Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) (603129)
In November, the year-on-year growth rate of large displacement two wheeled vehicles in the industry was + 14%, and the year-on-year growth rate of 250cc + two wheeled vehicles of the company exceeded 100%
According to the data of China Motorcycle chamber of Commerce, 158000 large displacement two wheeled vehicles were sold in mid November, a year-on-year increase of 14%. Of which, 150cc
<排量≤ 250cc 销售 13.2 万台，同比增长 10%；排量>
250cc sold 26000 units, a year-on-year increase of 47%. In November, the company sold more than 3300 > 250cc large displacement two wheeled vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 106% and a month on month increase of + 11%; The market share exceeded 12%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6pct. From January to November, the cumulative sales of domestic 750cc + two wheeled motorcycles exceeded 3300, with a year-on-year increase of 2250%. In November, the sales volume reached 800 + in a single month, and the sales volume of the industry > 750cc maintained a high growth in recent March. We judge that the company's MT800 has entered the starting stage, and the explosion gene is obvious.
The company's overseas sales of two wheeled vehicles were bright in November, and the sales of four wheeled vehicles continued to maintain a high momentum
From January to November, the company's cumulative export sales of two wheeled vehicles exceeded 18000, with a year-on-year increase of 160%. The competitiveness of two wheeled vehicles in overseas markets has gradually become prominent. In November, the company exported 2400 + two wheeled vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 96%. Among them, 1800 250cc + large displacement two wheeled vehicles were exported, with a year-on-year increase of + 205% and a month-on-month increase of 80%, reflecting that the company's products are gradually recognized by overseas customers, especially high-end products can compete with head brands such as the United States and Japan in mature markets. From January to November, the sales volume of domestic four-wheel vehicles exceeded 41000, with a year-on-year increase of 74%, of which the sales volume of domestic four-wheel vehicles exceeded 40000 in November, with a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. In November, the company sold more than 17000 four-wheel vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 115 +%, and the sales of four-wheel vehicles continued to maintain a strong growth trend.
The market share of the United States continues to increase; Us CPI has reached a new high in nearly 40 years, waiting for tariff adjustment
The United States is an important overseas market for the company, and the market share of four-wheel vehicles in North America continues to increase. The consumption of four wheeled vehicles in North America accounts for about 73% of the global consumption, which is the largest single market. From January to November this year, the company sold 147000 four-wheel vehicles, of which exports accounted for 99%. It is expected that the market share of the U.S. market will increase from about 3% last year to 5% this year. We believe that the market share will continue to increase to 10% in the future.
In November, the CPI of the United States increased by 0.8% month on month and 6.8% year-on-year, the highest level since 1982, and the year-on-year growth rate hit a record high. If the US trade policy towards China is adjusted or the company's goods are exempted from tariffs, the company's profitability will be greatly improved.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the net profit CAGR in the next three years is 40%, maintaining the "buy" rating
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 460 / 7.5 / 1.01 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 27% / 64% / 34%, and PE of 48 / / 29 / 22 times. The net profit CAGR from 2021 to 2023 is 40%. Based on the gradual increase of the market share of the company's four-wheel and two wheel vehicles, the company has a deep understanding of consumers and is good at building popular models, and maintains the buy rating.
Risk warning: overseas development fails to meet expectations; Intensified competition in China; Raw materials, sea freight and exchange rate fluctuation risk
