Key investment points:
Carbon trading system is developing rapidly all over the world. Since the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, the carbon trading system has developed rapidly. Countries and regions have begun to establish carbon trading systems one after another. At present, a unified global carbon trading market has not been formed. In Europe, EU carbon market is the leader of carbon trading system; In North America, there are many regional carbon trading systems coexisting; In Asia, South Korea is the first country in East Asia to launch a national unified carbon trading market, and China also opened a national unified carbon trading market in 2021; In Oceania, only New Zealand’s carbon emissions trading system remains.
The process of China’s participation in carbon emissions trading can be roughly divided into three stages: 1) CDM project stage (2005-2012): CDM project is the main way for China to participate in carbon trading, and the projects are mainly concentrated in wind energy, hydropower and other fields; 2) carbon trading pilot stage (2013-2020): nine regional pilot projects have been launched successively. CCER participates in trading in the pilot areas, and the offset proportion of each pilot project is between 5% – 10%. The cumulative trading volume of CCER is nearly 300 million tons; 3) national carbon trading market stage (after 2021): the national unified carbon market will be opened on July 16, 2021.
Development trend: 1) orderly exit of the pilot: the national carbon trading market will be launched in July 2021, and key emission industries and units in the pilot area will be gradually incorporated into the national market; 2) Stricter policies: at present, the carbon market is in a moderate transition stage, and the follow-up policy control and emission reduction efforts are gradually stricter; 3) Industry expansion: the industry is expected to gradually expand from electric power to petrochemical, steel, chemical and other industries; 4) Paid distribution is gradually opened: the quota of carbon trading market is gradually inclined from free distribution to paid distribution; 5) CCER restart: CCER related methodologies and projects will reopen the application review to expand the emission reduction market by increasing the offset proportion; 6) Carbon financial market is gradually improved: trading products are gradually expanded from spot to futures, options and other derivatives; 7) Space scale of carbon market: assuming that the carbon price in the national carbon market is 40-60 yuan / ton, the market value space of carbon trading will reach 8-24 billion yuan / year, and the scale of futures market will be 80-720 billion yuan / year.
The implementation of carbon emission trading policy is a key step to achieve the dual carbon goal. On the one hand, the establishment of carbon trading market system will help high emission enterprises reduce carbon emissions through energy-saving and emission reduction technologies, and the market-oriented trading means of emission quotas will provide them with arrangement power and economic support. On the other hand, renewable energy enterprises will also benefit from the promotion of voluntary certification mechanism, realize enterprise value revaluation through CCER trading, and focus on renewable energy enterprises High emission leading enterprises and relevant investment opportunities in the field of carbon finance.
At present, the construction of the national carbon emission trading market is still in the early stage of construction, and there is a great demand for the construction of relevant systems. Whether enterprises or financial institutions that want to participate in the carbon market, in order to better carry out carbon trading related activities, there is a growing demand for docking with the national carbon trading system and using the carbon asset management platform. Focus on leading enterprises with accumulated experience in carbon asset management, carbon consulting and related system construction.
Risk tip: the promotion of carbon neutralization policy is less than expected, the construction progress of carbon trading market is less than expected, and the activity of carbon trading market is less than expected.
