This week’s market review. In the 52nd week, the real estate sector index was stronger than the CSI 300 index and the gem index. The relative return of the real estate sector over the CSI 300 index was + 1.9%. The CSI 300 index closed at 4921.34, with a weekly increase of – 0.7%; The gem index closed at 3297.11, with a weekly increase of – 4.0%; The real estate sector index closed at 3349.85, with a weekly increase of 1.2%.
Industry highlights this week. The central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission encouraged mergers and acquisitions of high-quality projects of real estate enterprises in danger, and increased bond financing support. The central bank announced LPR in January. Tianjin sold 110 residential land throughout the year, with a transaction area of 7.158 million square meters and a transaction amount of 104.96 billion yuan. Xu Jiayin’s shareholding in Evergrande property decreased from 61.0% to 58.2%, involving 300 million shares. Two plots of land in Chengdu of Evergrande group were recovered free of charge. The third batch of centralized land supply in Beijing, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, Changchun, Tianjin, Shenyang and Ningbo continued to be hot.
Sales of new and second-hand houses increased this week compared with last week. In the 52nd week, the sales of new houses in 29 major cities was 42000, an increase of 17.3% over the 51st week; The sales of second-hand houses in 11 major cities was 8000 units, an increase of 8.5% over the 51st week; Compared with the 51st week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in first tier cities were 20.4% and 17.0% respectively; Compared with the 51st week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in second tier cities were 21.3% and 1.4% respectively. The inventory increased compared with last week, and the inventory sales ratio was the same as last week. As of the 52nd week, the inventory in 15 major cities was 1.25 million sets, an increase of 10000 sets compared with the 51st week; The stock to sales ratio was 12.8 months, unchanged from the 51st week. The land market transfer heat this week increased compared with last week. In the 52nd week, a total of 40 pieces of land were sold in 26 big cities, an increase of 36 pieces compared with the 51st week. The amount of land transfer increased. The land transfer fee in 26 major cities was 80.22 billion yuan, an increase of 78.23 billion yuan over the 51st week. The average premium rate fell. The average premium rate of land transaction was 0.2%, down 5.6 percentage points from the 51st week. The number of land auction is 1.
Announcement of key companies. There are personnel changes in Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) , Oceanwide Holdings Co.Ltd(000046) directors and senior executives. Major shareholders of Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , China-Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park Development Group Co.Ltd(601512) , Sichuan Languang Development Co.Ltd(600466) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Financial Street Holdings Co.Ltd(000402) , Vantone Neo Development Group Co.Ltd(600246) , Shunfa Hengye Corporation(000631) , Oct a, Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) reduce the shares of the company.
Investment proposal and investment object
Sales of new and second-hand houses continued to rebound this week. Under the support of loose credit policy, the industry began to show a weak recovery. However, considering the current credit environment of the industry and the serious decline in real estate sales, the downward inertia of the market is still, and the individual risk of real estate enterprises has not subsided. With the arrival of the off-season sales, the industry fundamentals may continue to decline in the first quarter of next year. It is expected that greater policy benefits may be brewing at that time. Under the dual pressure of market sales and credit environment, industry liquidation may accelerate, mergers and acquisitions may be more frequent, and the valuation and repair of real estate enterprises that continue to be optimistic about financial security. We are optimistic about the first-line leaders with stable performance, and recommend Poly Real Estate (600048, buy) and Vanke A (00000 2, buy); Second tier leaders with flexible performance are recommended Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383, buy) and Xuhui holding group (00884, buy). At the same time, we are optimistic about the property management and business management industries with rapid growth and strong consumption attributes. We recommend Xuhui Yongsheng service (01995, buy), Country Garden Service (06098, buy), poly property (06049, buy), China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) (001914, overweight), New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) (002968, buy), rongchuang service (01516, buy), Xingsheng Commerce (06668, buy), Baolong Commerce (09909, buy).
Risk statement
Sales were significantly lower than expected.
The counter cyclical policy was less than expected. Interest rates have risen significantly
