The prices of many products fell. On the other hand, the attention of semiconductors and new energy materials continues to increase.
Industry trends:
Among the 101 chemical varieties tracked this week, the prices of 24 varieties increased, 43 varieties decreased and 34 varieties remained stable. The top five varieties were dichloromethane, epichlorohydrin, ionic membrane caustic soda, liquid chlorine and NYMEX natural gas; The top five varieties were R134a, formaldehyde, spandex 40d, butadiene and light soda ash.
WTI crude oil closed at US $73.76/barrel this week, and the closing price rose by 4.30% this week; Brent crude oil closed at US $75.59/barrel, closing up 2.82% this week. The market's concerns about the impact of Omicron epidemic gradually subsided, the decline of EIA crude oil inventory was greater than expected, and WTI oil price rose to a high in recent January this week. As of the week of December 17, EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 4.715 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 2.633 million barrels. In the future, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to speed up taper remains unchanged, Iran's crude oil shortage is difficult to enter the international market, the rising vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine booster or the acceleration of governments' liberalization of epidemic control. It is expected that the short-term oil price will still be dominated by high shocks.
The price of DMF returned to the upward trend this week. As of Friday, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the quotation of DMF in East China market was 16400 yuan / ton, and the closing price increased by 5.81% compared with last week and 106.94% compared with the low of 7925 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year. In terms of demand, the downstream slurry industry actively rushed to work at the end of this week, DMF purchased rigidly on demand, and artificial leather manufacturers mainly prepared goods annually. In terms of supply, the average operating load of DMF in China this week was 81.58%, down 0.29% from last week. During the shutdown and maintenance of Henan Junhua (30000 T / a) and Eastman chemicals (40000 t / a), Shaanxi Xinghua was affected by the epidemic, the logistics was poor, and the load of Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) and Yangzi BASF decreased slightly. Raw material side: the prices of upstream methanol and synthetic ammonia are weak. The price of methanol in East China is reported as 2730 yuan / ton. This round of methanol has fallen since mid October. The current price has decreased by 35.31% compared with the annual high of 4220 yuan / ton on October 12. DMF price is expected to rise further in the short term supported by the demand side.
Soda ash continued the previous downward trend this week. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the average market price of light soda ash closed at 2485 yuan / ton, with a weekly closing price decrease of 7.69%. Affected by the strong intention to lower the price of the downstream glass industry and the low price of the futures market compared with the spot, the demand for soda ash continued to remain low. Meanwhile, the overall operating rate of the industry this week was 72.94%, Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) alkali industry (1.3 million tons / year) and Anhui hongsifang (300000 tons / year) stopped, Zhongyuan Chemical (1.4 million tons / year) produced at low load, and the docking change time of Jindadi phase II plant in Wuyang area of Jinshan, Henan Province was delayed; On the whole, the supply end of soda ash is still relatively stable. On the inventory side, the total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 1.503 million tons, an increase of 115000 tons month on month. This round of soda ash has been built since the end of October, and the current low inventory has increased sharply by 368.81%. In the medium and long term, with the promotion of the national policy of carbon neutralization and carbon peak, the photovoltaic glass industry line has been put into operation continuously, and the demand for soda ash by photovoltaic glass will increase rapidly in recent three years. Under the condition of limited operating rate and large increase in downstream photovoltaic installed capacity, it is expected that the soda ash price may fluctuate and operate at a high level after the inflection point in the medium term.
Investment suggestions:
This month's view:
Cyclical industries: the price fluctuation of subdivided products increased: as of November 26, the price of only 19% of the tracked products increased month on month; 76% of the product prices fell month on month, with a decline of more than 20% accounting for 19%; Another 5% of the product prices were flat. As of November 26, due to the sharp decline in crude oil prices on that day, WTI prices fell 19.3% month on month, Brent crude oil prices fell 15.9% month on month, and WTI fell below $70 / barrel. Compared with the same period in 2020, the price of about 84% of chemical products increased year-on-year; Compared with the beginning of 2021, the price of chemical products also increased by 91%. Industry data: the PPI index of the chemical industry in October was 119.8, up 3.3% month on month (MOM) from September. Since November, with the relaxation of the policy of limiting production and power and the decline of energy prices, the construction of chemicals has gradually resumed, and the price has decreased significantly month on month. Long term optimistic about the development of leading companies in the context of carbon neutrality.
Growth companies: benefiting from the rapid development of downstream new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other industries, Upstream material (such as EVA / DMC / NMP / PVDF / metal silicon, etc.) the supply is also tight, and the boom duration is expected to be long. On the other hand, China's semiconductor material industry is in a period of rapid development. First, localization may be greatly improved in the last two years; second, in some products, the supply is in short supply this year, or some products have risen due to the influence of raw materials Price; Considering the low performance base before, some semiconductor material companies maintained a high growth rate in the third quarter.
Investment suggestions: looking forward to December, the chemical industry is facing certain adjustment pressure due to the impact of the epidemic and the sharp correction of oil prices. Pay attention to the valuation of private refining, industry leaders and other related chemical enterprises return to a low level again. On the other hand, the attention of sub industries such as semiconductors and new energy materials continues to increase. In the medium and long term, as the profitability continues to exceed expectations, high-quality chemical assets are expected to usher in value revaluation. Recommended stocks: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Zhejiang Huangma Technology Co.Ltd(603181) , Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Lianhe Chemical Technology Co.Ltd(002250) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , etc., pay attention to Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , etc.
December gold shares: Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655)
Risk statement
1) Changes in geopolitical factors lead to sharp fluctuations in oil prices; 2) The global epidemic situation has changed.
