abstract
Core logic
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the compound growth rate of new energy installed capacity is stable: under the commitment of carbon neutralization and carbon peak, deep decarbonization of the power sector is the only way. We predict that the cumulative installed capacity of wind power will increase from 280 million kW in 2020 to 460 million kW in 2025, and the CAGR will reach 10.4% from 2020 to 2025; The cumulative installed capacity of PV will increase from 250 million kW in 2020 to 630 million kW in 2025, and the CAGR will reach 20% from 2020 to 2025.
The price reduction bonus of equipment manufacturing industry is transferred to operators: the average lcoe of onshore / offshore wind power in China has decreased from US $0.071/0.178/kw in 2010 to US $0.037/0.084/kw in 2020. The lcoe of photovoltaic power generation on the user side / industrial and commercial side decreased from US $0.164/0.063/kwh in 2012 to US $0.063/0.060/kwh in 2020. Looking forward to the future, with the continuous decline of construction cost driven by technological progress and large-scale production and the improvement of superimposed power generation efficiency, the cost of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) power generation is expected to decline further. The price reduction bonus of the upstream equipment manufacturing industry will be transferred to new energy operators.
Short term electricity price is easy to rise but difficult to fall: in terms of supply, power investment has slowed down significantly in the 13th Five Year Plan period, and the main incremental new energy power generation output in the future is unstable; In terms of demand, power consumption continues to grow, and there is still much room for improvement. We judge that the future power supply and demand pattern will remain in tight balance, and the electricity price is expected to maintain the current level or rise.
Marginal catalytic factor
The price of silicon is loose, and the price of photovoltaic modules is expected to decline: the cost of photovoltaic modules accounts for about half of the construction cost of the power station. Therefore, in the context of the sharp rise in the upstream prices of the photovoltaic industry chain this year, the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity has been restrained to a certain extent. At present, the price of silicon material has been loosened. At the same time, the quotation at the component end continues to decline. On December 17, SDIC (Hainan) new energy Co., Ltd. announced the successful candidates for the procurement of photovoltaic modules of Wenchang Longlou 100MW fishery (Agriculture) light complementary project, and the quotations have been reduced to less than 1.85 yuan / watt. We expect that in the future, with the decline of module prices, the inhibition of high construction costs on the growth of photovoltaic power generation installation is expected to be alleviated.
Under the catalysis of parity projects and policies, the transaction volume of green power in a narrow sense is expected to increase: on the supply side, the parity projects of wind power and photovoltaic are expected to increase, and the types of other tradable projects are expected to increase, and the projects with subsidies will also be included in the transaction scope when the waiting mechanism is perfect and the time is ripe, which is expected to further boost the supply of green power. On the demand side, the company has the needs of transformation and upgrading and improving the international competitiveness of products, and the demand for green power is expected to increase. In addition, the market transaction frequency is expected to rise further in the future. Therefore, we believe that the transaction scale of green power market is expected to continue to grow in the future.
Investment advice
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the installed capacity of scenery is expected to increase significantly. With the catalysis of green power policy, the transaction volume of green power is expected to continue to grow.
Price, power supply and demand will remain tight, and electricity prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall.
Overall, new energy operators are high-quality targets with stable volume and price rise, and their valuation is expected to increase rapidly.
In terms of specific targets, it is suggested to focus on [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H)], [China Resources Power], [ Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) (a + H)]. The new energy operator is suggested to focus on [Longyuan Power] [ Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) ] [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] [ Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) ] [ Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) ].
Risk tips:
The policy implementation is not as expected, the risk of electricity price reduction, the risk of coal price fluctuation, the slowdown of industrial technological progress, the intensification of industrial competition, etc
