Core view:
Macroeconomic pressure still exists. From January to November, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 10.1% year-on-year, and in November, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.8% year-on-year, which is at a low level since 2021; From January to November, the total fixed asset investment increased by 5.2% year-on-year, lower than the growth rate of the previous October; In November, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.9% year-on-year, down 1 percentage point from October and maintained a single digit growth; In November, the export increased by 22% year-on-year, and the growth rate converged; PMI recorded 50.1%, rising above the boom and bust line. On the whole, the performance of various indicators is weak, and the economic pressure still exists.
Government bonds and corporate bonds drive new social finance to pick up, and the growth rate of medium and long-term loans is still weak. In November, new social finance increased by 2.61 trillion yuan in a single month, an increase of 478.6 billion yuan year-on-year, further warming compared with October, mainly due to the rapid growth of government bonds and corporate bonds. Among them, RMB loans increased by 1.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 228.8 billion yuan; Government bonds increased by 815.8 billion yuan, an increase of 415.8 billion yuan year-on-year; Increased corporate bond financing and domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises by 410.4 billion yuan and 129.4 billion yuan, an increase of 326.4 billion yuan and 52.3 billion yuan year-on-year; Off balance sheet financing decreased by 257.3 billion yuan, an increase of 56.1 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of sub sectors, the improvement of mortgage loans has promoted the continuous increase of residents’ medium and long-term loans, and the credit demand of enterprises is still weak. In November, the resident Department added 733.7 billion yuan of credit in a single month, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7 billion yuan; Among them, the new medium and long-term loans were 582.1 billion yuan, an increase of 77.2 billion yuan year-on-year. The enterprise sector increased RMB loans by 567.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 213.3 billion yuan; Among them, the new medium and long-term loans were 341.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 247 billion yuan.
The steady growth policy added weight to support the macro economy, and the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates was implemented. After the marginal improvement of the previous policy, the Politburo meeting and the central economic work meeting set the policy for next year, and the steady growth expectation was further strengthened. The Politburo meeting called for efforts to stabilize the macro-economic market and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range. The central economic work conference clearly put forward the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation, and put more emphasis on steady economic growth and early policy, positive fiscal policy and stable monetary policy, At the same time, it is required that cross cycle and counter cycle macro-control policies should be organically combined, and the policy margin in the field of real estate should also be relaxed. On the whole, the improvement of policy margin has helped stabilize economic growth, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, optimize the credit environment, and benefit the stable and positive business environment of banks. The comprehensive RRR reduction in December is expected to promote the optimization of bank debt structure and cost and enhance the ability to serve the real economy. Considering the obvious effect of debt cost reduction, the one-year LPR was reduced by 5bp, which had a limited impact on the bank interest margin as a whole.
Investment suggestions and policies underpin the macro economy, help stabilize credit growth and resolve credit risks of real estate enterprises, and improve the banking business environment. Considering the weakening of provision provision, the release of volume and price pressure and the rapid development of wealth management business, it is expected that the bank fundamentals are expected to remain stable and support the valuation repair of the sector. Current plate pb0 63 times, the valuation is at an all-time low, and the allocation value is prominent. We continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the banking sector and give a “recommended” rating. In terms of individual stocks, continue to recommend China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (600036), Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) (002142), Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) (600926) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) (601128).
