Recent market review
In November, the CSI 300 index fell 1.56%, The home appliance (CITIC) industry rose 0.08%, outperforming the market by 1.64 percentage points, ranking 22nd among the 30 CITIC first-class industries. Among them, the lighting electrician and other sub industries rose 5.36%, the white home electronics industry fell 2.09%, the kitchen appliance sub industry rose 1.26%, the black home appliance sub industry rose 9.31%, and the small home electronics industry rose 5.09%. In terms of individual stocks, the top gainers were Jiangsu Chunlan Refrigerating Equipment Stock Co.Ltd(600854) (+ 70.12%), Hangzhou Star Shuaier Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002860) (47.73%), Zhenjiang Dongfang Electric Heating Technology Co.Ltd(300217) (39.44%), Xiamen R&T Plumbing Technology Co.Ltd(002790) (35.83%) and Ningbo Sunlight Electrical Appliance Co.Ltd(002473) (32.29%); the largest decreases were Guangdong Tonze Electric Co.Ltd(002759) (- 16.73%), Whirlpool (China) Co.Ltd(600983) (- 10.50%), Jiangsu Yinhe Electronics Co.Ltd(002519) (- 7.34%), Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) (- 6.41%) and Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) (- 5.70%). In November, the overall valuation of the home appliance industry was basically the same as that of the previous month, ranking in the middle and lower reaches of 30 CITIC first-class industries. In terms of valuation, as of November 30, the overall valuation of the home appliance industry was 17.8 times (pe-ttm, excluding negative value), compared with CSI 300, the valuation premium rate is 144.72%, including 14.30 times for white appliances, 21.36 times for black appliances, 26.06 times for small appliances, 33.66 times for lighting electricians and other sectors, and 18.95 times for kitchen appliances.
Industry operation data
Air conditioning: in terms of output: in November 2021, China produced 16.628 million air conditioners in the current month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.70%. From January to November this year, China’s cumulative output of air conditioners reached 197.414 million, with a year-on-year increase of 11.40%. According to the industry online statistics, the total production schedule of the household air conditioning industry in November was 10.85 million units, down 2.3% from the actual production performance of the same period last year, which was slightly reduced, mainly because the domestic demand of the air conditioning market has been relatively low since the third quarter, and the industry is in the off-season at present. Sales volume and price: according to the statistics of ovicloud, in November, the offline sales volume of household air conditioner decreased by 21.43% year-on-year, the sales volume decreased by 30.75% year-on-year, and the average price was 4120 yuan, an increase of 487 yuan year-on-year. From January to November, the cumulative off-line sales of air conditioning reached 32.076 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.72%; Offline sales totaled 8.5339 million units, down 4.89% year-on-year. In November, the online sales volume of household air conditioners decreased by 12.62% year-on-year, the sales volume decreased by 15.24% year-on-year, and the average price was 2970 yuan, an increase of 89 yuan year-on-year. From January to November, the cumulative sales of air conditioning online reached 78.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.31%; Online cumulative sales reached 26.9577 million units, down 1.85% year-on-year.
Refrigerator: output: as of November 2021, the cumulative output of domestic refrigerators in China this year reached 82.533 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.20%; Among them, the monthly output in November was 8.085 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.30%. Sales volume: according to the statistics of ovicloud, the monthly sales volume of the refrigerator line decreased by 14.46% year-on-year in November, and the sales volume decreased by 27.52% year-on-year. In November, the monthly sales volume of refrigerator online decreased by 8.66% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased by 10.32% year-on-year. Price: the average price of the refrigerator industry has increased significantly since the second quarter of last year. According to the statistics of ovicloud, in November 2021, the offline average price of the refrigerator industry was 6602 yuan, an increase of 1123 yuan year-on-year; The average online price of the refrigerator industry was 2940 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 196 yuan. Washing machines: output: as of November 2021, the cumulative output of domestic washing machines in China this year reached 78.33 million, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year; Among them, the monthly output in November reached 8.438 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.50%. Sales volume: according to the statistics of ovicloud, the monthly sales volume of washing machine line in November decreased by 14.46% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased by 27.52% year-on-year. In November, the monthly sales volume of washing machine online decreased by 8.66% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased by 10.32% year-on-year. In terms of raw materials, the household appliance industry is mainly composed of aluminum, copper and plastics. Since last year, the price of raw materials in the home appliance industry has been rising. Since May, the price of raw materials has fallen. At present, although it is still in the high price range, it is difficult to maintain the expectation of continuous growth. As of November 30, the spot settlement price of LME aluminum was USD 2639.50/t, up 29.41% year-on-year; LME copper spot settlement price was USD 9515.5/t, with a year-on-year increase of 25.71%; The spot price of 1mm cold-rolled ordinary sheet was 5614 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 18.74%.
Investment suggestion in November, the sales volume of online and offline full categories of the home appliance industry decreased by 1.36% and 14.81% year-on-year respectively, and the sales volume decreased by 20.2% and 28.55% year-on-year respectively. The subdivided industries of household appliances continued to differentiate, and the high-profile of emerging products such as integrated stoves and clothes dryers continued. According to the statistics of ovicloud, the online and offline sales of integrated stoves increased by 42.3% / 30.98% year-on-year respectively in November, and the online and offline sales of clothes dryers increased by 95.5% / 52.01% year-on-year respectively. In contrast, the sales of traditional household appliances were under pressure. In conclusion, the industry is given a “optimistic” rating for the time being. Investment suggestions: white power sector: since the beginning of the year, the valuation of white power sector has continued to callback. We believe that it has long-term allocation value at present, It is recommended to pay attention to Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (000333), Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) (600690), Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) (000651); kitchen electricity sector: the prosperity of emerging household appliances such as integrated stoves and dishwashers continues. It is recommended to pay attention to the leaders of emerging household appliances industry enjoying high growth dividends of the industry, and it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) (002677), Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) (300911), Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) (300894); small household appliances sector: affected by last year’s high base, the overall performance this year is lower than expected, and the pressure of high base in the fourth quarter is expected to be relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) (300824).
Risk indicates the risk of macroeconomic environment fluctuation; The risk of recurrent outbreaks; Risk of exchange loss caused by exchange rate fluctuation; Risk of serious decline in industry terminal demand; The risk of declining prosperity of overseas exports.
