Zhou viewpoint
1. New energy vehicles
In mid November Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) , the number of automobile insurance increased steadily month on month and the structure was healthy
In our opinion, 1) from the perspective of the nature of use, the demand for new energy vehicles is still dominated by the C-end. In November, the proportion of non business remains above 80%, and the structure of the demand end is healthy. 2) From a regional perspective, among the insurance volume of major provinces and cities in November, the proportion of insurance volume in Henan Province decreased by 2.8pct month on month, and the change range of other provinces and cities was relatively small. 3) In terms of models, the top five models with insurance coverage are more diversified, with Class A, A00 and B accounting for 33.3%, 23.6% and 19.2% respectively. Demand presents a pattern of high-end + economy, and continues to be optimistic about the opportunities in the middle and upper reaches brought by the development trend of polarization.
Core view:
We believe that with the continuous improvement of sales structure and quality of new energy vehicles and the continuous introduction of high-quality new models, supply will drive demand change, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to accelerate, and the sales volume is expected to achieve rapid growth. Optimistic:
1) Leading high growth and high certainty opportunities, the core supply chain of Tesla, Volkswagen MEB platform, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG chemistry, new forces, Hongguang miniev and other models with best-selling potential;
2) Subdivide the leading track and have significant technology / cost moat advantages in the industry competition;
3) Cathode materials, lithium salt additives, conductive agents and other links that drive technological innovation and product iteration;
4) The demand for high nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased due to the development of high-end + economic polarization, and the pattern of ternary cathode materials has been continuously optimized under the trend of high nickel;
5) The increase of sales volume drives the increase of demand. It is expected that the supply and demand of diaphragm, copper foil, lithium hexafluorophosphate and negative electrode (graphitization) are tight;
6) The accelerated layout of production capacity is expected to significantly benefit the related targets of the rapid growth of industry demand;
7) Second tier targets that benefit from the growth of the industry and the continuous improvement of their own competitiveness and are expected to expand market share;
8) Energy storage, two wheeled vehicles and other segments with structural opportunities; And continuously improve the charging and replacement facilities.
Beneficiary objects: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co.Ltd(300953) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) , etc.
2. New energy
The list of the first batch of 97gw large-scale wind power and photovoltaic base construction projects was released
We believe that: 1) China’s deserts, Gobi and desert areas have a vast area and relatively sufficient scenery resources. The construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects in such areas is conducive to solving the problem of land resource shortage in the development of wind power and photovoltaic industry, and can effectively improve resource utilization and development efficiency; 2) The first batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects with an installed capacity of 100 million kW in China have been started successively in October. The second batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases are being declared in an orderly manner. The large-scale project base will become an important part of China’s wind power and photovoltaic development in the future and will form a strong support for the new installed capacity in 2022 and 2023; 3) China’s goals of “carbon peak”, “carbon neutralization” and the development of renewable energy are clear. The project construction list issued this time defines the scale, committed utilization rate and production time of the projects approved by each province. The subsequent planned projects are expected to be steadily promoted, and the development of renewable energy dominated by photovoltaic and wind power is expected to accelerate.
Core view:
(1) Photovoltaic
In the short term, the downward cost price of each link of the industrial chain will stimulate the willingness of downstream installation; With the gradual implementation of superimposed large-scale scenery base projects and distributed photovoltaic projects throughout the county, the photovoltaic landscape is expected to continue to rise in the future.
In the medium and long term, “carbon peak”, “carbon neutralization” and the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% / 25% in 2025 / 2030. The goal is clear. New energy such as photovoltaic will play an important role in energy transformation and carbon emission reduction in the future.
Pay attention to the supply-demand relationship under market changes and structural opportunities under technological changes, such as inverter, photovoltaic adhesive film, photovoltaic glass, vertically integrated manufacturers, distributed photovoltaic, consumables and equipment links, photovoltaic support, etc.
Beneficiary objects: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , etc.
(2) Wind power
In the short term, the trend of large-scale fan is significant, and the overall cost is expected to decline; With the continuous promotion of large-scale landscape base projects and the acceleration of offshore wind power cost reduction, the wind power landscape is expected to be improved. In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”, and we continue to be optimistic about the installed demand and development space of the wind power industry.
Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the following links: 1) the wind power landscape continues to rise, and look forward to the opportunities of domestic components under the trend of large-scale and pattern change, such as tower, main shaft, casting, blade and so on; 2) Optimistic about the profit recovery link under the price adjustment of raw materials;
3) Optimistic about the domestic replacement of precision parts such as spindle bearings; 4) Be optimistic about the opportunities under the change of whole machine link pattern and technology change; 5) The cost of offshore wind power continues to drop, and the demand is expected to continue to increase. We are optimistic about marine products, submarine cables and other related links.
Beneficiary objects: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , etc.
(3) Energy storage
In 2025, the target of energy storage installed capacity, market position and business model have been clarified, relevant national and local policies have been further improved, and energy storage will accelerate with renewable energy; With the application of new derived ecosystems such as superimposed distributed power stations, charging piles and microgrids, energy storage on the generation side, grid side and user side will meet new application requirements. We are optimistic about the three main lines of lithium battery, inverter and energy storage system integration under the development opportunity of energy storage, and benefit targets: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) .
Risk statement
The development of new energy vehicle industry does not meet expectations; Risk of sharp decline in product price; The risk of epidemic development exceeded expectations.
