Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) (300286)
Key investment points
Smart meter leader with good business level and technical strength: the company has been deeply engaged in smart power monitoring system and smart meter for 18 years. At present, its business involves four sectors. The revenue side accounts for 50.3% of user smart meter, 20.7% of energy efficiency management system, 16.4% of fire products and 8.2% of power sensor respectively. With the progress of domestic technology, the average sales price of the company's smart meter products has decreased by 34% in the past four years, but 1h2021 still maintains a high gross profit margin of 45.7%, with good business level and technical strength.
Energy efficiency management is in the ascendant, and the penetration rate is expected to gradually improve: with the deep accumulation of smart meter hardware business on the user side, the company has begun to expand an enterprise end energy efficiency management platform combining software and hardware in recent years. Under the carbon emission reduction management system with dual control of energy consumption in China, the energy management system of industrial and commercial enterprises and public buildings will become the infrastructure of energy digitization, and its penetration rate is expected to increase rapidly. The company's existing enterprise customers in schools, hospitals, commercial buildings, industrial, mining, petroleum and other industries are expected to be further transformed into users of energy efficiency management. At present, the company has realized the sales of 14000 sets of systems.
Accumulate microgrid project capacity and help build industrial Internet: with the access of a large number of distributed energy stations to the power grid, the future energy management system will no longer be a simple power consumer, but will cooperate with flexible loads such as distributed photovoltaic and electric vehicles, participate in the integration and interaction of local distribution networks, and provide demand side response services for the power system. In 2020, the company invested 35 million yuan in the establishment of micro grid research institute and plant construction, and developed small systems around application scenarios such as distributed photovoltaic, automobile charging pile and power quality monitoring. The construction and operation experience of micro grid project will gradually improve the product development and market capacity of relevant businesses of the company.
Investment suggestion: our company predicts that the earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.81, 1.10 and 1.45 yuan respectively. The return on net assets was 17.2%, 20.4% and 22.9% respectively, and Buy-A suggestion was given.
Risk tip: the risk of power grid investment fluctuation and the risk of intensified competition in smart meter industry
