Report guide
Baijiu: 22Q1 liquor enterprises or will be welcome to grow faster and lower than expected growth. (expect for Moutai and price reform and expected spring festival stock market expectations), Baijiu plate will not change to the good trend, and suggest that the bargain should be added. From top to bottom, we firmly believe in the logic of attack and defense, which is catalyzing the high-end liquor that is being gradually fulfilled, and the first is Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ； From the bottom up, we first recommend 22 years of high elasticity & high certainty, which is expected to usher in Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and so on. Food sector: in the short term, we think we should pay attention to the performance of annual stock preparation and stick to the three main investment lines in the long term: we think it is to look for structural opportunities and grasp the three main investment lines: 1) food and catering industrialization; 2) New business increase α Subject matter; 3) High quality target with price increase logic.
December 20th ~12 24, 5 trading days, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.67%, the food and beverage sector rose 3.76%, the Baijiu plate rose more than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, or 4.29%. Specifically, the increase of Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) (+ 12.06%) and Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) (+ 9.63%) in the beverage sector was relatively large, and the decrease of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) (- 4.37%) and Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) (- 3.94%) was relatively large; the increase of Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) (+ 13.85%) and Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (+ 11.74%) in the food sector was relatively top, and the increase of Maiquer Group Co.Ltd(002719) (- 10.35%) and Henan Kedi Dairy Co.Ltd(002770) (- 7.49%) were relatively bottom.
This week's view
1、 [liquor sector]: it is recommended to add matching on bargain hunting, and 22q1 liquor enterprises may make a good start
Plate review: this week, the price increase of high-end wine is expected to strengthen again, and 22q1 is optimistic about a good start
December 20th ~12 24, 5 trading days, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.67%, the food and beverage sector rose 3.76%, the Baijiu plate rose more than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, or 4.29%. The Baijiu plate is specific. Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) (+ 9.63%), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (6.99%), Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) (+ 5.26%), Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (+ 5.26%) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (+ 2.88%) led the increase. The overall performance of high-end liquor this week was strong, mainly due to: 1) near the end of the year, the market's expectation of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) about to put forward factory price has been increasing; 2) in the recent period Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) The price adjustment notice was sent again, showing that the recommended price of 52 / 38 degree Guojiao 1573 classic package group purchase was adjusted to 1100 and 800 yuan / bottle, and the Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) wholesale prices steadily improved under the price increase; 3) The dealers' Spring Festival payment and goods preparation work has begun. The main liquor enterprises' pre Festival payment progress goal is positive and can be expected, and the channel confidence is sufficient. 22q1 is expected to make a good start; 4) under the condition of more uncertain information and lower expectations, the Baijiu plate adjustment is obvious, and the current valuation is still cost-effective.
We think: in the short term, according to the tracking of the payment and delivery rhythm of wine enterprises in the near future, we think that wine enterprise 22q1 has a certain certainty of a good start; Baijiu Baijiu has continued to improve in the medium and long term. The dynamic differentiation of the plate continues to explain: the Baijiu industry in 2022 is still in the boom. The absolute value of liquor enterprises will steadily increase under the main line of price increase, and usher in a higher quality development. The liquor industry is now in the process of "structural cattle".
This week's survey update: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) , high-end wine, Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) , Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499)
1、 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : 1) new changes this year - the superposition of 2000 + market with classics as the core of falipu five to make a series of wine brand adjustment (still promoting, and the key arrangement will be made for wuliangchun next year); 2) systematic arrangement next year - the main brand will present a two wheel drive pattern: first, adhere to consolidating the core position of the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) thousand yuan price to bring large single product market; Second, adhere to the 2000+ Baijiu liquor market, the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) aspect, next year the company will turn more to the consumer's sense of identity, IP value enhancement, brand strength promotion, thus driving the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in scale and price promotion.
II Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (2021 global dealer Conference): 1) review of reform: the billion yuan market has increased to 28, the number of dealers has increased to 2944, the number of terminal controls has increased to 1 million, the average growth rate of the market in the south of the Yangtze River is 60%, and the cumulative growth rate of Qinghua Fen Liquor has exceeded four times in five years; 2) outlook for next year: around 133238 Fen Liquor Marketing Reform, set a goal, fight three battles, build three major markets and promote Enter two major projects, closely follow three indicators and do a good job in eight persistence.
3、 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) : first, products, 1) product structure: at present, shede / Tuopai accounts for 80% and 20%, taste accounts for 60%, the way of giving up accounts for 20%, wisdom accounts for 20%, and some high-end collections are shede; 2) Collection willing: the recent price increase is mainly to stabilize the price; 3) Tuopai: the customization in the first half of the year will help Tuopai recover as soon as possible, but it will be tightened in the second half of the year (Tuopai will be more in investment promotion next year); second, marketing: it is expected to increase investment.
4、 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (Fuyu Conference): 1) channel: continuous cooperation between excellent merchants, increased customer value, increased the number of core terminals by 233%, strengthened circle marketing, and more than 400 tasting conferences were held throughout the year. 2) Outlook: 2022 is a window of major opportunities. The company puts forward the 1349 concept, that is, one concept, three directions, four support points and nine core strategies.
