Industry perspective update:
Home furnishing: Recently, the head enterprises have begun to put forward the strategy of “whole customization”, the strategy and channel reform, or the main theme of the home furnishing industry in 2022. Under the strategic upgrading of customization + finished product integrated sales, the channel, supply chain and manufacturing advantages of the head enterprises will become more and more obvious, and it is difficult for small and medium-sized brands to fully follow up, so the industry concentration may be accelerated. Transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities this week (12.18-12.24) the year-on-year decline was – 14.2%, and the decline narrowed. Although the real estate sales and new construction data have not been significantly improved on the whole, the completion data in November has become positive in a single month, and the overall background ensures the completion and delivery, we don’t think it’s necessary to be too pessimistic about the overall demand of the household industry next year, and the current valuation of the household sector has fully reflected the sadness of the real estate It is expected that with the bottom of real estate policy & the bottom of household expectation proved, the safety margin is prominent, and we continue to be optimistic about the current layout opportunities of household head companies. In addition, it is also suggested to pay attention to the profit restoration of export household enterprises next year.
New type of tobacco: in terms of HNB sector, Huabao international still won the bid one after another this week, and the risk points are gradually eliminated. As a whole, the expectation of better development of China’s HNB industry in the future remains unchanged, and it is still in the policy waiting period. In terms of atomization, Yueke was selected as a “specialized and special new” enterprise in Guangdong Province in 2021. We still maintain our previous view. After the publication of the draft of national standards and management methods, the current channel is still dominated by inventory clearance. Before the promulgation of the final regulations, the uncertainty of brands may increase. Although the growth rate of head manufacturers in China is still unclear in the future, the certainty of overall business development and pattern optimization will increase, The Chinese business of leading manufacturers is expected to usher in substantial improvement after the final implementation of the policy.
Papermaking: the demand order of pulp paper is weak, the pressure of box board paper to warehouse is large, and there are too many disturbances at the supply end of pulp price, waiting for the demand to improve. 1) Operating angle: the operating rates of coated paper and double offset paper were + 0.95% and – 0.73% month on month, the operating rates of white paperboard were + 0.53% month on month, and the operating rates of box board corrugated paper were – 2.38% and – 1.13% month on month respectively; 2) Inventory angle: the inventory days of coated paper and double offset paper are + 2.8% and + 2.7% respectively, the inventory of white cardboard is – 0.08%, and the inventory of box board corrugated paper is + 9.7% and + 12.9% respectively; 3) Cost side: Recently, due to the disturbance of many factors on the supply side, the pulp price rises narrowly, some pulp mills prolong the shutdown time, and the short-term futures price may be affected by the spot price. However, from the perspective of medium-term supply and demand, it is difficult for the pulp price to rise.
Pets: xinruipeng, the leader of pet medical treatment, entered the pet Internet hospital, and the head enterprise accelerated horse racing and enclosure. Recently, xinruipeng launched the online consultation platform “good veterinarian a Wen”, which is provided with 24-hour medical consultation and consultation services by licensed veterinarians online, and linked with more than 1000 pet hospitals in more than 90 cities to share high-quality pet medical resources. The overall industry pattern of pet hospital is scattered, and there is still much room for development in the direction of cost procurement and service standardization. The head pet medical leader has started the M & a strategy. It is suggested to pay attention to the development of industry leaders xinruipeng pet medical and Ruipai pet.
Investment advice
Home furnishings: recommend Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (Integrated Business & platform), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (concentration of domestic sales share & export profit elasticity), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (the expected end has been realized, and there is a large space for valuation and repair).
Electronic cigarette: recommended by Warburg International (China’s traditional flavor industry, leading in the field of HNB flavor and thin film, next year, overseas business is expected to take the lead and China will have huge space after opening up in China.
Papermaking: it is recommended to pay attention to Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) (special paper price increase & pulp price decline & HNB policy expectation is gradually clear, Laizhou project is signed to increase the performance for 22 years, and the compound growth rate of the main industry is expected to be 25% + from 2022 to 2024).
risk factor
The extent and duration of the slowdown in China’s consumption growth exceeded expectations; Real estate sales have been shrinking sharply for a long time; The rising range and time of chemical raw material prices exceeded expectations; The exchange rate fluctuated sharply.
