event:
On December 24, 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the regulations on the management of power grid connection operation (hereinafter referred to as the regulations) and the measures for the management of power auxiliary services (hereinafter referred to as the measures), which is the first revision of the auxiliary service management rules since 2006.
Key investment points:
The scope of power auxiliary service subjects is expanded, involving many types of subjects on the power side. In accordance with the relevant requirements of the action plan for carbon peak before 2030 of the State Council, on the basis that the original document is mainly aimed at traditional power plants, the new measures expand the scope of auxiliary service providers to include new energy storage, self owned power plants, traditional high load industrial loads, industrial and commercial interruptible loads, electric vehicle charging networks, aggregators, virtual power plants, etc, In order to meet the needs of the construction and operation of the new power system and adapt to the characteristics of diversified main bodies and benign interaction between source network load and storage of the new power system.
Diversified service varieties are conducive to the consumption of new energy. The new method points out that “during the operation of the spot market, in principle, peak shaving auxiliary services parallel to the spot market will not be set up”; At the same time, considering the development needs of building a new power system, new auxiliary services such as moment of inertia, climbing, stable machine cutting service and stable load cutting service are introduced this time. The new auxiliary services will help to meet the needs of high proportion of new energy and high proportion of power electronic equipment access system, and stabilize the disturbance impact of new energy gap and fluctuation on the operation of power system.
The sharing mechanism of user participation is established, and the price mechanism of ancillary services is expected to be smoothed out. The measures emphasize that for power auxiliary services serving the overall operation of the power system, the compensation cost shall be shared by all grid connected entities such as power generation enterprises and market-oriented power users, and non market-oriented power users shall be gradually included in the scope of compensation cost sharing. In the future, according to the principle of “who benefits and who bears”, the new version of “two rules” will further improve the assessment and compensation mechanism of auxiliary services, and establish a sharing mechanism for user participation. The price mechanism of auxiliary services is expected to be smoothed out, and the price of auxiliary services will be gradually market-oriented.
The scale of auxiliary service market is expected to expand, and it is expected to reach RMB 19.8 billion by 2030. We expect that the introduction of the new “two rules” for power auxiliary services will promote the significant growth of the auxiliary service market. According to the data of the national energy administration, the scale of the national power auxiliary service market was RMB 14.616 billion in 2018 and RMB 13.031 billion in the first half of 2019. According to the relevant forecasts of China Electricity Council and the national energy administration, the power consumption of the whole society is expected to reach 9.5 trillion kWh and 11 trillion kwh in 2025 and 2030. Assuming that the electricity price maintains the national average sales price of 0.6 yuan / kwh in 2018, according to international experience, the proportion of auxiliary service fee in the power consumption fee of the whole society is taken as 3%, and the scale of auxiliary service market will reach 171 billion yuan and 1980 billion yuan respectively in 2025 and 2030.
Investment advice: maintain the “recommended” rating of the utility industry. ① Peak shaving demand is favorable for thermal power with flexible transformation. It is recommended to pay attention to Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , China Resources Power, Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Guangzhou Development Group Incorporated(600098) , Shenergy Company Limited(600642) ; ② The expansion of power auxiliary service market players and varieties will help to promote the consumption of scenery. It is suggested to pay attention to Longyuan Power, China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) , Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) ; ③ The improvement of grid connection requirements has increased the demand for SVG. It is recommended to pay attention to Windsun Science Technology Co.Ltd(688663) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) ; ④ The expansion of auxiliary service market improves the profit of energy storage power station. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) , Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) .
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn risk; Policy promotion is less than expected; The consumption of new energy is less than expected; Electricity demand is less than expected; Uncertainty of future electricity price; The profit of the enterprise is less than expected; The international market is not completely comparable with China. The scale data of auxiliary service market in 2025 and 2030 are only for reference.
