Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan retail trade index rose 1.31%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.70 percentage points. From the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the social zero in November was + 3.9% year-on-year. Affected by epidemic factors, the growth rate decreased by 1.0 PCT compared with October. We believe that in the short term, the emergence of the new strain Omicron superimposed on the winter epidemic counterattack has brought uncertainty to the consumer market. However, with the more accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control and the gradual implementation of the “stable growth” economic policy, China’s consumption is expected to return to a stable growth trend. It is suggested to pay attention to: ① medical beauty: there is broad potential space on the demand side and stricter supervision on the supply side, The upstream has strong profitability and good competition pattern, and focuses on the investment opportunities brought by the rapid expansion of leading enterprises through technological progress, category expansion and channel sinking; ② Cosmetics: beauty value economy superimposes the rise of domestic cosmetics. It is suggested to pay attention to cosmetics companies that actively expand brand and category matrix, pay attention to diversified marketing and omni-channel layout; ③ Gold jewelry: the epidemic situation accelerates the industry integration, channel reform and the improvement of multi scene penetration, which is good for the leading enterprises of gold jewelry; ④ Mother and baby: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentives. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and baby racing track in advance.
Key investment points:
Market review: last week From December 20 to December 26, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.39%, the Shenwan retail trade index rose by 1.31%, and the retail trade index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.70 percentage points, ranking fourth in the rise and fall of Shenwan 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai composite index has risen by 4.17%, the Shenwan retail trade index has fallen by 4.76%, and the retail trade index has lost 8.94 percentage points, It ranked 25th among Shenwan’s 31 primary sub industries.
Industry data: ① social zero data: in November 2021, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by + 3.9% year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate of commodity retail fell, and the catering revenue increased negatively. Among the sub categories, the retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics of units above the quota were + 5.70% and + 8.20% respectively year-on-year. ② Raw material price data: last week, gold rose $10.35 to $1808.35/oz, and silver rose $0.51 to $22.87/oz. ③ E-commerce data: November 2021, The turnover of Taoxi platform cosmetics (including beauty and skin care and color makeup) was 66.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10%, and the turnover of jewelry was 9.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4%. In terms of beauty makeup, the international and Chinese brand Gmv showed differentiation year-on-year in November, and the Chinese brand Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Caitang, love fire, Cuddy and mibel performed better; In terms of jewelry, Hong Kong and domestic brands performed well, and the growth rate of designcircles, Laomiao, Caibai and Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) under domestic brands Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) was bright.
Important announcements of listed companies: reduction of holdings by Haohai biology and Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) shareholders; Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) equity repurchase and joint investment; Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.Ltd(603214) the chairman resigned; C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) share repurchase; Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles Co.Ltd(002762) equity sale. Important industry events: ① in mid November, China’s retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry increased by 5.7% year-on-year, reflecting the steady recovery of its retail industry; ② In November, the overall retail passenger flow index decreased by 30.9% year-on-year; ③ Cosmetics import rules have changed and will be implemented in January next year.
Risk factors: the risk of resurgence of epidemic, less than expected recovery of consumption and intensified industry competition.
