This week’s market
Overall: this week, CSI 300 rose or fell by – 0.67%, 12 of the 31 industries in Shenwan level rose, the power equipment industry rose or fell by – 7.37%, ranking 31st in Shenwan level industry, and the wind photovoltaic index rose or fell by – 6.06%.
Individual stocks: five stocks in the photovoltaic industry (component stocks of wind photovoltaic index) achieved positive returns, of which Ning Xia Yin Xing Energy Co.Ltd(000862) led the rise by 14.16% and Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) led the decline by – 16.68%.
Valuation: as of December 26, 2021, the PE (TTM) of photovoltaic industry (wind photovoltaic index) is 51.32, and the P / E ratio of electrical equipment industry (Shenwan level) is 53.32.
Price tracking
The price of industrial chain decreased this week:
The price of monocrystalline silicon material fell;
The price of monocrystalline silicon remained stable and the price of polycrystalline silicon fell;
The price of single crystal cells fell, while the price of polycrystalline cells remained stable;
Component prices remained stable.
Industry dynamics
The National Energy Administration printed and distributed the administrative measures for consumption monitoring and statistics of photovoltaic power stations
Sichuan released the renewable energy power consumption plan, with a minimum weight of 6% for non water consumption in 2021
Xinjiang issued the priority power generation and purchase plan for 2022: 1500 / 1350h for photovoltaic supporting projects and 280h for marketization
Investment advice
The price of silicon material maintained a downward trend this week, and the single crystal material decreased by about 5% month on month. In addition, according to the production situation and plan of silicon material enterprises, the output is expected to increase by about 8% month on month in December, and the annual silicon material output in China is expected to be 485000-488000 tons. At present, the low operating rate of silicon wafer can not fully meet the downstream demand. It is expected that the decline of silicon material price will stimulate the increase of silicon wafer operating rate to a certain extent, which will support the stable operation of silicon material price after a certain decline. Since December, China’s new PV grid connection scale has been nearly 5GW. At present, the new PV installed capacity has reached 40gw. This week, the project entered the sprint stage of grid connection, and the annual PV installed capacity is expected to be stable at 45gw. Long term optimistic about the leader of vertical integrated components and the leading inverter enterprises with leading layout in the field of energy storage: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) .
Risk statement
The consumption of new energy is less than expected; The new installed capacity is less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of industrial chain; The implementation of the new energy plan on the 14th five year plan was not as expected.
