Core view
The three-year action plan was released, and the whole machine “chain length system” led the development of supporting industries: on December 20, Three year action plan for the construction of Shanghai civil aviation industry chain (2022-2024) Officially released. According to the three-year action plan, in the future, Shanghai will give full play to the leading and driving of complete machine manufacturing to the industrial chain, accelerate the R & D and production of large passenger aircraft, promote the innovation of navigable aircraft products, and support the integrated application of UAVs. In terms of industrial chain support, it will accelerate aeroengine development, accelerate airborne system integration, increase the supply of key components, strengthen advanced material innovation and promote the development of digital equipment. The goal is to make breakthroughs in key areas of the industrial chain such as key components, advanced materials and high-end equipment by 2024, with the local supporting capacity reaching more than 20%, cultivate a number of specialized, special and new enterprises and become the core suppliers of the civil aviation industrial chain. By 2024, the output value of Shanghai’s civil aviation industry will exceed 60 billion yuan, the independent supply system for key links of the industrial chain will be preliminarily established, and more than 10 scientific and technological enterprises will be cultivated to meet the listing conditions.
Optimistic about the dual-use market space of the aviation industry chain: there is a large demand gap in the military aircraft market. The development of China’s aviation industry has been driven by military demand for a long time. With the expansion of China’s commercial aircraft market, domestic large aircraft and related supporting space are expected to be opened. As the “pearl on the crown of modern industry”, China’s military aeroengine started earlier, the research and development of commercial turbofan engine continues to advance, and the wave of speed-up of localization is coming. Aeroengine forging has high technical and financial barriers, accounting for a high value of the whole engine. Private enterprises are rising rapidly in this field and their market share is expanding. Some enterprises have supplied to international aeroengine giants. Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) has signed long-term agreements with major international aero-engine manufacturers such as GE, Pratt Whitney, Safran, RORO, Honeywell and MTU, and the forgings have been applied to a variety of domestic aero-engines in pre research, in research and in service; Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) signed long-term agreements with Luo Luo and Ge aviation for 11 and 5 years respectively this year. Military and civilian demand continues to release, and the aviation engine forging industry is expected to continue its high growth.
Grasp the main line of aviation equipment investment, and the independent and controllable growth of military electronics is high: 1) the contract liabilities of the main engine factory + verification of advance receipts, and the growth of the aviation industry chain will continue to be realized. The performance transmission is effective. From the main engine plant and engine system, to the engine body system and parts, and then to the upstream raw material plate, the whole industry chain has strong momentum and certainty. The OEM pays attention to Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ; Body system concerns Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) ; Aviation parts focus on Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) ; Metal materials focus on Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) . 2) The certainty of missile weapons and equipment benefits from practical military training. The independent control of military electronics in the field of high-end equipment brings high growth. We pay attention to Chengdu Tianjian Technology Co.Ltd(002977) , Beijing Relpow Technology Co.Ltd(300593) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Chengdu Corpro Technology Co.Ltd(300101) , Beijing Fjr Optoelectronic Technology Co.Ltd(688272) .
Risk warning: the epidemic situation fluctuates and the military expenditure investment is less than expected; Equipment R & D progress and procurement progress are less than expected; Mass production leads to price decline; Industry competition intensifies.