5、 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) : the rated prices of sky blue and M3 crystal version are about 310 and 410 yuan respectively. M6 + is expected to increase by 40% in the whole year. The crystal dream has been replaced by 90%. At present, the upgrading of sky blue is smooth, and the Shuanggou series will continue to develop in a high growth trend. The company has started to prepare goods at the end of November. It is expected that the rhythm of 22q1 preparation will be 40% +, reaching a high degree of success (low inventory + stop invoicing in the early stage).
Six, Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) : first, Baijiu products: still upgrading to the main line, the scale of treasures is about 300 million this year, and the number of treasures +1 is expected to reach 4-5 billion this year. 2) Sanniu: it will be promoted as the main product in the future, and the epidemic situation will have a great impact on sanniu. Second, in terms of market, the markets in southeast coastal areas, Southeast, South China and central China perform better. Third, in terms of real estate, the company has not yet defined the transaction party.
7、 Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) : I. standard product: the total proportion of flow type liquor accounts for about 70%. The overall contribution of Maotai and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is similar, and the increase in the price of famous liquor has little impact on the company's gross profit margin. 2、 New customized wine products: Q4 company cooperates with Xijiu to launch the gilded version of Xijiu cellar 1988 / the first golden drunkard internal reference and other high margin customized products. 3、 Lotus: real and vigorous demand, accurate and vertical promotion means, thousand yuan lotus jade: customer ordering enthusiasm / excellent dynamic sales, high consumer acceptance.
8、 Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) : I. product: 450ml Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) is the largest single product. In the future, the company will consider raising the price under the condition of ensuring the company's gross profit margin + net profit + market stability; 2、 Market: the company has established a sales network in about 30 provinces in China. At the same time, the marketing personnel will increase significantly under the background of nationalization. Next year, the company will usher in the stage of comprehensive expansion. 3、 Production capacity: at present, the company has set up five production bases in China. With the production of Hebi Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) , the company's production capacity reaches a scale of 400000 + tons. Jiangxi Shanggao and Zhejiang Longyou projects are also in progress. It is expected that the trial production will be carried out next year and the next year, and the output scale of Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) will be about 550000-600000 tons.
9、 Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) : First: classic Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) : confident to continue to grow and strive to become a 10 billion single product; 2、 New product: 0 sugar is relatively successful, and the development space of Jiaxi needs to be improved. It is expected that Jiaxi will be revised in 2022. In addition, the company recently launched the "she can" female energy drink to expand the female population. 3、 Market: Guangdong will continue to grow in 2022, and the number of terminals is increasing. East China is expected to continue to increase in 2022, and North China has a lot of room for improvement.
Data update: the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rating rose slightly this week, and the overall inventory performance was healthy
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the wholesale price of Feitian bulk bottles is about 2780-2900 yuan, and the wholesale price of the whole container is about 3300-3500 yuan. The wholesale price of Sanmao has increased slightly. Recently, some dealers have begun to prepare goods for the Spring Festival, It is estimated that about 25% of the annual quota will be completed (from January to February), and the price has not changed; Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : the wholesale price is stable at 970-980 yuan this week, and the wholesale price of classic clothes is about 1700-1800 yuan. Since the price increase of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , contracts are being signed in the coming year. It is estimated that 20% of the payment will be collected before 1218 and 40% before the Spring Festival; Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the wholesale price is about 900-910 yuan, and the payment collection of Guojiao in 21 has been completed (+ 35%), the growth target of Guojiao next year is 30%, and the overall performance of the wholesale price is stable.
Investment suggestions: Baijiu Spring Festival stocking market, suggest that the bargain plus
Spring Festival stock market has arrived, optimistic about a good start. We believe that the current plate fluctuations are mostly emotional (News) level triggered fluctuations, from a fundamental perspective, the overall fundamentals of liquor enterprises as a whole, 22Q1 wine enterprises will meet the high growth rate, with the expected part of the early part of the expected increase will continue to increase (such as Moutai price increase and marketing reform pre season / Spring Festival stock market expectations), Baijiu plate to the good trend does not change, suggest that the bargain plus matching.
[Conclusion] from top to bottom, we are firmly optimistic about the logic of both attack and Defense & catalyzing the gradual realization of high-end wine, with Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ; From the bottom up, we first recommend 22 years of high elasticity & high certainty, which is expected to usher in Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and so on.
2、 [food sector]: pay attention to the performance of annual stock in the short term and stick to the three main investment lines in the long term
Sector review: the food sector rose as a whole this week
Plate growth: food processing sector rose 3.18%, of which the seasoning plate rose 0.95%, the dairy sector rose 2.81%, the meat plate rose 4.10%, and the food composite plate was unchanged from last week.
In terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks: Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) (+ 13.85%), Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (+ 11.74%), Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) (+ 10.46%) were among the top three in the sector. In the meat sector, Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) (+ 10.46%), Jiangxi Huangshanghuang Group Food Co.Ltd(002695) (+ 7.57%), Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) (+ 5.61%) led the rise; in the seasoning sector, Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) (+ 6.66%), Guangdong Jialong Food Co.Ltd(002495) (+ 4.72%), Zhongjing Food Co.Ltd(300908) (+ 4.36%); in the dairy sector, Beijing Sanyuan Foods Co.Ltd(600429) (+ 5.18%), Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) (+ 4.51%), Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (+ 3.44%) increased significantly; in the snack food sector, Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) (+ 13.85%), Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (+ 11.74%) and Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) (+ 8.16%) increased significantly.
Update this week: reiterate the three main lines, Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) research update
Annual strategy of food sector in 2022: looking for structural opportunities and grasping the three main investment lines
1. 2021 sector review:
The performance in the past 21 years has been under pressure, but it is in danger. The performance of the popular products sector was slightly weak in 21 years, mainly due to the slow recovery of terminal demand; At the same time, the cost of raw materials continues to rise, resulting in greater cost pressure on the industry. The revenue of 21q1-q3 food processing sector decreased by 3% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 20% year-on-year;
Segment: the performance of individual segments is bright, the performance of dairy products, baking and brine products is relatively good, and 21q1-q3 has achieved double growth of revenue and profit; The profit side of leisure snacks, condiments and pre-processing decreased year-on-year.
Stock price and Valuation: as of December 13, the CSI 300 rose by 7.88%, and the food sub sector fell by different ranges this year. In terms of Valuation: according to the distribution of valuation data from 2016 to 2021, the current valuation level of popular products sector is in the quantile of 40% - 55%, among which the valuation of food processing, pre-processing food and halogen products is at a historically low level, and the valuation of condiments, dairy products, baked goods and snacks is in the normal range.
2. Looking forward to next year: optimistic about structural opportunities and grasp the three main investment lines
1) Investment main line 1: optimistic about investment opportunities brought by food and catering industrialization
2) Investment mainline 2: pay attention to owning new business to bring α Underlying investment opportunities
3) Investment main line 3: pay attention to high-quality target investment opportunities under the price rise logic.
3. Investment suggestions:
1) Key recommendation: we mainly recommend the target of performance & Valuation:
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) 、 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) 、 Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) 、 Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.Ltd(603020) 、 Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) 、 Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338)
2) It is suggested to pay attention to the subject matter of high performance increase or expected improvement in valuation
China flying crane, New Hope Dairy Co.Ltd(002946) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , China Resources beer, Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) .
Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) : a new journey at room temperature
Company profile: Mengniu holding cheese leader, repurchase for equity incentive. As of July 9, 2001, Mengniu held 147 million shares, accounting for 28.47%, becoming the controlling shareholder of the company. On December 1, 2001, the company issued a repurchase announcement and planned to repurchase 5-10 million shares at a price of no more than 79.39 yuan / share for the implementation of equity incentive plan or employee stock ownership plan.
High income growth, performance release, and expenses remained stable during the period. Benefiting from the large-scale rise of the cheese stick Market and the company's leading position, the company's 21q1-3 revenue was 3.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68%. The rhythm of performance release was steady. The company's 21q1-3 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 140 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 171%. Benefiting from the rapid growth of high margin cheese, the gross profit margin of 21q1-3 company rose to 37.8% and the net profit margin rose to 5.0%. As the development of cheese stick market is still in the stage of horse racing and enclosure, the company's sales expense rate remains high, 21q1-3 is 24.4%. During the period of 18-21 q1-3, the expense rate of the company remained stable, and the sales + Management + Finance + R & D expense rate remained stable at about 33-34%.
Industry analysis:
Dairy consumption continues to upgrade, and cheese penetration is increasing. The growth rate of cheese market far exceeds the overall growth rate of dairy industry. It is expected that after the launch of the new national standard, leading enterprises are expected to further improve their market share.
BC needs two wheel drive, and local leaders rise strongly. Compared with overseas countries, the proportion of C-end of Chinese cheese is expected to increase. In China's cheese market (B + C total), the market share of Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) brand has rapidly increased from 3.9% in 18 years to 27.7% in August 21, surpassing Briggs & Stratford and ranking first in the industry.
Ten times the space of the 100 billion market, and the giants enter and expand together. Based on the calculation of per capita consumption and penetration rate, we judge that the future 100 billion cheese market can be expected, which corresponds to at least ten times the current space. Using the two methods of penetration and terminal network effort, we made a multi scenario analysis and calculation on the market space of constant + low temperature cheese sticks. Under the neutral assumption: we judge that the steady-state market space (sales caliber) of constant + low temperature cheese stick is about 40 billion, which is converted to the statement caliber of about 26 billion.
Advantage barrier
Brand building is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people and the ability to win customers continues to improve. Multi channel and multi-media, all-round brand construction. Classified precision marketing to seize the user's mind. Promote cheese education and broaden consumption scenes.
Low temperature is stable and normal temperature is accelerated, and Chinese cheese is stable and far away. Fine at low temperature
