of the industry. In the future, the head anchor and MCN institutions need to strengthen the compliance management, and the MCN institutions with formal operation are expected to be recognized. For the short video industry, the traffic dividend has come to an end. Advertising is gradually adapting to new regulation. China’s live electronic business sector still has high Kwai rating, or has become a new growth momentum for user growth and commercialization. It is recommended to focus on short video platform [fast technology], MCN[ Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) ] live broadcast of the head, and cash flow out of the station [ Jiangsu Zitian Media Technology Co.Ltd(300280) ].
[long video] mango TV raises member prices. The monthly price of mango TV will be increased by 1 yuan, the quarterly price will be increased by 5 yuan, and the annual price will be increased by 10 yuan. Learning from Naifei’s experience, the increase in the price of the platform does not necessarily lead to the reduction of the number of members. The core of the retention and increase of members is the continuous output of high-quality content. The arppu of mango TVB members in 2020 is 90 yuan / person / year. The arppu value is expected to increase significantly in 2022, driving the cash flow and income into the rising channel. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) ].
Investment suggestions: the game section focuses on Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) ; Video Kwai continues to recommend Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) and fast technology. Key recommendations of live e-commerce Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) ; Bubble mat and Guangzhou Wahlap Technology Corporation Limited(301011) are recommended in the field of fashion play. The yuan universe plate focuses on Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) , Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) , Hylink Digital Solution Co.Ltd(603825) , Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) .
Risk tips: policy supervision risk, increased competition risk, and the impact of epidemic situation exceeds the expected risk.
