The investment opportunities in the communication industry will shift to the new generation of ICT industry. The supply chain of equipment manufacturers is more of a structural market. The growth investment opportunities will come from the integration of communication and vertical industries, including new industries such as aiot, cloud computing, digital energy and smart cars.
Key targets: China Mobile (operator), Zte Corporation(000063) (main equipment supplier), Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) (Internet of things module), Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control Co.Ltd(002402) (intelligent controller), Kehua Data Co.Ltd(002335) (IDC).
Industry perspective
5g investment turns to demand driven, focusing on investment opportunities in subdivided fields such as operators, main equipment manufacturers, optical communication and VR. The fundamentals of the operator sector show a trend improvement, and it is in a global depression in terms of valuation. The main equipment manufacturers with increased market share and improved profitability are still the preferred investment targets of 5g. The prosperity of the optical communication market has rebounded from the bottom. It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of data communication optical module. VR terminals break tens of millions, accelerate ecology and application, and benefit upstream chips and Chinese ODM / OEM manufacturers in the medium and short term.
The cloud computing industry chain has been improved, focusing on new applications and structural investment opportunities. Benefiting from the construction of meta universe and the improvement of supply chain, The global cloud computing giant's capital expenditure will maintain a 17% growth in 22 years (Dell'Oro), and China's yuan universe related cloud infrastructure investment will reach US $81.4 billion in 2025 (IDC). The development of China's leading cloud computing manufacturers may slow down. Neutral cloud service providers enjoy the dividends of digital economy development, and edge clouds are expected to become a new driving force for growth. With the tightening of IDC energy consumption indicators, the market concentration will increase, leading manufacturers are expected to seize the market clearing opportunity, and there are structural investment opportunities in the middle and upper reaches of IDC board. The server market as a whole has warmed up and the public computing infrastructure Implement investment and policies to promote the growth rate of China's server market to exceed the global average. With the acceleration of localization substitution, the market share of Chinese manufacturers such as Inspur and Xinhua will continue to increase. In the SaaS field, general-purpose ERP manufacturers seize the opportunity of Enterprise Cloud transformation, and several benchmark projects have been successfully implemented, which is expected to break the monopoly of high-end ERP products. Policy driven industrial software, network security, financial technology, tax informatization, energy informatization and other sub tracks continued to enjoy a high boom.
Data center energy ushers in new opportunities under the background of digitization and dual carbon. The data center field has ushered in a period of technological and commercial change, and high computing efficiency and low pue have become the core trend of the industry. We estimate that the global data center infrastructure construction market is expected to reach US $310.5 billion by 2025 and US $403.6 billion by 2030. The CAGR of server, storage, refrigeration system and distribution system in the past ten years are 6%, 6%, 20% and 12% respectively. In the field of temperature control, liquid cooling and evaporative cooling gradually replace the traditional air-cooled heat dissipation technology. The lead and lithium removal and modularization trend of ups in the data center in the field of power supply are determined. The prefabricated modularization on the architecture side has become a new direction for the construction of the data center. The data center on the operation and maintenance side has evolved from single domain intelligence to digital in the whole life cycle, It is suggested to focus on leading companies with technical barriers and scale effects in relevant fields.
Investment in the field of Internet of things is still focused on the connection layer, focusing on China's leading companies enjoying industry certainty and successful business model transformation companies. In the next 3-5 years, the Internet of things will still focus on intelligence and large connection, and the benefit of the perceptual connection layer is most determined, including hardware manufacturers such as sensors, chips, modules, MCU and terminals. Among the three downstream scenarios, 1) home Internet: the outbreak speed is lower than expected, but the trend of intelligence continues to deepen. In the short term, we still look at the interconnection opportunities of intelligent single products and multiple products, and there is broad space for medium - and long-term platform companies. 2) Satellite Internet: China Spacesat Co.Ltd(600118) manufacturing capacity expansion + acceleration of launch process. In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to manufacture first and then turn to the downstream of the industrial chain. 3) Smart car: Electric acceleration, intelligent arms race is in full swing. It is suggested to grasp the investment opportunities of supply chain intelligence from three dimensions: globalization expansion, localization substitution and new track reshuffle.
Risk statement
5g commercial progress is less than expected, the development of public cloud slows down, and the development of intelligent driving industry is less than expected.
