Key investment points
Interpretation of important events: Weiya's tax evasion is not expected to have a great impact on the cosmetics industry. This year, almost all of tmall's Top50 beauty brands cooperated with Weiya or Li Jiaqi, and most of them cooperated with the two anchors at the same time, but we expect that the event will have a limited impact on most brands. 1) Limited impact on Revenue: according to the overall judgment, the contribution of most brands from super head live broadcasting room accounts for single digits to 20% of omni-channel Gmv, which is still controlled at a reasonable level. It does not rule out that the proportion of individual brands is very low or very high. If the proportion is very high, we should pay attention to the risk of continuous growth of performance next year. 2) The impact on profits may be lower: the main reason is that the marketing expenses of super anchor are high, and the net interest rate of super anchor is usually low.
Investment advice
Cosmetics: this week, the cosmetics investment strategy in 2022: embracing the leader and nuggets, focusing on three main investment lines, was released.
Main line 1: excellent fundamentals, high certainty of performance growth + the leader of subdivision track with fast compound growth in the next two years. It is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , etc.
Main line 2: cutting edge small ticket, high elasticity of undervalued value and strong explosive growth force. It belongs to "small lotus talent exposed sharp corners" in the industry. It is expected to welcome Davis double click. It is recommended to pay attention to Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) .
Main line 3: upstream high-quality manufacturing, benefit from the release of production capacity next year, or the products enter the price increase channel, the performance inflection point is the key verification period, or meet the bottom rebound market. It is recommended to pay attention to Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) , Jahen Household Products Co.Ltd(300955) , Fujian Green Pine Co.Ltd(300132) .
Medical beauty: the policy has become stricter, and the industry has entered the era of constant strength of the leading players in the subdivision track from the blooming of a hundred flowers in the first half of the year: the medical beauty underwater market turns to the water, restricts capital speculation, effectively curbs the bad currency in the industry, expels good currency, and the survival of the fittest.
Upstream end: product competition intensifies, and new product iteration and product matrix are the winners and losers. From the perspective of many new products such as letibao, Gemini needle, angel needle and girl needle this year, product positioning is very important. On the one hand, the competition in the direction of subdivided track is relatively weak; On the other hand, the product upgrading direction effectively hedges the downstream and upstream of the gross profit margin under the price war. It is no longer just the logic of large single products, but effectively creates a product portfolio according to the product life cycle.
Downstream end: epidemic impact + strict supervision to promote industry reshuffle and accelerate the expansion of regional leaders. In the short term, compared with the upstream of the industrial chain, the barriers and profitability of the downstream are at a disadvantage. However, with the intensification of the upstream price war and the collectivization of downstream institutions, some profits will be transferred to the downstream of the industrial chain; In the long run, with the increase of penetration, the industry will transition from supply to demand to demand to supply, and the customer acquisition cost is expected to be compressed. After the cooling of the primary market, the regional leaders will accelerate the national expansion, and the fine group is expected to break through.
Risk statement
Terminal retail is less than expected; Repeated epidemic situation; Intensified industry competition, etc
