Core view:
Market review: this week, the mechanical equipment index fell 2.15%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.67%, and the gem index fell 4.00%. Mechanical equipment ranked 22nd in all 28 industries. After excluding negative values, the valuation level of the machinery industry is 26.2 (overall method).
Zhou focus: China Railway released the 14th five year plan for Railway Science and technology innovation to promote China’s railway from a follower to a leader
On December 23, the State Railway Administration issued a notice on printing and distributing the 14th five year plan for railway scientific and technological innovation, Promoting Railway Scientific and technological innovation during the 14th Five Year Plan period, promoting high-quality railway development and supporting the construction of a powerful country in science and technology and transportation.
The goal of railway development in the 14th five year plan is from follower to leader. By the end of 2020, the operating mileage of China’s railways had reached 146300 kilometers, including 37929 kilometers of high-speed railways, and the mileage of high-speed railways ranked first in the world. The development of China’s high-speed railway has experienced a process from introduction, digestion and absorption to re innovation. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the localization rate of high-speed railway equipment has increased year by year, and the Chinese standard system has been released. The Chinese standard EMU covers models ranging from 160 km to 400 km. High speed railway has also become a beautiful business card for China’s high-end equipment manufacturing. In the 14th five year plan, the development task of railway will change from construction scale to scientific and technological innovation, promote high-quality development, and become the original innovation and core technology center in the development of Railway Science and technology in the world.
The development goal focuses on the short board of key core technologies such as chips, basic materials and basic parts, and gathers intelligence to tackle key problems and make breakthroughs. The localization rate of core components of China’s high-speed railway is high. At present, the unfinished localization mainly focuses on core components such as braking system, axle, bearing and IGBT. It is estimated that the annual market space of braking system is about 8-10 billion and that of axle is about 4-5 billion. In addition to the core components to be broken through, the plan also puts forward requirements in the integration of new generation information technology and the upgrading of tunneling technology. In terms of targets, related targets in the field of vehicle equipment are Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) , CRRC Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-Speed Railway Equipment Corporation(000976) ; Relevant targets in the field of TBM China Railway Hi-Tech Industry Corporation Limited(600528) , China Railway Construction Heavy Industry Corporation Limited(688425) ; Relevant targets in the field of communication signals China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited(688009) ; CRRC Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) related to IGBT.
The 2021 central economic work conference emphasizes seeking progress while maintaining stability, and with the mitigation of the epidemic, railway operation is expected to stabilize, driving the bottom recovery of equipment procurement, and there is more room for the development of urban rail industry chain. The central economic work conference mentioned that infrastructure construction should be carried out moderately in advance. Among the machinery sectors, the sectors benefiting from infrastructure investment include construction machinery and rail transit equipment. In rail transit investment, the current incremental construction mainly comes from high-speed rail and urban rail transit. In the long run, urban rail transit has more room for development. By the end of 2020, a total of 45 cities in China had opened urban rail transit, with 7970 kilometers of operating lines. From the perspective of planning and construction progress, the average annual traffic mileage of new urban rail during the 14th Five Year Plan period is expected to exceed 1000 km. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of companies with high proportion of Urban Rail business.
Investment suggestion: in the short term, it is suggested to focus on rail transit industrial chain companies with low valuation and benefiting from the stabilization of infrastructure investment. In the long run, we are still optimistic about the investment direction in line with the general trend of the times, and continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in new energy, hard technology and specialized new directions, including lithium battery equipment, photovoltaic equipment, energy conservation and emission reduction equipment, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) automation, etc. In terms of beneficial targets, lithium equipment field Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , etc; Photovoltaic equipment field Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) , etc; Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) automation Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Bozhon Precision Industry Technology Co.Ltd(688097) , Shenzhen Colibri Technologies Co.Ltd(002957) etc; Specialized in new fields Shareate Tools Ltd(688257) etc.
Risk tip: covid-19 pneumonia epidemic situation is repeated; The degree of policy promotion is less than expected; Manufacturing investment fell.
