Core view
The Ministry of industry and information technology has deployed six key tasks in 2022 and clearly listed steady industrial growth as the primary task. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology deployed six key tasks in 2022, of which boosting the industrial economy will be the first. It emphasizes efforts to boost the industrial economy and provide strong support for stabilizing the economic market.
The Winter Olympics is expected to increase the production restriction, and the winter storage mentality of Beijing Tianjin Hebei steel plant is weak. This week, the output of deformed steel bar decreased significantly by 3.08% month on month, and the consumption decreased significantly by 4.78% month on month. Under the expected increase of limited production in the Winter Olympic Games, the winter storage mentality of Beijing Tianjin Hebei steel plant is weak. This week, the weekly ratio of gross profit per ton of long and short process rebar increased significantly by 4.02% and decreased sharply by 12.89%, mainly due to the rise of scrap price.
At the end of the year, the downstream stock mood was heavy, and the price of lithium carbonate rose rapidly. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 205000 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 7.33% month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 254000 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 6.72% month on month. This week, MB standard cobalt rose slightly by 0.68% month on month, and Co3O4 was flat month on month. In terms of nickel, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was US $20295 / ton, a significant increase of 2.29% month on month.
The European energy crisis continues to ferment, causing concerns about global copper and aluminum supply. This week, the TC / RC of copper smelters was flat month on month, the global refined copper output and primary refined copper output decreased slightly in September, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remained high at 88% in October, and decreased slightly by 1.24pct month on month; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased slightly month on month, and LME aluminum inventory decreased significantly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper increased slightly by 0.9% month on month, and the current price of LME aluminum increased significantly by 4.6% month on month; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang and Yunnan increased month on month this week, while the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Shandong and Inner Mongolia decreased month on month.
Gold: supported by risk aversion and “boots landing”, the price of gold may continue to fluctuate. This week, Comex gold price rose slightly by 0.64% month on month, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold decreased significantly by 6.81% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 1.5%, up slightly by 0.09pct month on month.
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: for ordinary steel, it is recommended to pay attention to the listed companies with low carbon emission intensity and energy consumption per ton of steel on the one hand, and Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) (600019, not rated), Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) (600507, not rated), Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) (000932, buy), and the listed companies with low Pb on the other hand, such as Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) (600808, not rated), Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) (600782, not rated), Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) (000898, not rated) Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) (000825, not rated); For special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to special material suppliers of new energy nuclear power and wind power, such as Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) (002318, buy).
New energy metals: it is recommended to pay attention to enterprises rich in lithium resources such as Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460, not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756, not rated), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) (000792, not rated).
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (601899, buy) benefiting from the increase of smelting and processing fees and the price of sulfuric acid; And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (688388, not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) (600110, not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) (000807, not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) (601677, bought), and Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) (600219, not rated), Shanghai Huafon Aluminium Corporation(601702) (601702, bought) of high-end aluminum enterprises.
Jin: it is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (601899, buy), Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) (600547, not rated), Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) (000603, not rated), etc.
Risk statement
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials.
