Investment advice
We are optimistic that the penetration rate of folding screen mobile phones will continue to improve, driving the rapid expansion of the demand of flexible screen, UTG glass and hinge industries. It is recommended to pay active attention to Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) , Lens Technology Co.Ltd(300433) , Jiangsu Gian Technology Co.Ltd(300709) , Nbtm New Materials Group Co.Ltd(600114) .
Industry comments
On December 23, 2021, Huawei released its first vertical folding screen mobile phone Huawei P50 pocket, which weighs 190g, is small and sells for 8988 yuan Much lower than the Huawei mate x2 launched in early February (the selling price is 18000 yuan). On December 15, oppo released its first folding screen mobile phone, find n, with a selling price of 7699 yuan. On August 11, Samsung released a new folding screen mobile phone, Galaxy zfold3 and Galaxy Z flip3, with a selling price of 14999 yuan and 7599 yuan respectively. It is expected that glory and vivo will also release folding screen mobile phones in early 2022, and apple is expected to release folding screen mobile phones in 2023 。
2021 is the first year of folding screen mobile phones, with a sales volume of 7.5 million and a better user experience & the price continues to sink. It is expected that the sales volume will exceed 50 million in 2025. 1) According to DSCC, Samsung's new machine drives the explosive growth of Q3 folding screen mobile phones in 2021, with a shipment of 2.6 million units. Samsung accounted for 93%, Galaxy Z flip3 accounted for 60%, and Galaxy Z fold3 accounted for 23%. Huawei's market share is 6%, The models on sale are mainly mate x2 (the selling price is 18000 yuan). It is estimated that the shipment volume of Q4 folding screen mobile phones will reach 3.8 million in 2021, accounting for 95% of Samsung. 2) it is estimated that the shipment volume of folding screen mobile phones will reach 7.5 million and 17.5 million in 2021 and 2022, and the industry will grow rapidly. Considering that the selling prices of existing folding screen mobile phones are higher than US $1000, from the perspective of consumer purchasing power, the world will be more than US $1000 in 2020 The shipment volume of mobile phones reached 70 million, corresponding to the penetration rate of folding screen mobile phones in high-priced mobile phones reached 10% in 2021. We think that if the penetration rate exceeds 10%, it will enter a sweet period. Considering that folding screen mobile phones have the advantages of large screen and portability, In addition, the user experience is better in specific scenarios (split screen, hovering and folding), and the price of superimposed folding screen mobile phones is gradually sinking. It is expected that the sales volume of folding screen mobile phones is expected to exceed 50 million in 2025.
The increment of folding screen mobile phone is mainly reflected in the fields of flexible screen & UTG glass and hinge.
Flexible screen & UTG: 1) the flexible screen of Samsung folding screen mobile phone is provided by Samsung, and the inner screen of oppo folding screen mobile phone is provided by Samsung It is also protected by Samsung's UTG (ultra-thin glass). The display screen is supplied by BOE and protected by Corning gorilla glass. The flexible screen of Huawei folding screen mobile phone is supplied by Visionox Technology Inc(002387) and the protective film is made of CPI. 2) the flexible screen is the most critical part of folding screen mobile phone. At present, enterprises with flexible screen production capacity in China include BOE, TCL, shentianma and Visionox Technology Inc(002387) And other enterprises. 3) CPI and UTG are the same as the outer protective screen. UTG has better light transmittance and wear resistance, but the cost is higher. In 2020, the price of Schott's UTG glass purchased by Galaxy Z flip (selling price over 10000 yuan) released by Samsung will reach US $40. We expect that in the future, with the increase of scale effect and localization rate, the price of UTG glass is expected to drop to 150 yuan. Assuming that the UTG penetration rate will reach 100% in 2025, the corresponding incremental market will reach 7.5 billion yuan in 2025. At present, enterprises with UTG technology reserves in China include Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Lens Technology Co.Ltd(300433) and other enterprises.
Hinge: 1) oppo adopts the quasi vertebral hinge technology, with a cost of more than 600 yuan, which is three times that of other hinges, and is supplied by Amphenol. Huawei uses water drop hinges, and its core component suppliers include Anhui Tatfook Technology Co.Ltd(300134) . 2) Hinge assembly processes include MIM (metal injection molding), liquid metal and CNC processes, among which MIM is more suitable for producing precision parts with complex structure. It is expected that the incremental market brought by folding screen to MIM industry will reach 1.5 billion yuan in 2025. Related enterprises mainly include Jiangsu Gian Technology Co.Ltd(300709) , Nbtm New Materials Group Co.Ltd(600114) (Shanghai Fuchi under the company) and Shenzhen Sunway Communication Co.Ltd(300136) (alimente under the company).
Risk tip: the penetration rate of folding screen is lower than expected, the industry technology changes, and the industry competition intensifies the risk.
