The construction of green power system helps to achieve the goal of “double carbon”. The lifeblood of economic development is energy, and the core of energy is electricity. Whether electricity is clean or not will ultimately affect whether China’s “double carbon” goal can be achieved. Therefore, building a green power system based on new energy is the key to achieving the “double carbon” goal. The levelized power cost of wind power and photovoltaic is still in the downward channel, which will further ensure the profitability of new projects. Under the background of rising thermal power prices and the construction of a national unified power market system, the society’s acceptance of new energy power generation has increased, and there is still room to improve the green power premium and consumption ratio. New energy operators and operators of new energy power generation transformed from traditional coal power generation are expected to fully benefit
Cement and glass prices fell. In the northern region, the staggered peak kiln shutdown in the heating season is ongoing. At the same time, due to the downward demand and the need to reduce energy consumption, some southern provinces also began to stagger the peak kiln shutdown, and the downward demand led to the decline of cement price. With the fall of coal prices, the cement coal price difference increased month on month, the profitability of the industry increased month on month, and the year-on-year increase expanded. Float glass spot prices fell slightly this week. Due to the weakening of demand month on month, the inventory of float glass enterprises increased. In terms of cost, the price of soda ash has declined to a certain extent, and the price of fuel has decreased. The profit of float glass increased slightly.
Steel consumption stopped rising and fell, and steel price shocks were weak. In terms of supply, the supply of large steel varieties decreased month on month on Friday, in which the decline of building materials was greater than that of plates, and the reduction of long process was relatively more concentrated. In terms of demand, it is in line with our previous tips. The consumption decreased significantly this week, and the demand contraction is mainly reflected in long wood. Total inventory contracted steadily, falling for seven consecutive weeks to a low level in the year. The price of iron ore at the raw material end rose, coke continued to stabilize, and scrap steel generally rose. The “winter storage” of steel has been opened. Restricted by the high price, traders are not enthusiastic about hoarding. It is expected that the winter storage this year may be weaker than last year, and the steel price or short-term shock will weaken.
The adjustment of the benchmark price of the long-term association plays a key role in stabilizing the upstream and downstream. As the basic energy, coal still plays the role of ballast in the process of energy structure transformation. At present, the market is still worried about the coal sector, the market transaction is not very active, and the sector can not easily touch the bottom. However, considering the arduous task of six guarantees and six stabilities in 2022, it is not ruled out that the government will issue phased policies to stimulate the economy. If this happens, the procurement enthusiasm of downstream chemical industries and other industries will increase, and the operating rate will increase at the same time, The purchase of coal will rebound sharply and promote the improvement of investment sentiment in the sector.
Investment suggestions: environmental protection and public utilities: recommend China Power (2380. HK), Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (600011. SH), China Resources Power (0836. HK), China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) (600905. SH), Henan Bccy Environmental Energy Co.Ltd(300614) (300614. SZ), Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) (600021. SH). Building materials: recommend Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) (002791. SZ), Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) (000786. SZ), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) (002271. SZ), Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) (300737. SZ), Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) (002372. SZ) Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636. SH), China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (600176. SH). Steel: recommended Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) (600019. SH), Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) (000932. SZ), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756. SZ), Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) (600399. SH), Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) (000708. Sz). Coal: recommended China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (601088. SH), Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) (601225. SH), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) (000983. SZ), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (000723), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (600348).
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; Risk that downstream demand is less than expected; Risk that the landing effect of production restriction is less than expected; The risk that the policy strength is less than expected; The risk that the new capacity of the industry exceeds the expectation; Risk of sharp decline in coal price under the pressure of policy regulation
