Weekly view:
The central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission encourage high-quality real estate enterprises to acquire high-quality projects of real estate enterprises in danger: on December 20, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued the notice on doing a good job in M & a financial services for key real estate enterprise risk disposal projects, encouraging banks to carry out M & a loan business in a stable and orderly manner.
We believe that the financial support policy for M & A in the industry will accelerate industry integration. Under the pressure of liquidity, risk real estate enterprises accelerate the disposal of assets and recover cash to avoid the spread of default risk. On the other hand, high-quality real estate enterprises realize the integration of project resources in the industry by virtue of financing advantages. Under the background of increasing downward pressure in the current market, radical real estate enterprises that relied on highly leveraged expansion in the past will gradually be absorbed by stable real estate enterprises under liquidity pressure.
The third land supply in many cities ended: (1) on December 24, the license of the third centralized land supply in Wuhan was withdrawn, one was traded at a premium, and the other 45 were traded at the reserve price. (2) on December 24, 19 of the 27 plots of land for the third centralized land supply in Shenyang were sold at a premium. (3) on December 23, all the reserve prices of 11 plots of land for the third centralized land supply in Tianjin were traded at the reserve price. (4) On December 22, 35 plots of land for the third centralized land supply in Hangzhou were sold without auction, and 9 were sold at the reserve price; 26 were sold at a premium, of which 24 reached the top. (5) on December 22, after Changsha terminated the transfer of 3 plots, 22 plots were sold at the reserve price and 1 at a premium. (6) on December 22, 9 of the 12 plots in Changchun were sold at the reserve price.
In addition to Hangzhou, the willingness of real estate enterprises to acquire land in the third round of centralized land supply is weak. Benefiting from the reduction of the upper limit of premium rate, the change of the proportion of self holding to lottery and the increase of sales price limit, the land transaction in the core area of Hangzhou has improved significantly. Compared with the first two rounds, the third round of land profitability in Hangzhou has been significantly repaired, and the increase of bidding enterprises has driven the transaction premium rate upward. We believe that under the background of great financial pressure and low land acquisition willingness of real estate enterprises, the centralized land supply rules will usher in continuous improvement.
We believe that the current industry boom is facing continuous downward pressure, and the excessively tight real estate regulation policy will continue to correct the deviation. Meanwhile, in the first half of 2022, under the background of increasing pressure on the maturity of real estate dollar bonds, the integration within the industry will speed up. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of optimizing the competition pattern of the land market while improving the regulation policies of the head real estate enterprises. Recommend A-share leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , and H-share growth real estate enterprises Greentown China and Xuhui holding group.
Industry tracking
Sales review (12.18-12.24): focus on monitoring 33 cities, with a total transaction area of 5.088 million m2, an increase of 9.1% over the previous week; in 2021, a total transaction area of 238.461 million m2, an increase of 8.8% over the same period last week. Among them, the first tier cities had a transaction area of 1.07 million m2, an increase of 23.9% over the previous week, a total transaction area of 42.662 million m2 in 2021, an increase of 15.5% over the same period last week; the second tier cities had a transaction area of 2.549 million m2, an increase of 7.9% over the previous week, and an increase of 15.5% over the The total turnover was 113.73 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 17.0%; The turnover of the third tier cities was 1.469 million square meters, an increase of 2.2% over the previous week. The cumulative turnover in 2021 was 82.069 million square meters, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3.4%.
Land supply (12.13-12.19): the planned construction area of land and homestead supply in Baicheng is 1.07 million m2. In 2021, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 1155.27 million m2, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 24.7%, and the supply-demand ratio is 1.47.
In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng is 2167 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 2859 yuan / m2, a month on month decrease of 37.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9%.
Land transaction (12.13-12.19): the planned construction area of residential land transaction in Baicheng is 6.08 million m3, with a cumulative transaction of 786.28 million m2 in 2021, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 26.1%.
In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 2885 yuan / m2, a month on month decrease of 35.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 21.3%, and the overall premium rate was 1.9%. In 2021, the average floor price was 5178 yuan / m2, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, and the premium rate was 12.8%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tightened more than expected; Regulatory policies tightened more than expected.
