This week, the prosperity index of Guohai chemical industry was 158.43, up 0.98 month on month. Comprehensively consider the operation and prosperity of chemical enterprises, and give the industry a "recommended" rating.
Investment suggestion: invest in the subject matter with expansion capacity, the subject matter of downstream industries and the subject matter of new energy materials.
The central economic work conference requires that next year's economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability, that all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, that all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and that the policy force should be appropriately advanced. A stable economic environment is more favorable to leading enterprises.
Looking forward to 2022, we believe that chemical industry leaders, downstream industries and new material industries are the key directions. This year, the problem of suppressing the capacity expansion of leading enterprises is expected to be gradually alleviated, the loss of profits in downstream industries due to high raw material costs will be alleviated, and the new material industry will be driven by new energy and emerging industries to usher in a good opportunity for development.
The tire industry has entered the strategic layout period. We judge that 2021q3 is the lowest point of the industry. In 2021q4 and 2022q1, the profits of the tire industry begin to improve. Based on three judgments, first, the supply shrinks and small and medium-sized tire enterprises begin to shut down. According to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, on December 23, the operating rate of Shandong half steel tire enterprises was 63.7%, and the operating rate under normal conditions was about 70%, The operating rate of Shandong all steel tire enterprises is 63.8%, and the operating rate under normal circumstances is more than 70%. Dual control and negative cash flow are two reasons, especially the net operating cash flow of some listed companies in the second quarter has turned negative; Second, the price of sea freight has been loosened. This week, the FBX index from China to western US ports was US $14862 / feu, down 0.42% month on week; The FBX index from China to Meidong port was USD 16828 / feu, down 2.13% from last week; Third, in November, the monthly output of commercial vehicles in China was 350000, an increase of 3% month on month, the output of automobiles was 2.59 million, an increase of 11% month on month, and the output of trucks was 309000, an increase of 1% month on month. The bottom of the tire reversed. Under the background of shrinking supply and improving demand, according to Tencent News, incomplete statistics, as of November 3, 84 tire enterprises in China had announced price increases, and some enterprises even announced price increases until next year. On the whole, this round of price increases ranged from 2% to 5%, with a maximum increase of 10%. We believe that the profit margin level of tires will gradually recover. In the long run, Chinese tire enterprises have outstanding cost performance advantages in the middle and low-end market, import substitution in the high-end market through channel forces, and the two major trends of internationalization and branding are irreversible. They focus on Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) . These three enterprises have a significant expansion of overseas production capacity in 2022, as well as rubber additive enterprises Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) and conveyor belt enterprises Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co.Ltd(002381) .
Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has entered a period of rapid expansion. We believe that the core means to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in the chemical industry is to use technological innovation to bring changes in energy structure, energy consumption level, raw material structure and product structure. Technological innovation is the key. Innovation can continue to grow. The R & D cost of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) in the third quarter reached 930 million yuan, Construction in progress was 28.1 billion yuan, accounting for 46% of fixed assets, of which the cash inflow of fixed assets purchased and constructed in the third quarter reached 7.6 billion yuan, reaching a record high. According to the EIA, Wanhua Fujian Industrial Park plans to expand MDI project to 1.6 million T / a (Wanhua isocyanate company) and TDI project to 360000 T / a (Wanhua Fujian), and Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) enters the rapid expansion period. We expect that 2021q4 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 10000 tons of ternary battery materials and 60000 tons of biodegradable polyester materials are expected to be put into operation, bringing new catalysts. Under the background of double carbon, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) As an excellent thermal insulation material, MDI is expected to usher in the demand explosion period, and the company focuses on Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) because of its R & D and innovation ability, capacity expansion and worry free growth.
The prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry is sustainable, and the transformation of new energy is in progress. The price of phosphate rock continued to rise, from 350 yuan / ton at the end of 2020 to 627.5 yuan / ton at present, an increase of 79%; Ammonium monohydrate for wet process industry in Southwest China was adjusted from 5300 yuan / ton on September 23 to 5600 yuan / ton on December 24, reversing upward again; The price of yellow phosphorus was adjusted back to 40800 yuan / ton, up more than 73% from 23500 yuan / ton in August; Enterprises with industrial chain integration benefit. In addition, the export volume of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer decreased significantly in August, and the export was limited. As a compound fertilizer industry with squeezed terminal profits, the profits gradually improved. In the first half of 2022, both Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) and Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) iron phosphate will be implemented, and the phosphorus chemical industry chain is still in the transition period from traditional chemical fertilizer industry to new energy materials. We focus on phosphorus chemical enterprises with industrial chain integration and fast transformation speed, including Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Shenzhen Batian Ecotypic Engineering Co.Ltd(002170) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) and other enterprises. Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) merger draft has been released.
