Core view
After the real estate cycle this week, the sectors of furniture, white appliances, kitchen appliances and black appliances rose, showing a relatively strong performance. The CSI 300 index fell 0.67% this week. Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle, furniture, white appliances, kitchen appliances and black appliances rose 4.12%, 2.45%, 1.27% and 0.57% respectively this week, outperforming the market by 4.80pct, 3.12pct, 1.94pct and 1.24pct respectively; Services Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , lighting electricians and small household appliances fell by 5.32%, 2.00% and 1.60% respectively this week, outperforming the market by 4.64pct, 1.33pct and 0.92pct respectively.
Domestic sales: in November, the retail sales of furniture and household appliances continued to increase year-on-year. (1) Upstream raw material prices: this week, the price of furniture plate fell, the price of chemical raw materials for soft furniture rose, the price of copper and aluminum rose, and the price of plastic raw materials fell. (2) China's real estate demand: in November, the sales area of new houses continued to increase negatively year-on-year, and the completed area turned to positive year-on-year growth; in November, the transaction volume of second-hand houses continued to decline year-on-year. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the national residential sales area decreased by 16.3% year-on-year in November 2021, and 6.8% year-on-year in November 2019; in terms of second-hand house transactions, the second-hand houses in 10 major cities in China in November 2021 The trading volume was 40500 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 38%; In terms of the opening of hardbound houses, according to the statistical data of ovicloud, the opening volume of hardbound houses in China was about 273000 units in October 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 29.2%. (3) Retail tracking: in November 2021, the retail sales of furniture and home appliances increased by 6.1% and 6.6% year-on-year. According to the monitoring data of ovicloud, in November 2021, the integrated stove and sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) The online retail sales of and dishwashers increased by 42.3%, 35.1% and 4.7% respectively year-on-year, the online sales of kitchen large electricity and kitchen small household appliances decreased by 11.3% and 26.7% respectively year-on-year, and the online retail sales of cleaning appliances increased by 27.1% year-on-year. The driving force mainly comes from emerging categories such as floor washers. According to the statistics of Amoy data platform, in November 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of sales of key brands such as integrated stoves and clean appliances improved significantly, and the year-on-year growth rate of many brands of small kitchen, TV and university was still negative.
Export: in November, the export volume of range hoods and other categories continued the high growth trend since the third quarter, and the year-on-year growth rate of export volume of vacuum cleaners, kitchen appliances and other categories fell as a whole. (1) Overseas real estate demand: in November 2021, the sales of existing homes in the United States decreased by 2% year-on-year and continued to grow negatively; in November, the number of new construction increased by 8% year-on-year and turned to positive growth. (2) Export performance of sectors and sub categories: in November 2021, the export volume of furniture and household appliances industry maintained a positive year-on-year growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2% and 22% respectively. The growth rate of furniture export volume decreased significantly. According to the data disclosed by the General Administration of customs, the export volume of air conditioners, washing machines, range hoods and other categories continued the high growth trend since the third quarter in November 2021, and the export volume of vacuum cleaners and other categories increased year-on-year The growth rate fell.
Investment proposal and investment object
The demand for domestic sales and export continued to grow rapidly in the post real estate cycle. It is suggested to pay attention to the customized home leading Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (002572, buy), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (603833, overweight), Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) (300616, overweight), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (603801, not rated), software furniture leading Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (603816, not rated); Benefiting from the high growth of emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances, it is recommended to pay attention to China's floor sweepers Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leaders Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486, overweight), Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (688169, buy), small household appliances leaders with continuous category innovation Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) (002242, overweight), Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) (002705, buy), Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) (002959, overweight), Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) (300824, overweight).
Risk statement
The risk of real estate sales and completion falling short of expectations, and the risk of sharp rise in the price of raw materials
