Key investment points:
Auto parts led the rebound of the auto sector this week. After two consecutive weeks of adjustment, the auto sector rebounded this week. CITIC auto index rose 2.86%, outperforming the market by 3.53 percentage points, ranking third among 30 industries. Among them, passenger cars fell 0.65%, commercial vehicles rose 0.69%, auto parts rose 6.92%, and auto sales and services rose 0.48%. In the concept sector, the new energy vehicle index fell 7.57% and the intelligent vehicle index rose 4.30%. After rising for two consecutive years, the whole vehicle and new energy vehicle sectors have weakened recently; Auto parts and intelligent vehicles with relatively small increase in the early stage strengthened.
Huawei automobile progress tracking: on December 21, the online intelligent automobile solution ecological forum was held, and the first automobile of AITO brand was released on December 23. 1) As a supplier, Huawei provides three digital bases for smart cars: ① smart car digital platform idvp: including computing and communication architecture CCA, on-board operating system, multi domain collaborative software framework hascore and tool chain, with more than 70 ecological partners; ② The intelligent driving computing platform MDC has released mdc210 / 610 / 810 at present, and is expected to release mdc100 in 22 years. It has won more than 6 fixed-point contracts in the passenger car market; In the commercial / special vehicle market, more than 11 commercial project contracts have been obtained. ③ Harmonyos intelligent cockpit has established cooperative relations with 50 peripheral hardware ecological partners and 100 application partners. 2) Huawei AITO brand released the first model M5, with a pre price range of 250000-320000 yuan. The new car is equipped with Huawei driveone pure electric drive extended range platform, 1.5T four cylinder engine, front and rear dual motors, maximum power of 365kw and zero acceleration of 4.4S; Support L2 + ADAS, including Lane cruise assist, driving blind zone warning, front radar warning, lane offset and 360 degree intelligent panoramic parking.
In the first three weeks of the conference, both wholesale and retail sales increased by 23% month on month, and continued to improve. From the perspective of wholesale, the average daily sales in the first three weeks were 46000, 62000 and 72000 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 12.0%, – 3.1% and 4.6% respectively, and became regular year-on-year in the third week; The chain ratios were 17%, 30% and 21% respectively, continuing high growth; On the first three Sundays of December, 62000 vehicles were approved for sale, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.0% and a month on month increase of 23%. The month on month improvement was far more than seasonal, reflecting that the inventory was replenished as scheduled after the “core shortage” was alleviated. From the perspective of retail, the average daily sales in the first three weeks were 40000, 53000 and 67000 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 16.5%, – 7.0% and – 8.3% respectively, which was affected by the high base of last year; The chain ratios were 1%, 17% and 38% respectively; The average retail sales in the first three Sundays of December was 55000, with a year-on-year increase of – 9.6% and a month on month increase of 23%.
Investment suggestions: 1) continue to be optimistic about auto parts and pay attention to: ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② Lightweight, focus on Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ; ③ Intelligent driving industry chain, Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , sunny optical technology, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Nextel, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) ; 2) The trend of independent rise is clear. The vehicle manufacturer suggests paying attention to Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , and the undervalued value Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) .
Risk tip: the lack of chips exceeded expectations, resulting in the industry recovery less than expected; The progress of intelligent electric is less than expected; Bulk price increases and core deficiency fermentation exceeded expectations.