Satellite chemical phase I ethylene project is gradually put into operation. According to Xinhua news agency, China and the United States have agreed to increase the export of agricultural products and energy from the United States. Satellite chemical will be encouraged to import ethane from the United States. The continuous implementation of satellite chemical light hydrocarbon integration project deserves special attention.
The leading development of coal chemical industry has ushered in a turnaround. With the relaxation of raw material energy consumption policy, the coal chemical projects blocked in the early stage are expected to be implemented, and the growth of enterprises such as Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) is prominent.
Private refining ushered in a good opportunity for development. The large-scale refining and chemical projects gradually extend downstream, and a series of new chemical material projects are expected to be implemented, focusing on Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) and other enterprises.
At the same time, pay attention to Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) with the sharp rise in the price of Kungfu pyrethrin, Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) with the continuous rise in the price of sugar substitutes, Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) and Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) that can still maintain the performance growth under the pressure of the rise in the price of raw materials, and Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) expanding to new energy materials.
Chemical industry leaders are the kings of the future. According to our observation, there are a number of leading companies in China's chemical industry. Compared with international competitors, they show obvious efficiency advantages in terms of rate of return, labor efficiency and turnover. The slowdown of China's GDP growth and the control of carbon emissions in the future have led to the concentration of resources in all aspects to the leading chemical enterprises, superimposed with intelligent manufacturing, R & D and innovation, and the increase of the leading market share is accelerating. At present, we believe that China's leading companies have the ability to plan a global blueprint and move towards global leaders. We suggest that we should work with excellent enterprises and invest in those enterprises with efficient execution. This efficient ability will make the profitability of Chinese enterprises higher than that of international competitors, with higher rate of return and larger scale in the future. Therefore, the market value of foreign giants is far from the ceiling of Chinese enterprises. For example, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , which is building an integrated industrial chain, continuously increasing R & D investment, multi category expansion and moving forward to a first-class chemical new material company with global operation, has made a synchronous breakthrough in original replacement, China and foreign countries go hand in hand, and is aiming at the top five Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) in the global tire industry in 2030, with high starting point, high standard Build Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) and Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) of world-class refineries with high efficiency.
We focus on the leaders in various sub sectors that are still underestimated, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , the leader in the tire industry Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , and Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) and Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) Private refining giants ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ), Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) and Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) in the field of compound fertilizer, rubber additives Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) , viscose staple fiber Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , vitamin Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , coal chemical industry Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , new coal chemical industry Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , pesticide Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , and glyphosate Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) The leader in the field of inorganic new materials Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , the leader in satellite chemistry, sweetener Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) , plant growth regulator Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002749) , titanium dioxide Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , spandex and adipic acid Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) , organic fine chemicals Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , dicamba enterprise Jiangsu Changqing Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002391) , etc.
The U.S. Department of Commerce issued a statement on May 15, 2020 local time, saying that the strategic position of semiconductor materials has become increasingly prominent by comprehensively restricting Huawei's purchase of semiconductors produced with U.S. software and technology. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Jingrui shares, Changzhou Tronly New Electronic Materials Co.Ltd(300429) , Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) , Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) , Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) and other enterprises. In addition, we hope that the new materials will continue to expand continuously, and have strong technical content of polymer anti-aging leader Rianlon Corporation(300596) , thermoplastic elastomer head Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.Ltd(002838) , brine extraction lithium technology leader Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi'An(300487) .
Key target information tracking
[ Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the price of pure MDI was 20500 yuan / ton on December 24, compared with + 750 yuan / ton on December 17; The price of polymerized MDI was 19375 yuan / ton, up from + 75 yuan / ton on December 17. According to Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) WeChat official account, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Haier group. The signing of this agreement has pushed the cooperation relationship between Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) and Haier to a new height in the fields of global business layout, joint innovation, industrial interconnection, low-carbon environment protection and so on, marking the new stage of bilateral strategic, comprehensive and long-term cooperative development. Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) the joint laboratory with Hisense was inaugurated. By building a platform, building a system, strengthening integration and optimizing management, the joint laboratory can support Hisense's research and development of cutting-edge technologies, core technologies and key technologies in the process of innovation and development, accelerate the cultivation and transformation of research results, lead the green upgrading of the household appliance industry and promote the realization of the low-carbon goal of the whole industrial chain.
[ Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) ] according to Bloomberg, the FBX index from China to west American ports this week was US $14862 / feu, down 0.42% month on week; The FBX index from China to Meidong port was USD 16828 / feu, down 2.13% from last week; The FBX index from China to Europe was US $14496 / feu, down 0.014% from last week. Recently, the General Administration of Customs released the rubber tire export data in November 2021. In November, China's rubber tire export volume was 670000 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 7.2% and a month on month increase of + 6.3%; The export volume of rubber tires was 10.625 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.5% and a month on month increase of + 8.4%.
[ Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) ] on December 20, 2021, Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) signed the strategic cooperation framework agreement of xueheyou Qingyuan Xinlin industrial fund with Suzhou New District Hi-Tech Industrial Co.Ltd(600736) venture capital group Qingyuan Xinlin Venture Capital Management Co., Ltd., Qingdao xueheyou Investment Co., Ltd., Qingdao New Material Technology Industrial Park Development Co., Ltd., Qingdao Qingdao Hi-Tech Moulds & Plastics Technology Co.Ltd(301022) Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) Co., Ltd. and Wu Guoliang, Many parties intend to jointly initiate the establishment of xueheyou Qingyuan Xinlin phase I venture capital (limited partnership).
[ Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) ] on December 20, the company announced that it planned to raise 52.59 million euros to invest in the project of 12 million high-performance cars and light truck radial tires in Spain. This foreign investment is an important step for the company to practice the "833plus" strategic plan and deeply implement the globalization development strategy, which will further improve the overall competitiveness and profitability of the company and meet the long-term, stable and sustainable development needs of the company and all shareholders.
[ Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the inventory of polyester filament was 19.8 days on December 23, with a month on month comparison of - 0.5 days; PTA1's inventory on February 24 was 3.194 million tons, a month on month increase of - 61000 tons. On December 24, the price of polyester filament FDY was 7250 yuan / ton, compared with December 17 - 200 yuan / ton; On December 24, PTA price was 4795 yuan / ton, compared with December 17 - 175 yuan / ton.
According to forenoon and high-end WeChat official account, [ Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ] municipal government and Rongsheng Holding Co., Ltd. signed a new project in Jintang new material park on the morning of December 21st, according to [ Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ]. The project is located in the north of Jintang Island, with a total investment of about 50 billion yuan and the utilization of foreign capital of no less than 800 million US dollars. It will build a number of projects with high technology content, high growth, high added value and high tax in the middle and lower reaches of petrochemical industry.
[ Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ] on December 22, the company issued an announcement on the approval and resumption of trading of major asset restructuring by the CSRC, Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) issuing shares and paying cash to buy 100% equity of sierbang and raising supporting funds and related party transactions were "unconditionally approved" by the M & a committee of the CSRC.
[ Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ] no update information yet.
[ Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ] on December 24, the company announced that the petrochemical polyester integration project invested and constructed by the wholly-owned subsidiary Jiangsu Jiatong Energy Co., Ltd. has passed the preliminary installation, commissioning and trial operation, and the first polyester unit has entered the start-up and trial production stage on December 22, 2021.
[ Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ] according to the WeChat group's official account of Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) group, recently, the Zhejiang Provincial Department of economic and information technology announced the list of provincial green low carbon factories, which is famous for Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) .
[ Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the price of monoammonium phosphate this week was 2933.33 yuan / ton, down 33.34 yuan / ton month on month; The price of compound fertilizer was 3272.50 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month.
[ Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) ] [ Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) ] has no update information.
[ Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ] on December 22, the company issued a progress announcement on the capital increase of its subsidiaries. The company held the 30th meeting of the seventh board of directors on December 8, 2021 and agreed to increase the capital of Shandong Longbai Titanium Technology Co., Ltd. by 130 million yuan. Recently, Shandong Longbai titanium industry completed the industrial and commercial change registration procedures for the capital increase, And obtained the business license renewed by Rizhao market supervision and Administration Bureau.
[ Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of accelerator M was 15500 yuan / ton on December 24, unchanged month on month on December 17; The average price of accelerator NS was 26500 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month on December 17; The average price of accelerator TMTD was 19500 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month on December 17.
[ Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co.Ltd(002381) ] [ Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ] has no update information.
[ Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) ] according to wind, on December 24, the 40d of spandex was 62500 yuan / ton, down 2500 yuan / ton month on month.
[ Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) ] according to wind, the price of vitamin A was 272.5 yuan / kg on December 24, 2021, compared with - 2.5 yuan / kg on December 17; The price of vitamin E was 87.5 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month on December 17. On December 21, the company said on the investor interaction platform that at present, the company's VB6 project is in the trial production stage, and the formal production depends on the trial production.
[ Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) ] according to wind, the market price of viscose staple fiber 1.5D in China on December 24 was 12000 yuan / ton, compared with - 350 yuan / ton on December 17. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the Chinese market price of light soda ash in East China on December 24 was 2425 yuan / ton, compared with - 125 yuan / ton on December 17.
[ Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ] according to wind, the market price of ethylene glycol in China on December 24 was 4850 yuan / ton, compared with - 115 yuan / ton on December 17. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the listing price of Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) urea small particles on December 24 was 2460 yuan / ton, compared with - 50 yuan / ton on December 17.
