Key investment points
Power coal industry chain: this week (December 17-december 24), the supply of power coal was released faster, and the port price was adjusted. The annual price center still maintained a high increase compared with last year. The inventory was higher than the level of previous years. The safety production risk increased, the coal mine safety supervision continued to upgrade in the future, and the supply end may be disturbed.
Metallurgical coal industry chain: Metallurgical coal prices rebounded slightly this week. The port’s main coking coal rebounded slightly, overseas coal prices fell, and the import price difference expanded. Injection coal fell. The demand side is relatively weak, the coke price is flat, and the coke oven operating rate continues to rise. The steel price was fine tuned this week, and the blast furnace operating rate continued to decline. Pay attention to the improvement of counter cyclical regulation policies and real estate regulation and correction measures on the demand side.
Equity view: this week, the sector adjusted slightly, and individual stocks involved in transformation led the increase. After the supply side reform, coal enterprises have accumulated undistributed profits for many years, but due to carbon neutralization and other factors, the investment in the main coal industry is strictly limited. Based on this background, enterprises have spontaneously explored new fields. Through combing, this round of transformation is mainly focused on new energy and new materials. Among them, new energy includes wind power, photovoltaic and hydrogen energy. New materials include energy storage, modern coal chemical industry, etc. Back to the perspective of equity, the current industry fundamentals are solid, corporate profits are strongly supported, and the valuation is also low. In the process of performance improvement driving valuation repair, the transformation may give listed companies more imagination. We are optimistic about Yankuang energy (high elasticity + new energy + modern coal chemical industry), Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) (high elasticity + photovoltaic), China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (whole industry chain + modern coal chemical industry), power investment energy (wind power and photovoltaic), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (hydrogen energy) and Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) (photovoltaic).
Credit view: the fundamentals are improved and the solvency of coal enterprises is improved. In terms of primary issuance, although the situation has improved, it is still difficult for low-grade and weak qualified subjects to issue. In the secondary market, the industry interest margin is lower than the level before the Yongmei incident, but the low-grade interest margin quantile is differentiated from the medium and high-grade. Investors maintain a cautious attitude towards low-grade and weak qualified enterprises. Considering that the current medium and high-grade interest rate spread is low and the available space is limited, it is better to choose the opportunity or take the best policy. For the exposure, the rapid de capitalization of debt and the improvement of debt structure can be considered. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to the impact of resale pressure on coal bonds in 2022.
Risk tips: strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; The price of imported coal fell sharply; The transformation of individual stocks is less than expected; Other disturbance factors.
