Industry core view:
Last week, the basic chemical index fell 3.44%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.67% in the same period, and the basic chemical index lost 2.77 percentage points to the market in the same period. The petroleum and petrochemical index fell 2.19%, underperforming the market by 1.52 percentage points in the same period. Among them, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) (80.35%), Sichuan Lutianhua Company Limited(000912) (18.68%), Shanghai Huide Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603192) (14.52%), Xilong Scientific Co.Ltd(002584) (13.82%) and Zhejiang Xinnong Chemical Co.Ltd(002942) (11.52%) ranked among the top five; the companies with the top five declines were Fengguang shares (- 32.43%), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (- 16.94%), Hubei Kailong Chemical Group Co.Ltd(002783) (- 16.63%), Jiangxi Chen Guang New Materials Co.Ltd(605399) (- 15.94%) and Zhejiang Oceanking Development Co.Ltd(603213) (- 15.09%).
Key investment points:
R32: last week, the market price of R32 in China rebounded slightly. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of December 24, the market price of R32 in China was 16000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.23%. On the cost side, the price of dichloromethane rose slightly, and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid maintained a high level, giving R32 some price support. In terms of supply and demand, at present, R32 market has sufficient supply of goods, but air conditioning manufacturers at the downstream demand side have limited access to goods, the transaction atmosphere is cold, the overall wait-and-see mentality is strong, and the operating rate of the industry is low. In addition, on December 21, the Taxation Bureau of the Ministry of finance of India announced the final anti-dumping recommendation on R32 originating or imported from China, which will impose anti-dumping duties on the products involved for a period of five years, and the export may be negatively affected. On the whole, R32 prices have begun to stabilize weakly, but they still do not have the power to act in the short term.
Spandex: last week, China's Spandex 40d market price was weak. As of December 24, the market price of ccfei price index spandex 40d was 62500 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 4.58%. There was also an obvious correction in the price difference of spandex. At present, there has been a correction in the cost side, but the support for the price of spandex is limited. On the supply side, the operating rate of spandex last week was 87%, which was relatively high, and the supply of goods in the market was sufficient. However, due to the low operating rate on the demand side and the weak demand for spandex, the inventory in the spandex market accumulates, the delivery is slow, and the price continues to decline. At present, the market bearish mood is still strong, and it is expected that the spandex will continue to be weak in the short term.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, we will mainly recommend three main investment lines: 1 In the context of policy control, the production and supply are becoming more stringent, and the demand side is still supportive, such as pesticides, fertilizers and refrigerants; 2. Rely on new energy, seek industrial transformation and upgrading from upstream materials, lengthen its business cycle and improve its valuation, such as phosphorus chemical industry; 3. High value-added new materials with significant domestic substitution trend, such as semiconductor materials and display materials, which are mainly planned during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Risk factors: the variation of covid-19 strain intensifies the risk of market panic, the overseas epidemic is serious, the epidemic situation in some parts of China is repeated, the demand for refrigerant is less than the expected risk, the demand for spandex is less than the expected risk, and the environmental protection policy further limits the start-up risk of chemical enterprises.
