Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) (688276)
The market space of the vaccine industry continues to expand, and the domestic substitution is accelerated by the two-way catalysis of demand + R & D
Look around the world, The vaccine market shows a high growth rate (CAGR of 7.3% from 2021 to 2028) and “variety is the king” (in 2019, the sales of the top 10 heavy varieties in the world totaled US $22.1 billion). China’s vaccine market grew faster, with a compound growth rate of 20.6% from 2015 to 2020; even if covid-19 vaccine was not considered, the compound growth rate could reach 18% from 2020 to 2022. The high growth rate of the industry mainly benefited from the rapid expansion of the incremental market of non immunization planned vaccines. In 2021, due to the centralized national resources for cov vaccination The sales of id-19 vaccine and other types of non immunization planning vaccines were inhibited. In the future, non immunization vaccine manufacturers will usher in performance breakthroughs in three aspects: ① with the end of the universal vaccination of covid-19 vaccine, the vaccination of non immunization vaccine will be restored, and the suppressed vaccination demand will rebound rapidly. ② In the medium and long term, the heavy vaccines under development stored by vaccine enterprises will be approved and listed one after another, ushering in the performance cashing period. Such as 100 grams of blister vaccine, Kangtai’s pneumonia vaccine, Wantai’s HPV vaccine, etc. ③ Additional increment of vaccine export harvest.
The three main products of the company have differentiation advantages and continue to increase performance
Through years of R & D accumulation, the company has launched three main products with high quality and differentiated competitiveness by virtue of four technology platforms. ① Varicella vaccine: the market share is 32% in 2020, ranking first. The implementation of “two needle method” and local immunization plan will expand the market by more than 20 billion yuan. Moreover, the company’s production line of 20 million people is under construction, and the sales volume may reach 1.5 billion yuan in 2025; ② Influenza vaccine: at present, the company is the only manufacturer of nasal spray type live attenuated influenza vaccine in China, with a penetration gap of more than 15 times that of the United States, which brings huge potential market space. It is estimated that the sales volume of the company’s nasal spray influenza vaccine products may reach 2.5 billion yuan in 2025; ③ Human rabies vaccine (Vero cells): the production line upgrade will be completed by the end of 2021 and will resume sales in 2022.
The company’s heavyweight product blister vaccine is coming out soon, and its annual sales are expected to exceed 2.5 billion yuan in 2030
The company has four products under development that have entered the clinical stage. ① Herpes zoster vaccine: at present, there is only one imported product on sale in China. The company’s heavy products may be listed in 2022, which is the first domestic product. It is estimated that the sales will reach 2.5 billion yuan in 2030; ② Liquid nasal spray live attenuated influenza vaccine: the clinical trial will be started soon, the school-age population will be expanded to 18 years old and above, or it will be put on the market in 2023; ③ DPT vaccine: at present, there is no domestic component DPT vaccine on the market, and the company’s products may be on the market in 2025; ④ Lyophilized dosage form crazy vaccine: compared with the current liquid dosage form, it has better stability, longer validity period, easier storage and transportation, or will be put on the market in 2025. In addition, the company has 12 products under research in preclinical stage.
Investment suggestion: for the first time, give the company a “buy (first time)” rating
China’s adult vaccine market has broad prospects. The Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) three main products continue to increase market promotion + capacity expansion. From 2022 to 2025, the company has many products on the market, and the performance is expected to continue to climb. The heavy product herpes zoster vaccine will be put on sale in 2022, driving the company’s medium and long-term sustained and rapid growth. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.395/2.92/3.229 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.2% / 57.2% / 47.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 372 / 574 / 854 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 11.0% / 54.0% / 48.9%; The PE of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 75X / 49x / 33x respectively. The average PE of comparable companies is about 77X. Considering the sustained and rapid development of the vaccine industry, the differential advantages of the company’s influenza, varicella and herpes zoster vaccines and the long-term growth brought by the continuous listing of heavy products in the next few years, we covered the company for the first time and gave the company a “buy (first)” rating.
Risk statement
Risk that covid-19 pneumonia may adversely affect the normal production and operation of the company; Risk of clinical trial failure; The market promotion of new products is less than expected; The product approval was not as expected.
