Key investment points
Investment strategy: this week, China is generally affected by the cold wave, with a significant cooling, and the daily consumption may accelerate to rise. At present, high calorie coal is scarce, and the cold wave may drive the rapid digestion of inventory, while the supply side has contracted as a whole due to the completion of production tasks at the end of the year. Due to the limited supply of double coke, the output level control target of downstream steel mills has been achieved, the steel output has increased month on month, the demand for replenishment has improved, and the overall improvement is obvious. In the medium and long term, under the background of lack of planned investment, the constraints on the coal supply side are strong. Under the background of small annual growth in demand, coal will be a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity or high profits. The increase of the benchmark price of the annual long-term association also ensures the ability of the industry to maintain high profitability. Under the dual carbon goal, coal enterprises urgently need to transform, invest in energy Yankuang, Shenhua, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) and others mainly focus on new energy operation and hydrogen energy. The coal industry has the advantages of strong cash flow and rich land resources in new energy operation, and has the ability and willingness, The transformation in the direction of new energy is conducive to improving the overall sector valuation level (at present, the PE valuation is 5-6 times). Coal assets need to be repriced and continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector. It is suggested to pay attention to power coal stocks: Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . It is suggested to pay attention to metallurgical coal stocks: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) 。 Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Summary and Prospect of power coal: coal prices continue to decline, and the cold wave will drive the daily consumption to increase. This week, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal produced in QinGang Shanxi was 940 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, continuing the decline. In terms of supply, the supply guarantee policy has not been withdrawn, the overall supply is abundant, the wait-and-see in the downstream market is still obvious, and the procurement scale has not been significantly improved; Beigang’s price weakened and its willingness to ship increased, but the inventory of downstream power plants was high, the procurement slowed down, and the import and export volume of the port declined; With the advancement of environmental protection and safety inspection, some areas have reduced production and stopped production due to over production. In terms of demand, the inventory of power plants decreased slightly. As of December 23, the coal inventory of power plants in eight coastal provinces was 34.844 million tons, and the daily consumption was 2.144 million tons. The daily consumption increased slowly. At present, the inventory is still high, and the cold wave warning rose to yellow at the end of the year, which is expected to drive the daily consumption to rise. Internationally, Australia is affected by rain, production and transportation are affected, and international coal prices have risen recently. Overall, follow-up attention will be paid to the cold wave weather and inventory consumption. At present, high calorie coal is still scarce, and the cold wave may drive the coal inventory consumption faster.
Summary and Prospect of coking coal: the market supported by both supply and demand continues to improve. The price of mainstream coking coal rebounded this week, Price increase of Shanxi produced main coke coal depot in Jingtang Port (tax included) 2450 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. On the supply side, the supply in the main production areas decreased due to the increased safety inspection and the automatic production reduction and maintenance of some coal mines. On the import side, the customs clearance at Ganqi Maodu port remained at about 100 vehicles, which was still low. The downstream procurement was active, but the available resources of Mongolian coal were limited, superimposed on the strong operation of China’s coking coal price, and the price of Mongolian coal The grid is stable at a recent high. In terms of demand, due to the gradual decline of inventory and the tightening of supply, the downstream coke enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish the storage in winter, and the coke plant has significantly improved its enthusiasm to sign bills, supporting the good operation of coal prices. Overall, China’s coking coal market continued to improve, supply continued to tighten, purchase willingness was strong, coal prices continued to rise, and follow-up continued to pay attention to the downstream coke demand.
Coke summary and Outlook: supply continues to tighten and replenishment demand increases. As of December 24, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 2560 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis, and the national average profit per ton of coke was about 88 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, due to the impact of environmental protection policies, some coke enterprises in Shanxi have been shut down. With the advent of the Winter Olympic Games, the intensity of production restriction has increased, and the short-term supply will continue to be tightened. Last week, coke enterprises in the origin increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. Some steel mills and traders have implemented price increases, and most other mainstream steel mills mainly wait and see. In terms of demand, considering the impact of weather and environmental protection on uncertainty in the later stage, downstream steel mills have increased replenishment efforts and actively inquired for goods, and the inventory of some steel mills has risen to a medium high level. On the whole, coke has a strong willingness to increase. Under the condition of actively replenishing storage, some steel mills have had a dark rise. Follow up attention will be paid to the resumption of production of steel mills and the impact of raw coal rebound.
Power coal: the port coal price fell and the port inventory increased. (1) As of December 24, the price of 5500 kcal of Shanxi thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port was 940 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) as of December 24, the price of Newcastle thermal coal was 187.37 US dollars / ton, up 5.2% on a weekly basis. (3) as of December 24, the railway transfer volume of Qinhuangdao port was 586000 tons, up 67000 tons on a weekly basis. (4) As of December 17, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 5.09 million tons, an increase of 190000 tons; the inventory of Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) was 1.918 million tons, an increase of 200000 tons.
Coking coal: the price of coking coal in China has risen, and the inventory of coking plants has increased month on month. (1) As of December 23, the price increase (including tax) of Shanxi main coking coal depot of Jingtang Port was 2450 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton month on month. (2) as of December 23, the price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine was 369.75 dollars / ton, up 2.92% week on week. (3) as of December 24, the total inventory of coking coal of 100 independent coking plants in China was 6.3766 million tons, up 2779 thousand tons week on week.
Coke: the price was flat month on month, and the operating rate of coking plant decreased. (1) As of December 24, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 2560 yuan / ton, which was flat on a weekly basis. (2) as of December 24, the coke oven productivity of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 61.70%, and the weekly rate decreased by 0.45%. (3) as of December 24, the national blast furnace operating rate was 45.99%, and the weekly rate decreased by 0.42%. (4) As of December 24, three types of coking enterprises (production capacity)
<100 万吨；产能 100-200 万吨；产能>
2 million tons) total coke inventory was 380100 tons, with a decrease of 61900 tons around the ring.
Review of industry highlights: (1) the newly increased production capacity of coal mine projects approved or under approval for EIA since October has exceeded 127 million tons / year (2) nearly 60% of the imported coal in the first five provinces and regions accounted for Guangdong’s return to the first province to import coal (3) Shaanxi coal group completed the target task of entering Chongqing in 2021 14 days in advance (4) the coal storage of Guizhou unified dispatching thermal power plant exceeded 8 million tons (5) Japan’s coal imports in November increased by 13.6% year-on-year, a new high in recent two years
Risk tip: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Coal import impact risk.
