On December 24, the aviation industry issued a press release announcing that the scientific research and production test flight of various units has entered the closing stage.
Shenfei: on December 15, Shenfei completed the annual batch production test flight 16 days in advance. In 2021, Shenfei deeply implemented the development strategy of “one heart, two integration, three forces and five modernizations” in the aviation industry, focused on the main responsibility and main business, fully promoted the construction of “legal Shenfei, digital Shenfei and lean Shenfei”, innovated practical and accurate measures, and the annual batch production delivery reached a new record.
Changfei: on December 15, Changfei completed the batch production delivery task in 2021 16 days in advance, successfully achieved the task objectives set by the workers’ congress at the beginning of the year, and successfully achieved the high-quality start of the 14th five year plan.
Xi’an Airlines: on December 22, Xi’an Airlines completed the annual batch production test flight nine days in advance. In 2021, Xi’an airlines will promote the efficiency driven plan management and control mode, carry out production process data management and flexibly apply analytical data; Strengthen the production process management and control ability, and significantly improve the anti risk and anti fluctuation ability of the production and manufacturing system; Explore the flexible allocation mechanism of equipment resources, realize the overall planning of production organization resources, stable process, flexibility and efficiency, realize the new normal of balanced delivery, and finally complete the task delivery of the whole year with high quality.
Hafei: on December 24, Hafei completed the annual batch production test flight one week in advance. In 2021, Hafei will firmly take the road of high-quality development, strengthen the guidance of Party construction, focus on the main responsibility of strengthening the army, accelerate the development of civil aircraft, adhere to innovation driven, widely carry out management improvement, quality improvement and efficiency increase in various business areas, the number of model delivery has reached a record high, and the core competence and governance level of the enterprise have been steadily improved.
In the first three quarters, the economic operation of the aviation industry made steady progress, accelerated progress and improved quality, the main benefit indicators maintained rapid growth, and the product delivery achieved the goal of “2323” advanced equilibrium stage. We believe that the successful completion of the annual batch production and flight test tasks by each aircraft main engine factory in advance shows that the management of the production and scientific research units of the aviation industry is improved, the quality and efficiency are improved, and a high-quality start is achieved for the important cycle of the 14th five year plan. The prosperity of the industry may be further improved in 2022, and the fundamentals can be continuously improved. We believe that the “14th five year plan” will be a period when China’s equipment will quickly change and catch up with international advanced military forces and cutting-edge technology, and national defense equipment will accelerate breakthroughs. The whole aircraft and aeroengine industry are developing towards a new stage of mutual coordination, dual track drive and mutual traction of product models. The batch production model assembly and the conversion of models under research to batch production are accelerating. The aviation sub industry may be in a high-profile development stage for a long time.
Investment suggestion: the two characteristics promote the military industry valuation system to span the short term. From the short term to the response to the long-term value is an important opportunity for the follow-up of the military industry sector. (1) Growth sustainability / national long-term strategic matching: military industry is a standard Changpo heavy snow track; (2) possibility of exceeding expectations: the new model is gradually implemented, and the valuation center has the possibility of continuously exceeding expectations in the short / medium / long term.
Therefore, the military industry has long-term sustained growth under the maintenance or improvement of the valuation center and is a standard Changpo thick snow track. Therefore, we believe that the comparable direction that also takes into account the characteristics of growth sustainability, national long-term strategic matching and expected stable and positive expansion is the new energy track of the same advanced manufacturing industry, such as lithium battery, photovoltaic, etc, We find that the PEG is generally around 1.5-1.7x, while the military industry is generally around 1xPEG. At present, there is no obvious bubble in the valuation of military industry.
Attention:
1. Aeroengine industry chain: opportunities for supply pattern change brought by capacity bottleneck breakthrough and large-scale production of new models, superposition of large-scale production and scale effect: at present, the aeroengine industry chain is in the early stage of large-scale production, which is characterized by the downstream capacity being limited by the middle and upper reaches, and the bottleneck problem is solved by outsourcing manufacturing through general supporting and important matching sets. Host – Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) . Ring forging – Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) ; Precision manufacturing of cast superalloys and key aviation engine parts: Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) ; Wrought Superalloys – Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; Titanium profile – Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) .
2. Missile + Information Industry: 2021 is only the first year of the new model. Pay attention to component enterprises – Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.Ltd(300726) ; Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) ； Radar guidance – Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) ; Nuclear – Guoguang Electric Co.Ltd.Chengdu(688776) ;
3. SOE reform: 2022 is the end of three years of SOE reform. It is suggested to pay attention to the improvement of profit growth and cash flow, which is expected to benefit from the targets of SOE reform: Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Chengdu Spaceon Electronics Co.Ltd(002935) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) .
Risk tip: the order issuance and delivery did not meet the expectations, the new equipment development and assembly did not meet the expectations, the capacity construction process did not meet the expectations, and the reform process of state-owned enterprises did not meet the expectations.
