Recently, the annual long-term association transactions have been gradually implemented, and the annual transaction results of Jiangsu and Guangdong power markets in 2022 have been publicized. On December 23, the transaction results of Jiangsu in 2022 showed that the total transaction power in 2022 was 264.729 billion kwh, with an average transaction price of 466.69 yuan / megakwh; Among them, the green power transaction volume is 924 million kwh, and the average transaction price is 462.88 yuan / megakwh. On December 25, the transaction data of Guangdong showed that the bilateral negotiation transactions in 2022 totaled 254.164 billion kwh, with an average transaction price of 497.04 yuan / trillion kwh; The transaction volume of renewable energy power is 679 million kwh, and the average transaction price is 513.89 yuan / MWh.
The upward trend of thermal power price is determined, and the profit is expected to be repaired. The annual trading volume of Jiangsu power market exceeded 260 billion kwh, the trading volume increased by 14.5%, and the price increased by 19.4% compared with the benchmark; Guangdong’s trading volume exceeded 250 billion kwh, and the price increased by 9.3% compared with the benchmark. Since this year, the reform of electricity price has accelerated, and the floating range has been adjusted to 20%. Subsequently, operators continue to pour into the market, and the bargaining power of power enterprises will be further enhanced. In the future, with the effective resolution of the coal power game, the degree price difference is expected to maintain a long-term stable state, the profitability of thermal power enterprises is enhanced, the cash flow and dividends of enterprises are stabilized, and the valuation will return to the attribute of public utilities.
The premium of green power transaction is further increased, and the volume and price rise together, opening up the growth space of new energy operators. The average transaction price of Jiangsu green power rose by 0.072 yuan / kWh compared with the benchmark coal price, with an upward degree of 18.38%, and that of Guangdong rose by 0.061 yuan / kWh. In the context of energy transformation, new energy operators are expected to achieve both volume and price increases. In terms of price, the premium of green power transaction continues to expand, which has increased from 0.03-0.05 yuan / kWh of green power pilot transaction in September to 0.061 yuan / kWh of Zhejiang green power transaction, and then to 0.072 yuan / kWh of Jiangsu transaction. In terms of quantity, since mid October, more than 46.34gw of large-scale scenic base projects have been started in China, and distributed wind power and photovoltaic projects have also been continuously promoted. In the future, with the continuous improvement of the policy system, the linkage of the three markets of green power, green certificate and carbon emission right is expected to be strengthened, so as to jointly help improve the market value of the environmental attribute of green power.
Investment advice: maintain the “recommended” rating of the utility industry. According to the recent power trading data in 2022, the upward trend of thermal power price is determined, and the green power premium is further raised, reflecting the prominent structural opportunities of the power sector. In terms of thermal power, the company valuation of “thermal power + new energy” operators still has great room for repair, and the asset value is expected to be revalued; In terms of green power, energy transformation is the general trend, and new energy operators are expected to further open up growth space by increasing both volume and price. The proposal for the new energy target of thermal power transformation focuses on Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , China Resources Power, Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Guangzhou Development Group Incorporated(600098) , Shenergy Company Limited(600642) , and the proposal for the new energy operation trademark focuses on Longyuan Power, China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) , Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) .
Risk tip: policy promotion is not as expected, new energy grid connection and consumption are not as expected, electricity price reduction risk, coal price fluctuation risk and macroeconomic downturn risk.
